Join us as we break down the biggest risers and fallers in fantasy football ADP, providing you with the knowledge to make informed decisions and potentially find value picks that could make or break your fantasy season. Find Week 1’s recap here.
And if you want even more, be sure to check out the next podcast episode, in which Tom Strachan and I break down all the Week 2 preseason action-all 16 games.
Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers
Welcome to our latest fantasy football installment, “Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers,” where we delve into the shifting tides of player valuations over the past week with Preseason Week 2 in the books. Find Week 1’s recap here.
With preseason games and training camps in full swing, we finally have REAL news that is already influencing the Average Draft Position (ADP) movement.
As the NFL preseason continues for one more week, understanding these shifts in ADP can be crucial in planning your draft strategy as things shift due to training camp news. In this article, we’ll explore the players who have seen their stock soar and those who have dipped since preseason games started to shed light on potential reasons behind these changes. Again, shout out to the preseason GOAT (also great FantasyPros ranker), PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, for contributing snap count data from Week 2 of the NFL preseason.
To enhance your experience and analysis, we’ve included a variety of charts illustrating the risers and fallers at each position. These charts will help you better understand the magnitude of these shifts and the trends that could impact player valuations. Whether you’re gearing up for your league’s draft or staying informed on the fantasy landscape, these insights will give you a clearer picture of the current fantasy football market dynamics.
The charts are aggregated ADP from best ball ADP, which includes BB10s, Underdog Fantasy, Drafters and RTSports.
To provide a thorough analysis, the article is organized by position – quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends – allowing you to see the trends specific to each category. This breakdown will help you pinpoint where the most significant changes are happening and how they might affect your draft strategy across different positions.
Running Backs
RISERS
The Chiefs’ RB competition heats up, with Carson Steele, Deneric Prince, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire battling for roles behind starter Isiah Pacheco (another massive ADP riser). Steele – who the team seems to envision more as a fullback – got the first crack in the lineup after Pacheco exited Preseason Week 2. It also came from a strong preseason week 1 showing, where he ran with much power. Steele rushed for nearly 1600 yards at Ball State in 2022 and rushed for 847 yards and 8 TDs at UCLA in 2023.
After it seemed Prince had asserted himself as the No. 2 on the depth chart, that now seems more uncertain. Especially after the Athletic’s 53-man team projection was released with Prince “having a chance” to make the roster. Solid handcuffs aren’t usually on the roster bubble.
However, Prince is going away quietly, as he did rip off a big 41-yard run in the exhibition contest. I’m throwing my hands in the air in this RB2 battle, with the Chiefs still unsure who their guy will be if/when they need to. Early in the season, it seems most likely that guy will be CEH, but his mental illness concerns make me very wary of his long-term availability. Look for the Chiefs’ RB2 role to remain very fluid throughout the 2024 season.
Eric Gray‘s been a massive riser due to his Week 1 explosion in the preseason and Tyrone Tracy’s injury. Tracy’s injury was feared to be worse, but latest reports suggest he should be okay. Even if Gray has closed the gap, a healthy Tracy still looks to be the RB2 for New York, FWIW.
The Cowboys rested most of their key players in Week 2 of the preseason, including Rico Dowdle. He’s a slam-dunk pick outside the top 100, and he is in contention with Ezekiel Elliott to be the RB1 for Big D this season.
Javonte Williams is the RB1 for the Broncos, but Jaleel McLaughlin looks like the clear-cut 1B in the backfield. The second-year RB is also seeing red-zone usage. Given how heavily Sean Payton’s offenses involve RBs (especially as receivers) both Williams and McLaughlin are great picks at their current ADPs.
Meanwhile, Samaje Perine played into the third quarter. He’s looking like the odd man out.
Ray Davis staking his claim as the Buffalo Bills RB2. Looked strong rushing – 7.3 yards per carry on 8 carries for 58 yards. Also had a rush of 15-plus yards.
