• QB Caleb Williams looks to transform the Chicago Bears. The rookie quarterback will have a shot at becoming an elite QB1 in his first year.
• Keep an eye on WR Jackson Smith-Njiba: Smith-Njiba is poised to break out in year two.
• Dominate your fantasy draft: Join PFF+ and get full access to PFF's suite of fantasy football tools, including our fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy draft rankings and cheat sheets. Click here to join.
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
Variables such as talent, offensive environment, and average draft position all need to be considered when identifying players with notable fantasy football results, both in .5 points per reception and in PPR scoring formats. Some NFL divisions are stronger than others, but all eight have valuable fantasy football assets.
Here, we break down the best fantasy football draft picks for the NFC North, NFC South, NFC East, and NFC West.
NFC North: QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams could be drafted as a surefire QB1 with elite potential thanks to his dual-threat skill set paired with the league's best pass-catching corps and playing arguably the loosest first-half schedule in the league. Fantasy managers are willing to allow Williams to fall outside the top 100 in both half-PPR and PPR ADPs and draft him as a high-end QB2. He is the best fantasy football draft pick in the NFC North. Through the second week of the preseason, his PFF composite grade of 70.3 was tied for 20th out of 55 targeted quarterbacks.
Williams plays behind the ninth-ranked offensive line from PFF senior fantasy analyst Nathan Janke. While the Bears' pass blocking remains a concern, Williams benefits from the group's aggressive ground game. We recently looked at three must-draft quarterbacks selected outside the top 12 at the position, highlighting that Williams has attempted at least 115 rushes over the past two seasons and ranked 13th or better among 30 Power 5 quarterbacks across five rushing metrics, including a third-best PFF rushing grade of 87.9.
Additionally, in the passing game, the Tigers ranked 13th in turnover-worthy plays (2.6%), fifth in big-time throws (6.1%), fourth in completion percentage (67.2%) and third in yards per pass attempt (9.1). Their PFF passing grade of 90.5 was tied for fifth.
Williams' talent has been reflected in his NFL preseason play, with his big-time throw rate of 13.0% through Week 2 ranking second among quarterbacks and his turnover-worthy plays rate of 0.0% tied for first place. He also has just two preseason rushing attempts, totaling 20 rushing yards, one touchdown, one first down (not including the touchdown), and one explosive rushing play.
For more on the Bears' elite pass-catching corps, read ” Three rookie quarterbacks you should definitely pick in the draft ” and ” Obscure backfields to target in 2024 “
Chicago's offense has fielded nine beatable defensive units through the season's first 11 weeks and was also the highlight of a recent “favorable early-season pass-and-run game schedule.”
NFC SOUTH: WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Olave enters his third year in the NFL as the focal point of the Saints' new offense. Fantasy managers can expect improved play calling from Olave and perhaps the highest target totals of his career. His late WR1 ADP in the second half of the second round in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats makes him a good buy at a low price.
Over the past two seasons, his PFF composite grade of 86.8 is 11th out of 49 wide receivers covered.
Olave finished as the WR25 from Weeks 1-17 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats in 2022, improving slightly to WR21 and WR20, respectively, last year in a one-dimensional downfield role.
The table below ranks Olave's 2022-2023 receiving stats among the 34 NFL wide receivers who received at least 195 targets during that span.
Chris Olave PFF receiving grade 87.2 (No. 15) Target rate 25.9% (No. 6) Deep target rate 23.4% (No. 4) Yards per route run 2.23 (No. 7) Catch rate 63.1% (No. 25) Average depth of target 14.3 (No. 3) Yards after catch/reception 3.6 (No. 26) Yards/reception 13.6 (No. 13) Explosive pass play rate 30.8% (No. 21)
The Saints' new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, served as the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers last year, and his tactical changes should immediately improve Olave's production, especially after the catch. Kubiak's 2023 unit targets wide receivers 12.4 yards downfield on first-read passes, ranking 19th. New Orleans' 2023 offense, led by former offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, targets wide receivers 13.6 yards downfield on first-read passes, ranking 7th. The first-read deep target rates for Kubiak (14.9%, 30th) and Carmichael (22.5%, 5th) on passes thrown to wide receivers provide an even starker contrast.
Kubiak also helped disguise his pre-snap passing plays well, utilizing play-action passes 22.7% of the time (19th) and using the motion 753 total regular-season snaps (3rd). New Orleans' numbers of 14.4% (32nd) and 366 (30th) were inconsistent.
A slight shift towards Kubiak's play calling in 2023 should significantly improve Olave's production, and Olave will also face much less competition for targets than he has in years past.
Michael Thomas, who regularly dominated the team's short, close-quarters targets, is now a free agent, and veteran running back Alvin Kamara will enter his age-29 season after recording three season-low receptions in 2023. Thomas earned a PFF receiving grade of 67.8 last year. Kamara averaged 0.1 yards from the target depth, 6.2 yards per reception and 6.6 yards after the catch, earning a PFF receiving grade of 78.4.
