Myanmar's military leader Min Aung Hlaing is making his first visit to China since overthrowing the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021.
The significant losses his regime suffered in the civil war at the hands of poorly armed insurgents have raised the question of how long he will remain as leader of the country.
So the invitation to visit China – an important ally, neighbor and Myanmar's largest trading partner – is significant, even if it is not a state visit.
It's a far cry from Chinese approval of its disastrous handling of Myanmar's post-coup chaos, but it suggests Beijing views it as an essential part of a solution to the conflict there.
Leading a large delegation of officials and business figures, Min Aung Hlaing arrived Tuesday in Kunming, a city in Yunnan province that shares a long border with Myanmar.
He is participating in a minor summit of countries in the Greater Mekong sub-region.
The embattled leader has remained isolated since the coup and has been shunned by regional gatherings that Myanmar's leaders usually attend.
The few trips abroad he has made since 2021 have mainly been to Russia, now a loyal ally.
During his visit, he is expected to meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who is chairing the summit. But it is otherwise a low-level affair, involving the heads of government of other authoritarian governments in the region, such as Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.
China always takes seriously the symbolic importance of diplomatic protocol and will be mindful of the signal sent by Min Aung Hlaing's presence at a meeting hosted by China.
This is important, following perceptions over the past year that China may be preparing to wash its hands of Min Aung Hlaing as the civil war becomes increasingly costly for Beijing.
The ethnic insurgent alliance that has inflicted the biggest defeats on the Myanmar military operates along the border with China and launched its offensive a year ago with the stated aim of shutting down scam centers of which thousands of Chinese citizens have been victims.
It was widely believed that China, frustrated by the junta's refusal to act, had given the insurgents the green light to step in and do so.
Since then, China has attempted to subdue the insurgents to prevent an outright collapse of Nay Pyi Daw's military regime.
Beijing is known for pushing Min Aung Hlaing to propose a timetable for elections aimed at ending military rule. He wants cross-border trade restored and China's ambitious investment plans for Myanmar protected.
Many groups fighting the military takeover in Myanmar have vowed never to negotiate with the coup plotters. They argue that the military should be permanently removed from Burmese politics and placed under civilian control, along with a new federal political system established.
The National Unity Government (NUG), which represents the elected administration ousted in the coup, objected to the implicit recognition given to the junta by China's invitation to Min Aung Hlaing this week.
“The people of Myanmar want stability, peace and economic growth. It is Min Aung Hlaing and his group who are destroying these things,” said NUG spokesperson Kyaw Zaw.
“I fear that (this visit) will unintentionally incite misunderstanding of the Chinese government among the Burmese public.”
But the opposition is still far from defeating the junta, and China fears that if it were to collapse, even worse chaos would ensue, as different armed groups jostle for power.
It appears that China is willing to work with the junta, despite the military regime's record of brutality and incompetence.
And for now, China-led diplomacy is all that exists, as Western influence is negligible.
India, Myanmar's other giant neighbor, has largely been preoccupied with localized border issues.
And the efforts of Asean, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, of which Myanmar is a member – essentially a five-point consensus agreed with Min Aung Hlaing just three months after his coup – n came to nothing.
Only China has the commitment and influence to plausibly attempt to end Myanmar's civil war.
