With the NFL preseason officially over and the first games of the season underway, let's take a look at the Super Bowl odds. It will come as no surprise to anyone that the Kansas City Chiefs are once again the favorites to win the Super Bowl, with odds of +500, slightly lower than at this time last year. They are followed by their Super Bowl LVIII rivals, the San Francisco 49ers, at +600.
Following them at slightly lower odds are the Baltimore Ravens (+1000), Detroit Lions (+1200), Philadelphia Eagles (+1200) and Cincinnati Bengals (+1400), followed by the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers, all tied at +1600.
Of those favorites, the Chiefs, Texans, Eagles and Packers have all seen their odds drop slightly since this season's Super Bowl odds were first released following the Chiefs' win in February. At the time, the 49ers were the favorite at +500, while the Chiefs were at +750. A turbulent offseason has seen the 49ers' odds rise, putting the Chiefs back in the top spot.
So what do we think? Will this finally be the Niners' year? Will Mahomes and company make history by winning three straight Super Bowls? Will Detroit make its first appearance in the big game? Let's take a look at the odds and expert predictions from The Athletic staff.
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Super Bowl LIX Odds
Odds are updated live and provided by BetMGM.
That feeling you just felt — a breeze or a chill down your spine? No, it's not crisp autumn nostalgia, it's a bit of deja vu. Yes, folks, we've seen this movie before. The Chiefs are likely to win their third consecutive championship.
They're the first team to even have a chance at a three-peat since the New England Patriots nearly two decades ago, when New England won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004 but was eliminated from the playoffs in the divisional round. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season despite struggling receivers and did acquire Xavier Worthy with a first-round draft pick, but depth at the position remains a concern, especially with Rushes Rice suspended.
As Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid look to make history, the 49ers look like the best team to crush their dreams, despite preseason troubles. Coach Kyle Shanahan canceled joint practices with the Saints in early August because of various injuries to more than 20 players. Plus, there are ongoing money disputes with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and offensive tackle Trent Williams. But those questions aside, the 49ers return their entire offensive core, with strong players like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and, of course, Brock Purdy. (Purdy, by the way, improved 13 places in our QB rankings this year.)
And Baltimore is perhaps the biggest challenge for the Chiefs, who made it to the Super Bowl. This year they will have to try a defense without defensive coordinator Mike McDonald and see if Zay Flowers can further develop as the No. 1 wide receiver. There are also questions about whether two-time MVP Lamar Jackson can stay healthy. But the potential is there. The Ravens have won more than 75 percent of their games with Jackson healthy (58-19). The run game relies on Jackson's two-way talent, Derrick Henry and a strong tight end corps, so the Ravens may not have to worry as much about the question mark at No. 1 wide receiver.
Next up is Detroit, with the NFC North division on the line. The division title should be between the Lions and Jordan Love's Green Bay Packers. Lions QB Jared Goff has Super Bowl experience, passing for 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns last year. Currently the highest-paid player in the league, Love came through when it mattered last season, throwing 18 touchdown passes with just one interception in the final eight games of the regular season, leading the Packers to a major upset of the Cowboys in the playoffs.
The Eagles and Bengals are in a similar odds bracket to the Lions. The Eagles made it to the Super Bowl in 2022 but lost in the wild-card round last season and have since lost perhaps their most notable player, Jason Kelce. But their offseason moves, which included the acquisition of offensive tackle Mekhi Becton and, most importantly, star running back Saquon Barkley, have seen their odds drop since February. A few easy games early on should give the Eagles a boost.
Despite their tough schedule last year, the Bengals have one of the easier schedules in the league this year, judging by their Super Bowl appearance odds and the number of wins they had last season. If Joe Burrow's wrist is truly 100% again, the Bengals will be a force to be reckoned with in the AFC.
Below them are the Bills, Packers and Texans. I've already mentioned my optimism about the Packers' QB Love. For the Texans and Bills, it all comes down to their quarterbacks. CJ Stroud was outstanding last year despite some issues with the offensive line. Can he do more this year with high expectations on the receivers, including Stefon Diggs? In Buffalo, Josh Allen led the team to a 58-24 record when healthy and starting. Last year, they never lost by more than six points.
Super Bowl expert predictions
We asked two NFL experts, Jon Greenberg and Zach Jackson, to predict who will win the Super Bowl this season.
Jon Greenberg: Ravens (+1000)
As a Steelers fan, this hurts. But I'm trying to pick an alternative to the Chiefs and the third-favorite Ravens intrigue me for obvious reasons. They're still a good value at this point. I was tempted to pick Joe Burrow and the Bengals here at +1400 but I'm concerned about his wrist. I wasn't keen to bet on Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, but I'll be rooting for them on Sunday.
Zach Jackson: Chiefs (+500)
I'm going to be bold here and predict the Chiefs to win. The coaching staff is back. Most of the players are back. Mahomes won a year with a pretty mediocre receiver corps. That problem has been fixed. I know the AFC is a powerhouse, but I still think this team has it covered. Mahomes can win in any weather, in any stadium, in any situation. Sorry if this prediction is boring, but it's not. I think it'll happen again.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes by Kevin Savitas/Getty Images)