FALLERS
Cody Schrader continues to fall, but it’s for the wrong reasons. He drew the start for the 49ers with all their other RBs dealing with some type of minor injury. I think the UDFA has some MASSIVE rookie appeal should he find his way into the 49ers starting lineup. He had the No.1 college career dominator rating in this year’s RB class at 30%. The 5-foot-9 and 202-pound RB was still super productive in his two years at Missouri, with a jump in competition after making the team a walk-on. He posted a 22% dominator rating in 2022, followed by a 30% dominator rating this past season, with 14 TDs and over 1,600 yards rushing (third in the FBS). I like the fact that Schrader has already shown the ability to deliver against tougher competition in the SEC – a trait that will make it easier for him to transition to the pros. It reminds me a lot of a few other super late-drafted players who made an impact as rookies, such as Jaylen Warren and James Robinson. His three-down skill set – 111 career receptions – makes Schrader a player primed to deliver if ever called upon. We saw reports that suggested Schrader was the team’s top rookie through training camp.
Rookie Will Shipley continues to run behind Kenneth Gainwell for the Eagles. But I am not overly convinced that Gainwell playing in the preseason is actually a good thing for his status on the depth chart. Gainwell didn’t play much in the preseason last year when he was contending as a potential starter.
Kimani Vidal is making a case for a roster spot after being left off initial 53-man team projections provided by the Athletic’s Daniel Popper. From his piece…
In his first NFL game, rookie running back Kimani Vidal led the Chargers with 49 rushing yards on 11 carries. Of note were two rushes on the first drive of the game for the Chargers. Vidal broke off two long runs. The first went for 13 yards. Vidal followed some well-executed blocking to the left side. He showed good vision and acceleration, finding creases amid a crowded picture before bursting for first-down yardage. On the next play, the Chargers went back to Vidal on an outside zone run. Vidal got the edge before finishing with ferocity through Tomlinson.
D’Onta Foreman looks fine after a major injury scare a few weeks back. He still projects for a goal-line role. Per Nathan Jahnke, Foreman’s only two snaps in the first quarter happened at the one-yard line. That confirms an older report, and he would be the goal-line back for the Browns until Nick Chubb returns.
Tank Bigsby continues to build hype, dominating snaps over D’Ernest Johnson for the Jaguars.
Jonathon Brooks continues to remain on the NFI list, while Chuba Hubbard continues to get steamed up by his head coach, Dave Canales. I think it could be a while until we see a healthy Brooks operate as anything close to a bellcow in this offense. Last season, Canales saw firsthand what Hubbard could do when the Panthers played the Buccaneers (Canales’ former team). Two of Hubbard’s best games from 2023 came against the Buccaneers’ elite run defense (83 and 104 rushing yards performances). Hubbard also returned to practice after dealing with a knee injury.
Although the risers/fallers do not reflect this, we should fully expect Jaylen Warren to fall behind Najee Harris due to his latest hamstring injury. Because it’s a soft-body issue, I am concerned about any re-injury possibilities. Harris’ stock is going to increase as a result, but I think it’s a bad spot to chase the steam. Because if you draft Harris in a potential “workhorse” role then he HAS to deliver if Warren is sidelined. If he falters in any way, his stock is going to plummet. I’m not taking that risk for the potential of a few decent weeks to open the season. Especially considering Harris has been putrid to open the year over the last two seasons.
Arizona Cardinals RB Trey Benson is the two-down handcuff to James Conner, with a third RB mixing in. Emari Demercado came in on the opening third down. Demercado spelled Conner on third downs last season.
Wide Receivers
RISERS
Jahan Dotson continues to operate as the Commanders’ primary slot WR, but he’s still not a lock as the WR2. Per the Athletic’s Ben Standig, it’s still a competition with guys like Dyami Brown (who is a massive riser). I liked Brown a lot as a WR prospect, and he has had a tumultuous career up to this point. But under a new coaching regime, his long speed and big-play ability may fit what Jayden Daniels does best.
It’s been a long road for Tim Patrick, but there’s no denying he has solidified himself atop the Denver Broncos depth chart as the WR2 opposite Courtland Sutton.