No. 2 wide receiver Rashid Shahid, projected to be a breakout star in 2022, has recently suffered two lower-body injuries and could be off to a slow start to the season as a result.
NFC East: WR Malik Neighbors, New York Giants
Neighbors can be expected to have no problem handling a near league-leading workload at his position and has the necessary skills to gain yards on his own despite poor offensive environments. With an ADP of 5.03 and WR24 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats, WR1 grades are easily achievable. Neighbors' PFF receiving grade of 93.1 in 2023 ranks first overall among 22 Power Five wide receivers with at least 100 targets.
Per Nathan Janke's Week 2 preseason summary, New York's first-team offensive line remained on the field in the first half of the game, with Neighbors accounting for 33.3% (6) of quarterback Daniel Jones' pass attempts and handling one rushing attempt. Jones' shaky arm will lead to lost plays this year, but Neighbors' expected elite target share could translate into one of the highest raw target totals at the position. The team currently does not have an established second full-time wide receiver, which is a good reflection of Neighbors' poor target competition.
Jones' PFF passing grade of 54.4 last season was 37th out of 39 quarterbacks surveyed.
Given his projected high target volume, fantasy managers should be able to comfortably rely on Neighbors' ability to create opportunities on his own after the catch. Our “Best Post Reception Producers in the 2024 NFL Draft” article highlights Neighbors' crafty traits at all three levels of the field.
Among Power Five wide receivers eligible for the class of 2023, Neighbors was top-five in missed tackle rate per reception on short targets (0.38), medium targets (0.35) and deep targets (0.21). He also ranked better than 16th in yards after the catch per reception at each level of the field, including fourth overall in the 10-19 yard range (7.2).
Among the 22 Power Five wide receivers with at least 100 targets in 2023, Neighbors ranked second in both explosive pass plays (43) and explosive pass play percentage (48.3%).
NFC West: WR Jackson Smith-Njiba, Seattle Seahawks
Smith-Njiba enters his second year in the NFL after a disappointing WR4 performance from Weeks 1-17 of 2023, limited to a frustrating short-yardage role that hurts his ability to produce explosive plays while playing behind two veteran wide receivers.
Smith-Njiva's high scoring performance during his rookie season, his developing rapport with quarterback Geno Smith and his rise up the pecking order indicate a breakout year two is on the way. He's available as a WR4 outside of the top 100 picks in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats. Smith-Njiva's 2023 PFF receiving grade of 63.3 ranked 51st among 64 eligible wide receivers, while Smith's PFF passing grade of 82.1 ranked 12th among 32 eligible quarterbacks.
Smith-Njiva was limited to a struggling short-area role for the majority of his rookie season, but that usage proved his dynamic post-catch traits. He showed a consistent ability to generate big gains, averaging just 0.2 yards short of an explosive pass play per reception when allowed to make plays 10 or more yards downfield. Coincidentally, Smith was a force on passes that went at least 10 yards downfield, as detailed in “3 Must-Draft Quarterbacks Selected Outside the Top 12 at Their Position.”
The table below compares Smith-Njiba's 2023 receiving stats in games where the average depth of target was 10 or more yards (Weeks 7, 11, 12, 15) with games where the average depth of target was less than 10 yards (Weeks 1-4, 6, 8-10, 13-14, 16-18).
aDot over 10 yards aDot under 10.0 yards PFF Receiving Grade 71.1 60.3 1st-Read Target Rate 13 – 15.7% 41 – 17.7% Target Rate 20 – 17.4% 70 – 19.3% Route Yardage 1.67 1.20 Average Depth of Target 13.6 4.4 Yards After Catch/Reception 2.8 6.7 Yards/Reception 14.8 8.7 Catch Rate 65.0% 71.4% Missed Tackles/Reception 0.08 0.10 Explosive Pass Play Rate 33.3% 16.0%
Smith-Njiva ended up thriving in a below-average role, recording at least one explosive pass play per game in every game except one from Week 6 through Week 16. He finished as a PPR WR37 or better seven times during that span, including as a WR2 three of those times.
Smith has been vocal in his praise of Smith-Njiba throughout the offseason and it's clear the rapport between the two is growing.
Smith-Njiba is likely to overtake veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett for the No. 2 spot this year, as Lockett continues to deal with a non-specific leg injury and has been plagued by recurring hamstring strains over the past two seasons.
Lockett remains a competent route runner, but his PFF receiving grade and average yards per route run have steadily declined since 2021, stagnating at a PFF receiving grade of 77.6 and 1.61 yards per route run. He failed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards (894) for the first time since 2018, despite having his second-highest season target totals (122).
Smith-Njiba also received some exciting usage in Week 1 of the preseason. According to Nathan Janke's Week 1 preseason fantasy football summary, “The Seahawks played 6 of 12 snaps on their first three drives, with Smith-Njiba appearing on all six of those. He only played 2 of 12 snaps in the entire preseason last season, which were run plays, and only 16 snaps in the entire regular season.”
Smith-Njiba is being touted as the next great wide receiver who will take a big leap in Year 2 and be a top fantasy football draft pick in the NFC West.
