Ukraine's three-week-old invasion has recently been countered by an intensification of Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Russian forces have also made steady advances in the battle for Pokrovsk, a strategic logistics hub in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, a diplomatic spat over the more than 30-month-old war is intensifying, with no signs of a breakthrough or peace talks beginning anytime soon. Indeed, the intensifying diplomatic efforts by both sides to shore up international support indicates a continuing lack of willingness to compromise.
On the Russian side, Chinese Premier Li Qiang's three-day visit from August 21 was the most high-profile visit since the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing in May.
Li then traveled to Minsk, where he met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko. Little substantive content was discussed beyond a declaration of intent to further strengthen ties and maintain a high level of cooperation between the two countries. But the meeting sent a clear signal of China's continued support for Russia and its ally Belarus.
The signal was reinforced the day after Li left for Minsk when a high-ranking Chinese military delegation led by Chinese Army Commander Li Qiaoming arrived in Moscow for talks with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the two sides “agreed during the meeting to further strengthen cooperation between the ground forces in various fields.”
Modi's strategy
While Li was travelling from Moscow to Minsk, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Kyiv on August 23. PM Modi is the first Indian head of state to visit Ukraine since its independence more than three decades ago.
This is particularly significant for Ukraine, as India has a complex relationship with Moscow, Beijing and the West and its traditional role as a power broker with significant influence in developing countries.
In July, Modi visited Moscow on his first foreign trip of his third term as prime minister, seeking to strengthen ties with Russia, a longtime Indian ally. His visit was unpopular among Ukraine and India's Western partners.
However, Modi's recent visit to Kiev suggests that things are not going well on either side of the China-led pro-Russian coalition. Prior to his visit to Moscow, Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3-4.
This is partly due to ongoing border tensions between Beijing and New Delhi, and increasingly closer ties between Moscow and Beijing would leave India losing a traditional ally in its rivalry with China, and of equal concern to New Delhi is Pakistan.
India is currently Russia's largest oil buyer, but Russia is reducing its military dependence on Russia by diversifying its arms supplies, in line with growing cooperation among the so-called Quad – India, the United States, Japan and Australia.
The Quad is a key element in Washington's efforts to counter China in the Indo-Pacific region, including efforts to wean India away from China-led blocs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the grouping of emerging economies BRICS.
Notably, Modi has so far refused to condemn Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and has yet to endorse Zelensky's peace plan to end the war, but India at least sent a delegation led by Vice President for National Security Pavan Kapoor to the summit, though it did not sign the final communique from Zelensky's “Ukraine Peace Summit” in Switzerland three months ago.
During his visit to Kiev, Prime Minister Modi reiterated the need for dialogue to end the fighting and offered to help start peace talks, while President Zelensky expressed support for India hosting a follow-up summit in Switzerland.
While recent events may not move India fully into the camp of pro-Western supporters in Ukraine, the visit sends an important signal that New Delhi is perhaps not all that keen to support Russia and China’s views on the war.
India's traditionally influential role in the Global South could help it garner support for Ukraine among countries in the Global South that have been particularly hard hit by rising food, fertilizer and energy prices as a result of the Ukrainian war.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has also achieved some successes in relation to its Western allies: On August 23, US President Joe Biden announced a new military aid package worth $125 million, primarily aimed at strengthening Ukraine's air defenses and replenishing Kiev's supplies of ammunition for the ground war.
On the same day, the US imposed new sanctions on around 400 companies and individuals. This group includes a number of Chinese companies accused of supporting Russian war efforts through the export of dual-use products, but no sanctions were imposed on Indians, in line with efforts to wean India from Russia and China.
Sanctions, based on their track record to date, are unlikely to deal a decisive blow to the Russian economy or persuade Beijing to effectively back down from Moscow, but the issue is likely to be a major part of National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan's agenda when he visits China this week.
Overall, neither Kiev nor Moscow have recorded any notable diplomatic gains or losses recently, but India's cautious moves suggest the situation remains fluid as all sides and their backers seek to consolidate support on the international stage.
At the very least, it shows that everyone believes there is still a lot of work to be done, both on and off the battlefield.
Stephen Wolf is Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
