A new war front is opening in the Middle East. It's probably very complicated because the situation in war-torn Syria has so far been strengthened by the influence of Russia and Iran. It was thanks to their help that dictator Bashar al-Assad remained in power for many years. But at the end of the week, the rebels suddenly attacked the government forces and occupied Aleppo and part of Hama province. Is this a good scenario for Syrians?
No one expected such a turn of events in the Middle East. Syrian government tanks abandoned in the streets of Aleppo are the result of a successful rebel attack on Syria's second largest city. But the opponents of Bashar al-Assad's regime can hardly be called pro-democracy.
– The group that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham belongs to was founded in 2011 and was known for its strong ties to al-Qaeda, says CNN military analyst Colonel Cedric Leighton.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is considered a terrorist organization everywhere. In recent years, the group has softened its extremist rhetoric in order to appeal to a wider range of Syrians. Most of them are afraid of extremists and consider Bashar al-Assad's regime to be the lesser evil. Tahrir al-Sham's successes could encourage other rebels to join the offensive, and Syria has no shortage of anti-Assad groups.
– These forces can destroy the Syrian army. Bashar al-Assad's forces are, of course, bigger and better armed, but that may mean nothing if they don't want to fight, says Cedric Leighton.
The war in Syria reminds us again
Since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, which has been going on for 13 years, many actors have appeared and are still appearing on the scene of that conflict. American troops are stationed in the north of the country, the Turks have deployed their forces on their border, and Iranian advisers are present in Damascus, who have no intention of leaving and believe that the successes of the rebels are temporary. Assad also met with Iranian authorities.
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– The presence of Iranian advisers in Syria is nothing new. The spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Emsail Baghai, says that they were there before and will stay there as long as the Syrian government wants.
The weakening of Hezbollah, which backs Assad, whose leadership was ousted at the height of the conflict with Israel, is irrelevant to the current insurgency.
– We are constantly monitoring the events in Syria. We are determined to defend Israel's interests and achieve our goals in this war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
Assad regime “lesser evil”?
Another key ally of Assad has entered another war. The Syrian dictator should go to Russia and talk to Putin about support. The Kremlin would not comment on the news, but Russia's hand was already visible in airstrikes on rebel-held Aleppo. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that civilians were killed in airstrikes, including in a hospital.
– As for the Russians, they will help more than Iran. The point is that Tehran's intervention can provoke a response from Israel, which will use it as an excuse to attack Iran, explains Dr. H. Hellier, an analyst at Britain's Royal Institute of Security and Defense.
Western countries are turning a blind eye to the fall of the Assad regime. But the cure could be worse than the disease, as the seizure of power by a radical Islamist group could further destabilize the country. The United States has announced that it is ready to ease sanctions against the government of Bashar al-Assad if it breaks ties with Iran and Hezbollah.
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– The occupation of Aleppo is the beginning of a campaign that can lead the rebels to Damascus itself. A major road passes through this city that passes through other big cities. Rebels can use it to move along this axis, Cedric Leighton notes.
It is too early to talk about any negotiations in this conflict. Every battle results in civilian casualties, and civilians, encouraged by the successes of the rebels, return to Aleppo after several years in exile. The UN and the Syrian opposition are calling for a peaceful solution to the conflict, but there is no indication that Bashar al-Assad, who has paid hundreds of thousands of Syrians to defend his regime, will come to the table. At least until he gets support from the outside.
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Main photo source: Reuters
