Anannyaa Gupta
Students like Anannyaa Gupta worry about what the new caps mean for their futures.
For Anannyaa Gupta, completing her studies in Australia has always been a “dream”.
“Their education system is one of the best in the world,” explains the 21-year-old from the Indian city of Hyderabad.
After completing her bachelor's degree at Melbourne's Monash University in July, she applied for the master's degree she needs to become a social worker – the kind of skilled job Australia is desperate to fill due to the labor shortage.
“I really want to study here, offer my skills and contribute to society,” she says.
But Ms Gupta is among current and prospective international students who have been swept up in the panic over the Australian government's plan to slash the number of international students.
The new cap – which would significantly reduce new enrollments – is needed to make the A$47.8 billion (£24.6 billion, $32 billion) education sector more sustainable, the government said .
It is the most controversial of recent measures which have also imposed stricter English language requirements on student visa applicants, as well as stricter scrutiny of those wishing to continue their studies. The non-refundable visa application fee has also been doubled.
However, the sector and its supporters say they have not been properly consulted and the changes could ravage the economy, lead to job losses and damage Australia's reputation, while punishing domestic students and international.
“(It) sends a signal that Australia is not a welcoming country,” says Matthew Brown, deputy chief executive of the Group of Eight (Go8), a body that represents Australia's top-ranked universities.
Education is Australia's fourth largest export, behind mining products. Overseas students, who pay on average almost twice as much as Australian students, support some institutions, subsidizing research, scholarships and domestic study fees. At the University of Sydney, for example, they represent more than 40% of revenue.
But Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government faces pressure to reduce record levels of migration, hoping to improve housing affordability and ease the cost of living crisis as the federal elections next year. And international students – who totaled 793,335 last semester – have become a target.
The government has proposed capping new foreign registrations at 270,000 for 2025, which it says is a return to pre-pandemic levels. An accurate comparison with previous years is not possible because publicly available data is insufficient, according to an education expert.
Education Minister Jason Clare said each higher education institution would be given an individual limit, with the biggest cuts borne by vocational education and training providers. Among the universities affected, those in capital cities will see the largest reductions.
The government says the policy will redirect students to regional towns and universities in need, rather than large, crowded cities.
It also says the changes aim to protect potential students from “unethical” providers, alleging that some accept students without sufficient language skills or academic standards and recruit people who intend to work instead of 'to study.
“International education is hugely important, and these reforms aim to make it better and fairer, and put it on a more sustainable footing for the future,” Clare said.
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Education Minister Jason Clare says limits are a return to pre-pandemic levels
Abul Rizvi, a former government official who shaped Australia's skilled migration policy, says the “underfunded” sector has “long sought tuition revenue from overseas students and sacrificed the integrity of the learning in the process.
Institutions themselves are wondering whether they are too dependent on international student income and how to fix it, says Dr. Brown: “It's a debate that all universities are having.”
But the announcement of the cap still sparked a rather furious reaction from the sector.
Go8 called the proposed laws “draconian”, while others accused the government of “intentionally weakening” the economy and using international students as “cannon fodder in an election battle over migration”. .
The government has not confirmed how long the caps will be in place, but Dr Brown says Go8 calculations indicate they will have an A$1 billion impact on their members in the first year alone . The economy as a whole would suffer a loss of A$5.3 billion, leading to the loss of 20,000 jobs, according to their research.
Australia's Treasury Department has called the projections “questionable” but has not released its own modeling on the economic impact of the changes.
Dr Brown also warned the caps could lead to some universities rescinding offers already made to overseas students, strangle vital research programs and could result in higher tuition fees for some Australian students.
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The University of Sydney is among those saying the caps will lead to significant spending cuts.
However, a handful of smaller universities, for whom the caps are beneficial, welcomed the news.
La Trobe University vice-chancellor Theo Farrell said he supported “transparent and proportionate measures” to manage the growth of international students in Australia.
“We recognize that there is broad political and community support for reducing levels of net migration,” he said.
But Dr Brown says Australia's reputation is also being hit, which is harder to quantify, citing Canada as a warning sign. This year the government introduced a cap on international students, but industry bodies say enrollments have fallen well below that cap as nervous students prefer to apply to study somewhere with more certainty.
“We need an international education system that incorporates integrated growth… it is not up to the minister to unilaterally decide on caps based on a formula that meets a political objective.”
Mr Rizvi argues that instead of moving forward with Australia's proposed caps, the government should consider introducing a minimum university entrance exam score.
“We are shooting ourselves in the foot… This won’t deter low-achieving students, but it will deter high-achieving students who have options,” he wrote on X.
Meanwhile, in Parliament, the Greens called the policy a “racist dog whistle”, and one of the government's MPs also broke ranks to attack it.
“A hard cap would be bad for Australia's human capital and talent pool, bad for soft power and bad for academic excellence and research,” Julian Hill told The Australian newspaper.
But despite the criticism, the bill setting these limits – which is due to be debated in Parliament this week – is expected to be adopted, with the support of the opposition.
Clare acknowledged that some service providers may face difficult budgetary decisions, but said any claims that this policy “is somehow destroying international education are absolutely and fundamentally false”.
However, with less than two months before the changes are supposed to take effect, they are causing extreme anxiety and confusion among students.
In China and India – Australia's two largest international markets – the news is falling like a lead balloon.
“It's going to be very tough for students in India, most of whom come from middle-income backgrounds and spend years planning and preparing for their studies abroad. Their dreams will be dashed,” said Rupinder Singh, an education consultant. immigration based in Amritsar, to the BBC. .
Alessandro Russo/Monash University
Vedant Gadhavi says changes are already having an effect on Australia's reputation
Vedant Gadhavi – a Monash University student – says some of his friends from Gujarat who were hoping to come to Australia for their master's degrees were scared away.
“They seem to have changed their plans a little bit because of the constant change…They thought it might be a little difficult to plan their careers and their lives.”
Jenny, a high school student from China's Anhui province, says she set her sights on Australia because getting a good quality education there is “easier” than getting into a fiercely competitive Chinese university.
“Everything is up in the air now,” she told the BBC.
She adds that going to a lower-ranked university in a region is not an option for her or her peers: “We (simply) won't go to Australia at all.”
Rishika Agrawal, chair of the international students department at the Australian National University, says the proposed laws have stoked other feelings of unease.
“There are certainly other students who think this is a sign of increased government hostility towards immigrants in Australia.”
And, she adds, as the contributions to society made by international students are often overlooked, while their postgraduate employment opportunities dry up, resentment grows.
“They return to their own country, having spent a huge amount of money on their education and don’t really reap the rewards.
“They really feel like cash cows.”
As the debate continues in Parliament, Anannya feels some relief. Shortly after speaking to the BBC, and just weeks before her course start date, she received the official master's registration certificate and a new study visa which she feared would not never happens.
But many other students are still waiting and worried.
“If I were in their place, I would feel very helpless, very disappointed. This is already taking away the credibility that Australia once had,” Rishika says.
Additional reporting by Fan Wang in Singapore and Zoya Mateen in Delhi.
