Inflation at the end of the year may be more or less the same, perhaps 0.1-0.2 percentage points lower, – said the President of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) Adam Glapinski during the conference. He added that inflation will most likely increase in the coming months and will exceed five percent.
– Today, it can be expected that price growth will temporarily slow down in the third quarter due to the impact of the statistical base, but in the fourth quarter it may accelerate even more. (…) At the end of this year, inflation will be more or less the same as it is now, maybe 0.2 percentage points lower, – said the president of the National Bank of Poland.
Conference of NBP President Adam Glapinsky
As reported by the Central Statistical Office on Wednesday, in December, the prices of consumer goods and services increased by 4.7 percent compared to the current year.
According to the head of the Central Bank, inflation will most likely rise above 5 percent in the coming months.
– Since July, the inflation rate has increased significantly. In December, the inflation rate was almost twice as high as the inflation target. Glapinski said it is likely to increase further to above 5 percent in the coming months.
He added that inflation is due to the increase in the price of electricity and other regulatory and tax decisions, including the increase in the value-added tax rate for food, the increase in the excise duty on alcohol and cigarettes, the increase in the price of cold water and the price of sewerage services.
Inflation. Forecast of the President of the National Bank of Poland
According to the chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan, forecasts show that inflation in the next quarters will not decrease to the rate of inflation in the BMT.
According to him, the restoration of the capacity payment will increase inflation by 0.4 percentage points, and the expiration of the price freeze mechanism by 0.7 percentage points.
The president of the UN also presented a diagram of the implementation of inflation in 2024 and the scenario of its development in 2025. This shows that according to the forecasts of the National Bank of Tajikistan, in the first quarter of 2025, the price increase will be 5.3%, in the second – 5.1%, in the third – 4.0%, and in the fourth – 4.6%.
“Inflation increases, then decreases, then increases again,” said the head of the Central Bank.
Glapiński presents the NBP’s inflation scenariosTVN24
Glapinski also said that although this document provides for the possibility of lowering the tariffs for the sale of electricity, it is not known at the moment how far the tariffs will be lowered or not. He emphasized that the further reset of the electricity price may not only lead to the next increase in inflation, but also delay the return of inflation to the target of 2026.
Glapinski: the forecasts do not indicate an inevitable reduction in inflation to the target
President of the National Bank of Poland on the main inflation
Glapinski said core inflation, “the most important indicator for central banks,” has clearly risen. Current forecasts show that core inflation will remain close to 4% this year, which is a high level, he added.
As he argued, a prolonged period of rising inflation translates into inflationary expectations, which can lead to wage pressures and wage increases. – Higher inflation expectations increase the risk of electricity prices rising in the entire market, – said the president of BMT.
Glapinski assessed the acceleration of economic development in 2025 as a positive factor, but noted that in terms of inflation and wages, this is a pro-inflationary factor. – We still have a double-digit increase in wages, and there are no signs that it will slow down in the near future, – he noted.
In the assessment of the Monetary Policy Council, the current level of interest rates is favorable for achieving the inflation target (2.5% with a range of +/- 1 percentage point) in the medium term, and the premature depreciation of the exchange rate will prolong the process. to reach the goal, said Glapinski.
He noted that the Council has yet to decide how it will decide next quarter. According to him, at the moment there is no reason to lower the interest rate, but the situation may change. If the situation changes, our opinion will also change, – added the NBP president.
Main photo source: TVN24
