Donald Trump can't just end the war in Ukraine, but he can start a process of talks between Moscow and Kiev, said analyst Dr. Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official. He noted that the future US president “likes quick wins” and is “not known for complex and long-term negotiations.” The expert also said that Trump will not decide to cut off aid to Kiev, as this will significantly weaken his position in the negotiations. And – as he pointed out – “Trump doesn't want to appear weak and unhinged.”
– Trump cannot end the war by himself. It depends on (Vladimir) Putin and (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky. If they decide to continue fighting, (Donald) Trump can't do anything about it, at least in the short term, said British analyst Dr. Jamie Shea, a former NATO official.
He noted that ending the war is a very complicated matter if neither side declares unconditional surrender. He stressed the need for agreements on withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons, exchange of prisoners, demilitarized zones, demining and international control. – This work cannot be done within 24 hours, – he noted.
In his opinion, “Trump can start the negotiation process between Moscow and Kiev, which could be hosted, for example, by Turkey, which previously had such a role.” – But many questions remain. What will the US peace plan look like? Currently there is no such thing. How can Trump put pressure on Putin? More sanctions? The threat of arming Ukraine? – wondered the British expert.
As the president-elect put it, “he likes quick wins, but is not known for complicated, long-term negotiations and attention to detail.” In Shea's view, he may be more interested in the Middle East or China than Ukraine.
“He will wait to see if he can bring Putin and Zelensky to the table.”
A former senior NATO official warned that the peace talks could turn into “another Minsk process” and become “a frozen conflict in which the parties pretend endless meetings and pretend to negotiate, while the war, albeit with less tension continues.”
The expert emphasized that the suspension of Trump's support for Kiev, while the possible peace talks have not even started, significantly weakens his position in the negotiations. – Trump does not want to appear weak and a useless tool. Putin does not feel much pressure to make concessions. In fact, Trump has threatened to give Ukraine more American weapons if Putin refuses to negotiate, he added.
However, if Russia advances on the battlefield and can rely on North Korean troops, Putin may not feel the need to negotiate unless Ukraine is forced to make major territorial concessions and tough conditions, such as abandoning its bid to join the European Union. and NATO and demilitarization disagree. “It will be disastrous for the security of the West and unacceptable for Ukraine,” Xi added.
– My opinion is that Trump will not immediately cancel the current military transfer, training activities or information exchange, but will wait to bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table and assess which of them will behave more constructively, – he said. he
Big military aid from America
He also noted that Trump won't officially take office until January 20 next year, which means the outgoing President Joe Biden's administration still has several months to “provide as many weapons as possible to Ukraine” as part of the announced package. . last weeks.
He believes Biden should spend the planned $9 billion plan to protect Ukraine to make it harder for Trump to withdraw it. The problem may be slow bureaucratic procedures and the fact that many of these weapons are not yet in production.
“However, if Biden and his colleagues can speed up this process, Ukraine will be in a better position to stop Russia's advance and survive the winter, including defending its energy grid from Russian missiles and drones,” he stressed. analyst
Dr. Jamie Shea, among others, was the spokesman for NATO. during the intervention of the North Atlantic Treaty in Kosovo in 1999 and in 2010-2018 he was the Deputy Secretary General of NATO for new security challenges. Currently, he is associated with several scientific institutions, including: with the University of Exeter and the think tank Chatham House.
Main photo source: PAP/Alena Solomonova