Jordan Whittington caught five passes for 52 yards on eight targets in Preseason Week 2. Whittington is the direct backup to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Jordan Rodriuge (Athletic) reinforced that Demarcus Robinson is still the clear WR3 and is preferred by Matthew Stafford. But that’s under the presumption that Kupp and Nacua are both healthy.
Jalen Tolbert and Andrei Iosivas are benefitting from their star teammates (CeeDee Lamb/Ja’Marr Chase) holding out. Dianna Russini thinks the Lamb deal is closing on being done. Chad Johnson also believes that a Bengals-Chase extension will happen soon. However, that comes with the caveat that if it doesn’t happen, Chase won’t hit the field until he gets a new reworked deal.
This was said on his appearance on The Adam Schefter Podcast:
“Ja’Marr’s deal will get done probably sometime this week,” he (Johnson) said. “Definitely before the season starts, absolutely.”
Odell Beckham Jr. continues to miss time on the PUP list, making the WR3 role in Miami up for grabs. Braxton Berrios is the veteran favorite, but Malik Washington is a splashy Day 3 pick who could make some serious noise.
Xavier Worthy has three catches for 62 yards on six targets and 1 TD, plus an 11-yard rush in the Chiefs’ second preseason game. Per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Worthy has played 19 of 24 snaps with the Patrick Mahomes offense during the team’s first two exhibition games. The Texas Round 1 WR IS as advertised.
Fun fact from the Athletic: Rookie WR receiver Casey Washington has been targeted 15 times in two games but has only three catches.
FALLERS
Bills WR Mack Hollins‘ return to the lineup did not impact Keon Coleman‘s role with the offense. The rookie has started two games with a full-time role. Now, is Keon Coleman good and deserving of such a role? He alligator-armed a TD in the end zone. It’s not the best throw, but you catch my drift. With Curtis Samuel labeled week-to-week with a toe injury and MVS also hurt, Coleman is going to be asked from Day 1 to deliver. It’s all there for the taking in offense attached to Josh Allen.
Don’t get carried away with Brendan Rice. He’s still in a battle for the WR6 spot. It is shaping up into a two-man race between Simi Fehoko and Brenden Rice, per Daniel Popper.
It’s been two straight weeks of Zamir White in a clear-cut two-grinder role. Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube are going to play more than White-stans will want to admit. They were brought in by this current regime. As great as White was down the stretch, extrapolating his 4-game sample size is a fool’s errand.
Quarterbacks
RISERS
The preseason has given us some answers regarding QB competitions. Gardner Minshew was named the starter. But for how long remains the question. I think going with Minshew makes sense, given his veteran status. And it’s also a much easier sell to the team to go with the younger guy (that they also went to last season) if Minshew starts to falter. Sam Darnold will be QB1, with J.J. McCarthy out for the entire season. Darnold’s in the best situation of his NFL career. He’s going to have weeks, given how aggressive this offense should be throwing the ball and how bad the Vikings’ defense projects on paper.
Russell Wilson did himself no favors in his preseason debut to silence the noise about his QB competition with Justin Fields. The issue is, will Wilson want to stick around Pittsburgh even if he’s not QB1? For best ball purposes, keep drafting Fields. Even if Wilson is named the Week 1 starter, we’ve seen this song and dance before.
Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are both risers. The people WANT their rookie QBs. I’m here for the hype.
FALLERS
The fantasy market isn’t buying Jacoby Brissett as the long-term answer at QB. And I tend to agree. But the Patriots are going to be as stubborn as they can to hold Drake Maye back from himself and a less-than-ideal offensive situation in Year 1. Keep in mind the brutal schedule the Patriots open against. No sense throwing Maye to the wolves.
Although I slightly disagree with Jameis Winston falling. Will he start Week 1? No. But if Deshaun Watson falters in any way, I think the team could turn things over to Winston very quickly. On a recent Scoop City podcast, Dianna Russini talked about how the team loves Jameis Winston. Not a great look for Watson.
