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Some observers now say that we should not be quick to underestimate North Korea's military capabilities.
When rumors surfaced in October that North Korean troops were about to begin supporting Russia's war in Ukraine, it was not immediately clear what role they would play.
Their lack of battlefield experience has been put forward as one of the main reasons why they might simply be assigned to non-combat roles.
But after the United States and Ukraine revealed that North Korean troops were already engaged in fighting with Ukrainian soldiers, their role in the fight is being reassessed.
Even the number of people deployed – initially estimated at around 11,000 by the Pentagon – has been debated. According to Bloomberg, anonymous sources believe that Pyongyang could deploy up to 100,000 troops.
It is difficult to obtain precise information, however, because Moscow and Pyongyang have not responded directly to any of these reports.
So what do we know about the presence of North Korean troops in Russia?
How effective are these troops?
In short, it's difficult to say.
The secretive kingdom may have one of the largest armies in the world, with 1.28 million active troops, but – unlike the Russian military – the Korean People's Army (KPA) has no recent experience of combat operations.
Mark Cancian, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes that Pyongyang's army is “perfectly indoctrinated but with a low level of preparation.”
However, he says, they should not be seen as cannon fodder – adding such a characterization is “Ukrainian bravado”.
Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence services said many of the troops deployed to Russia were among Pyongyang's best, drawn from the infiltration-trained 11th Corps, also known as the Storm Corps, infrastructure sabotage and assassinations.
These soldiers are “trained to withstand a high degree of physical pain and psychological torture,” says Michael Madden, a North Korea expert at the Stimson Center in Washington.
“What they lack in combat, they make up for in what they can tolerate physically and mentally,” he adds.
Mr. Cancian agrees that “if they are special operations forces, they will be much better prepared than the average North Korean unit.”
“In addition, the Russians appear to be giving them additional training, probably adapted to the particular circumstances of the war in Ukraine,” he adds.
This appears to be supported by the emergence of videos on social media showing men believed to be North Koreans wearing Russian uniforms, at what appear to be military training centers in Russia.
And as the war in Ukraine approaches its third year, these North Korean troops could be among the “most capable” troops Russia has, said Chun In-bum, a retired army lieutenant general. South Korean.
Moscow is recruiting at least 20,000 new troops a month to bolster its war effort, with more than 1,000 Russian troops killed or wounded on average each day, according to NATO and Western military officials.
“(Russia) sends troops to the front without proper training. Compared to these recruits, the North Koreans are trained and motivated. They are not combat tested at the moment, but that will soon no longer be the case,” said Lt. Gen. (retd) Chun.
Some experts, however, say the obvious language barrier and unfamiliarity with Russian systems would complicate any combat role, suggesting instead that Pyongyang's troops would be called upon for their engineering and construction capabilities.
Why is North Korea getting involved?
Given these disadvantages, what does this agreement bring for both countries?
Observers say Moscow needs manpower, while Pyongyang needs money and technology.
“For North Korea, (such deployments are) a good way to make money,” says Andrei Lankov, director of the Korea Risk Group.
South Korean intelligence estimates this amount at $2,000 (£1,585) per soldier per month, with most of this money expected to end up in state coffers.
Pyongyang could also gain access to Russian military technology, which Moscow would otherwise have been reluctant to transfer, Lankov adds.
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Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin signed a pact in June pledging to support each other against “aggression”
Moscow's manpower problems have been widely reported, with the United States estimating that some 600,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an order – for the third time since the start of the war – to expand its army.
It has also pursued personnel strategies that “minimize domestic political impact,” such as offering bonuses to willing recruits and enlisting foreigners with the promise of citizenship, says CSIS's Mr. Cancian.
“While Russia reportedly suffered more than 1,000 casualties on the battlefield, reducing its own losses could alleviate some pressure on Putin's regime,” agrees Lami Kim, professor of security studies at the Center for the Studies of Russia. security Daniel K Inouye Asia Pacific.
What does South Korea think?
These developments, coming at a time when tensions on the Korean Peninsula have reached their highest levels in years, worry Seoul.
In October, the North blew up sections of two roads linking it to South Korea, days after accusing Seoul of flying drones into the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.
This came after the two countries embarked on a tit-for-tat balloon campaign, sending thousands of garbage and propaganda balloons towards each other's territories. The Koreas also suspended a pact aimed at easing military tensions between them, shortly after North Korea declared the South was now “enemy number one.”
So it makes sense that South Korea would be concerned about the North acquiring new military prowess amid these tensions. After all, South Korean troops have also not fought in another major conflict since the Korean War.
According to Mr. Madden and Mr. Cancian, it appears that North Korean troops are deployed around the besieged Kursk border region, which Moscow is trying to retake from Ukraine.
The South fears that “its adversary could boast more hostile capabilities” because of the experience its soldiers would gain on the battlefield, said Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Chun.
While South Korea has long accused the North of supplying weapons to Russia, it says the current situation goes beyond the transfer of military equipment.
He also expressed “grave concern” over a pact between Pyongyang and Moscow, which promises the two countries will help each other in the event of “aggression” against either country.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has reiterated – at least three times in the past two months – that the South would consider aiding Ukraine “for defensive purposes.” If that happens, it would mark a shift from the South's long-standing policy of not supplying weapons to countries engaged in active conflict.
