Wednesday, August 28, 2024 | 2:00 AM
Colorado stole the spotlight a year ago during college football's Week 1 festivities, and it seems only fair that the Buffaloes take center stage again on opening night in Week 1 of the 2024 season.
Colorado pulled off the biggest upset of the season last year, beating defending national runner-up TCU, 45-42, in coach Deion Sanders' Football Bowl Subdivision coaching debut. Though the odds were as low as -18, most of the money was bet on the Horned Frogs, who were buoyed by a three-touchdown effort.
“Do you believe it now,” Sanders famously said in his post-game press conference.
Yes, it seems like there are more Colorado believers this year, at least at the start of the season.
Colorado is a 9.5-point favorite to face Football Championship Subdivision powerhouse North Dakota State in the season opener Thursday night at 5 p.m., and unlike last year, Coach Prime's team has money on the line.
The Buffaloes began the game with a slim 7.5-point advantage over the Bison.
Colorado may not finish better than last year's 4-8 season (over/under for wins is 5.5), but they should still go 1-0 this year. North Dakota State is a storied team, but they don't have NFL-caliber players like Colorado quarterback Shedul Sanders or cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter.
With new coach Tim Polasek, this team could be one of the weaker Bisons teams, and after being a Deion Sanders “skeptic” in Week 1 last year and falling victim to the TCU upset, I'm rooting for Colorado this year.
The first bet in this week's column is Colorado -9.5. I don't usually handicap FBS vs. FCS games in this column, but not this time.
And they may need some help with additional picks considering their Week 0 picks were a disaster with a 0-2 record (0-1 in plays, 0-0 in trends, 0-1 in guesses), but there is a long season ahead of them, a lot of games to play, and a lot of money to make.
Read below for predictions for each FBS game in Week 1. Articles on the biggest games and strongest positions are also included. Predictions are categorized in one of three confidence categories, and the line is the best line available for the side selected in Las Vegas at the time of publication. Games at the bottom are listed in order of increasing confidence.
Top Games
North Carolina vs. Minnesota, Over/Under: 55.5. This game will draw a lot of action as the most interesting matchup by default on Thursday, but with both teams facing potential coaching departures, it looks like a fade candidate to me. North Carolina has an established identity and firepower on offense with running back Omarion Hampton, but Minnesota has an equally strong defense with defensive tackle disruptor Jah Joyner. There's not a big enough gap between the two teams to give either team an advantage on the road. Trend: Minnesota +2.
Clemson +13 against Georgia in Atlanta, Over/Under: 49. The last time these two teams met in this game, Clemson played it close, losing 10-3 despite being favored by three points in Week 1 of the 2021 season, but that was the last time the Tigers came even remotely close to the Bulldogs' level. The gap in roster quality has only widened this offseason as Clemson coach Dabo Swinney continues to give, but refuse to take, players from the transfer portal. Trend: Georgia -13.
Penn State vs West Virginia -8.5, Over/Under: 51.5. The Mountaineers have been getting a ton of money since this spread has risen to -12. It makes sense considering the Mountaineers offense, led by quarterback Garrett Green and running back Jahim White, has had a strong practice report, but at the same time, the Nittany Lions have the potential to be even better. This number is probably in the right spot, but Penn State could be worth it if it drops further. Prediction: Penn State -8.5.
Miami +3 vs. Florida, Over/Under: 54.5. Sure, Florida has the toughest schedule in college football history, but that's all anyone will say about them and it won't really matter in Week 1. They're fresh right now and Florida's full roster is comparable to Miami's. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz was statistically better in every passing metric than Miami's highly touted opponent Cam Ward last year despite facing a much tougher opponent. Play: Florida +3.
Notre Dame +2.5 vs. Texas A&M, Over/Under: 46.5. With Notre Dame left tackle Charles Jagusa out for the season and freshman Antoine Knapp in the mix, Notre Dame should dominate the Irish in the trenches. Tasked with blocking for Texas A&M All-American edge rusher candidate Nick Skorton, it's a less-than-ideal debut assignment. Play: Texas A&M -2.5.
USC +4.5 vs. LSU at Allegiant Stadium, Over/Under: 64.5. The under may be a tough but smart bet in this game where both teams' defenses can only rise after struggling last year, meaning points will be at an even higher premium and the point spread could add value to the underdog. USC was as high as +6.5 for much of the offseason and was definitely worth betting, but the spread has now moved into a more reasonable range. Trend: USC +4.5.
