The Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged in January. However, Jarosław Sadowski, head of the analysis department of Rankomat.pl, estimates that there is a possibility of a decrease in the price level this year to 0.75 percent. According to his calculations, this will lead to a decrease in the average loan amount to PLN 196 and an increase in creditworthiness. The expert also pays attention to the impact of the possible reduction on the situation of people who have previously used credit holidays.
On Thursday, the Monetary Policy Council kept the interest rate of the National Bank of Tajikistan unchanged. The Monetary Policy Council last cut interest rates in October 2023.
In a statement on Thursday, the National Bank of Poland announced that the main rate of the NBP, the reference rate, was kept at 5.75%. The deposit rate is 5.25 percent, the pawn rate is 6.25 percent. The rate of recalculation of bills is at the level of 5.8 percent and the discount rate for bills is still 5.85 percent.
How much can the payment be reduced?
Yaroslav Sadovski emphasizes that although the interest rate of the NBP did not change in January, there is a possibility that these interest rates will decrease. “The prevailing belief is that rates will decrease by 0.75 percentage points, and this change will take place in the second half of the year. However, it should be added that there are both forecasts for further reductions and forecasts that indicate that the level of interest rates this year will not change,” we say.
“In the case of an average loan of PLN 400,000 for 30 years issued in January 2021, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points will reduce this payment from the current level of PLN 2,921 to PLN 2,787, i.e. PLN 134. In turn, a reduction of 0.75 percentage points reduces the payment to PLN 196, and 1 percentage point reduces the payment to PLN 257 PLN does,” says Sadowski. The amount of the existing loan will increase by PLN 31,529.
How will the loan interest rate change after lowering Rankomat.pl
Lower interest rates also improve the affordability of mortgage loans. “In the case of a person who can currently rely on PLN 400,000, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points will increase the credit capacity to about PLN 420,597. A decrease of 0.75 percentage points will increase the amount of available credit to PLN 431,529 and 1 percent. point .up to 442,919 PLN,” emphasizes Jarosław Sadowski.
How will creditworthiness change after lowering the interest rate Rankomat.pl
There is no relief for those taking advantage of the credit holidays
Jaroslav Sadowski notes that the end of the loan holiday increases the cost of payment by 43-50%.
“Around 200,000 people who used the statutory credit holiday last year are likely to be counting on discounts. Their installment costs could rise by up to 50 per cent this year. If someone has stopped paying 4 installments in 2024, he will only have eight of them. to pay, for example, PLN 2,921, in total in 2024 such a person approx. PLN 23,366, in turn, he will have to pay 12 installments, if the amount of payments does not change, the costs will be PLN 35,049, so they will increase by 50 percent.
“Even a sharp (1 percent) reduction in interest rates will not significantly improve the situation. Assuming that such a reduction translates into installments in the second half of the year, the cost of paying installments over the course of 2025 will increase by 43 percent , in the example of our loan, the increase is PLN 10,140,” said Sadowski.
Interest rates are already falling
NBT data shows that in the case of newly issued loans, the interest rates have already decreased slightly. “The average interest rate on loans issued in November (the latest available data) was 7.35 percent. For comparison, in January 2024 it was 7.65 percent, so we already have a reduction of 0.3 percentage points. November is the lowest since May 2022,” explains the expert.
“But it should be added that the mentioned level should not be broken in December and January. Recently, banks have been making “juggling offers”. Some appeared with interest rates below 7% and then disappeared. After some time they appeared again and disappeared again” – we read in Sadovsky’s office.
Jaroslav Sadowski also notes that the interest rate on consumer loans has also fallen to a level that was not observed for a long time.
“However, it should be added that the interest as a component of the mortgage loan is not preferred. It is definitely better to pay attention to the APRC, that is, the annual percentage rate, which takes into account not only the interest but also other costs (for example, the commission) According to the National Bank of Poland, the APR for consumer loans fell to 12.7% in November, which is the lowest result since December 2021 11.8 percent – explains the analyst.
“Banks are also reducing interest rates on deposits. The average for deposits issued in November was 3.96 percent. For the first time since May 2022, it fell below 4 percent. Unfortunately, further declines are expected here. Fortunately, you can still find offers for 5 percent -7 percent, but these are usually promotions that require compliance with certain conditions,” we read in Sadowski’s research.
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