Voting in the US presidential election ended on Tuesday. Counting may take several days. However, America's largest media outlets have already unanimously announced that Donald Trump won based on the poll results.
The former president did it in impressive style and with a clear edge. Contrary to pre-election expectations that it would be the most balanced election in years. This was also a time when American polling agencies underestimated electoral support for Republican candidates. Before the vote, some analysts were even predicting that Kamala Harris might have a better advantage than expected, as pollsters inflated support for Trump out of fear of being embarrassed again. As it turns out, it was the opposite.
US election results. “A stunning victory”
This is the result of a poll published in the New York Times a few days ago, which shows the current vice president with a 3-point lead in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and a 1-point lead in Georgia. However, Trump is expected to win both elections.
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“This is an impressive victory considering what we've seen over the last month. In some states, polls were showing a slight lead or a tie for Kamala Harris. This gives Democrats hope.” said an American professor at Jagiellonian University. . Paul Laidler.
2024 US Election. iowa poll
The most notable example of incorrectly estimated electoral preferences is a poll conducted in Iowa by Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. The creators of this authoritative survey have been determining the mood in the state with great accuracy since 2012.
See also: Kamala Harris' staff was disappointed. Surprising results for women
Before this year's election, the poll predicted Harris would win the farm state 47-44 percent over Trump. On the other hand, post-election predictions showed Trump winning Iowa and receiving six electoral votes (Trump 55.6%, Harris 42.8%).
Who won the American election? opinion poll expert
“Who lost the election? First of all, it provides us with a completely virtual world, one where the final result is even closer than in 2020 and where victory could be decided by a percentage.” It's worth pointing out the pollsters who did it,” American Andrzej Kohut commented on the election on social media.
SEE: The market predicted a Trump victory. “The script has been playing for weeks.”
“There were no surprises in Iowa. Ann Selzer's pre-election poll had Kamala Harris in the lead, so commentators went wild and everyone looked hard to find what they missed. On the other hand, if anything was missing, it was the scale of support: Mr. Trump won by more than a dozen percentage points in Iowa, but if the famous pollsters were wrong by more than 15 percentage points. “It's hard to explain the magnitude of this stigma,” he added.
US election results. Alan Lichtman was wrong
American University historian Alan Lichtman, who has been predicting the outcome of presidential elections for 40 years, was also wrong.
Less than three weeks before the election, the expert appeared as a guest on the Polsat news program “Day in the World.” He indicated who he predicted would be the winner.
SEE: He's been predicting the winner of US elections for years, and he's actually never wrong. he pointed to the name
-I believe there will be a landmark presidential election. For the first time, a woman with African and Asian roots will be elected, he said in an interview with Agnieszka Laskowska, admitting that in his opinion Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.
Everything about the US presidential election. Read special report
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