Boston College +17 vs. Florida State, Over/Under: 50. The Eagles have a clear advantage. We now have video of the Seminoles game to study, and the home team has to come back from a 10.5-point edge after the Irish lost to Georgia Tech, 24-21. But are those advantages worth the extra 3.5 points the spread moved after the Florida State loss? The drop seems steep unless you completely give up on the Seminoles being favorites to win. Prediction: Florida State -17.
Top Plays
Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State, Over/Under: 45. Remember when current Florida Atlantic coach Tom Herman was the biggest underdog coach of all time, going 13-2 against the spread when it came to points against Houston and Texas? With Michigan State implementing an entirely new system under first-year coach Jonathan Smith and Herman getting a bit more established in his second season at Florida Atlantic, this is the perfect opportunity for Herman to prove himself again. Play: Florida Atlantic +14.
Virginia Tech +13.5 vs Vanderbilt, Over/Under: 50. Virginia Tech has been one of the hottest sleeper teams in the country after how last season ended, but carrying that so-called momentum into the new season, even with a lineup of experienced players, is easier said than done. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has yet to blossom despite making a major upgrade with the addition of many players from last year's surprise New Mexico State team, including quarterback Diego Pavia and coach Jerry Kill. Bet: Vanderbilt +13.5.
Connecticut +20.5 vs. Maryland, Over/Under: 45. Maryland's offense is in disarray after losing most of its best players and is still too raw to bet so many points against a team with a competent defense. The Huskies are very competent on that front, and that's a big reason they've made a name for themselves the past two years under coach Jim Mora Jr. Play: Connecticut +20.5.
Florida International +21 at Indiana, Over/Under: 52. Don't expect the first-year growing pains that most new coaches experience to be too much of a pain for Indiana's Curt Cignetti. That's because he transferred over a lot of players from his previous job at James Madison. Those players are the ones who ruined everything on the way to a historic 19-5 record and 15-9 against the spread in their first two years as an FBS program. They should continue to thrive in their new uniforms. Bet: Indiana -21.
Miami (OH) +2.5 vs. Northwestern, Over/Under: 42.5. Northwestern had some great luck last season, going 8-5 and winning the Las Vegas Bowl, so some setbacks are to be expected, but this spread doesn't take into account last year's strides. The Wildcats defense still ranks on the fringe of the top 25 and should hurt a Redhawks offense that returns quarterback Brett Gabbert but has few weapons around him. Play: Northwestern -2.5.
UNR +8 vs. Troy, Over/Under: 45. The Wolfpack certainly came into this game with a 1% post-game win expectation according to SP+ ratings. SMU played awful, only managing a 29-24 win over a 28-point favorite, UNR, so the latter isn't going to see a huge boost in power ratings, but with a seven-point drop since opening night, that's what's happening. Play: Troy -8.
UCLA vs. Hawaii -14.5, Over/Under: 55.5. Hawaii didn't look all that good either, beating Delaware State 35-14 despite being a 41-point favorite, but I wouldn't rate the Warriors that low. They kept their game plan mediocre in hopes of forcing the Bruins to attack more. And against a team that was in disarray in the offseason (and in disarray late on since DeShawn Foster took over as coach), their combination of experience and playmaking should give them a chance to pull off a complete upset. Play: Hawaii +14.5.
Other Games
Play: UTSA -24.5 vs. Kennesaw State
Play: Syracuse -17 vs. Ohio
Play: Eastern Michigan +2 at Massachusetts
Trend: UNLV +2.5 vs. Houston
Lean: Sam Houston at Rice University +10.5
Trend: South Alabama -5.5 vs. North Texas
Trend: Coastal Carolina +2.5 vs Jacksonville State
Trend: Stanford +9.5 vs. TCU
Trend: Alabama -31.5 vs. Western Kentucky
Lean: Southern Miss +28 vs. Kentucky
Trend: Georgia Southern +13 vs. Boise State
Trend: UTEP +27.5 vs. Nebraska
Trend: Oklahoma -42.5 vs. Temple
Trend: South Carolina -20.5 vs. Old Dominion
Trend: Arizona State -6.5 vs. Wyoming
Prediction: Georgia Tech -21.5 vs. Georgia State
Prediction: Michigan -21.5 vs. Fresno State
Prediction: Akron +51 vs. Ohio State
Prediction: Texas -31.5 vs. Colorado State
Prediction: Western Michigan +24.5 vs. Wisconsin
Prediction: New Mexico +31.5 vs. Arizona
Prediction: Pittsburgh -23.5 vs. Kent State
Prediction: Charlotte +6.5 vs. James Madison
Contact Case Keefer at 702-948-2790 or (email protected). Follow Case on Twitter. twitter.com/casekeeferCase Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