Tight Ends
RISERS
Not going to lie, guys. Bears new WR Keenan Allen looks all that reported 230 pounds and then some out there on the field. I couldn’t tell much of a difference between him and Gerald Everett‘s body type-wise. Everett saw two targets with first-team offense. Everett is Shane Waldron’s guy, and it seems like he will not be going away anytime soon. Especially with how often Waldron is using 2 TEs instead of 3 WRs (11 personnel) throughout the Bears’ two exhibition games.
Either way, friends don’t let friends draft Cole Kmet. And I am starting to get concerned about Allen at his age on a new team competing for targets alongside Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore. If Allen isn’t completely supplanting Odunze (a top-10 overall pick) in two-WR sets for the majority of the season, it could be a long year for him in the Windy City that doesn’t end favorably for Allen managers.
11 personnel preseason usage:
1. Rams (98.5%)
2. Falcons (97%)
…
32. Bears (40.2%)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 19, 2024
Draft Taysom Hill as a late-round fantasy tight end. He had more rushing work in Preseason Week 2. Hill scored a rushing TD and also saw the first carry in the game after an opening penalty. Hill’s versatile role was on full display, and that is going to lead to spiked weeks of production this season.
Pat Freiermuth is a low-key winner after the Warren injury. His short targets overlap with where Warren would be used in the passing game. The MUTH remains one of my favorite late-round TEs to target in 2024.
FALLERS
Greg Dulcich continues to rotate with Lucas Krull and Adam Trautman among the Broncos’ tight ends. Dulcich might need an injury to fully emerge in full Trey McBride fashion after an injury-plagued second-year. Dulcich has the most upside after flashing as a rookie and has been heavily deployed as a receiver in the preseason. 27% target rate. But if Dulcich can’t stay healthy, Krull looks to be the primary pass-catcher who would be the main benefactor. He leads the Broncos TEs in routes/targets through two preseason contests.
Jelani Woods. Woof. He was left off the Athletic’s 53-man roster projection and did nothing during the preseason game to change his odds. The other Indianapolis Colts’ top tight ends didn’t play, and Woods left the game in the second quarter due to a toe injury.
Final Thoughts
I took a quick look back at some of my preseason takeaways from last season to determine what was noise/news and what was actionable.
QB performances. Don’t let this influence you. Kenny Pickett and Jordan Love were both good in the preseason. Only one carried it over (and it took some time for Love). Mostly, stick to your prior analysis until real games start. Don’t be ‘in” or “out” based solely on what you’ve been seeing these last few weeks.
What is the hierarchy of usage (routes, snaps, etc.), in my opinion? TE, RB and then WR.
Tight-end receiving usage has MAJOR legs during the preseason. Last year’s hits: Cade Otton, David Njoku, Sam LaPorta, Greg Dulcich (avoid).
James Cook was a bellcow in the 2023 preseason and proceeded to be a bellcow (outside the red zone). The same story thus far this preseason. Keep in mind among RBs…Don’t overthink it. Almost every RB is on some type of committee aside from the truly top-tier guys.
Projecting WRs on small sample sizes for routes is extremely difficult, especially when overall targets are more predictive than routes for scoring fantasy points.
However, regarding the Packers’ rotation, their 2023 preseason 3-WR set was exactly how it shook out in the regular season. I am expecting more of the same in 2024.
This is why routes/snaps can be OVERRATED. WR routes help, but it’s still about good and having the ability to command targets. Skyy Moore, Jahan Dotson, Jonathon Mingo, etc. Looked great in the WR usage column during the 2023 preseason. Horrible picks. Being targeted still matters. Most notable names of players with high target rates during the preseason.
Potential low target rate per route to be concerned about: Pat Freiermuth (13%), Tank Dell (11%), Quentin Johnston (9%), Stefon Diggs (8%), Keenan Allen (7%). Zamir White (6%) and Troy Franklin (4%).
Last point, draft guys who can offer abilities as kick returners. Mentioned some last week but here are some more: Malik Washington, Jermaine Burton, Isaiah Williams, Anthony Gould and Jacob Cowing.
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