This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: MLB Expert Picks for Friday, August 23
Year to date: 138-139-1Previous post: 1-3 (-3.25 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB Splits
I value splits more than any other metric when it comes to baseball. I look at home/road splits for starting pitchers (full season) and teams (last 30 days) and splits against righties/lefties to get not only a good sample size but also recency. Oddsmakers don't incorporate these into their lines, so I can find value here.
Weather effects
Be sure to check the weather before every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If it's hot and humid, the ball will fly farther. On the other hand, if the wind is blowing and the temperature is low, the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so be careful if you start seeing more runs scored.
Use of the bullpen
Before playing, you should look at each team's bullpen usage. Starting pitchers account for roughly 55 percent of the game. Bullpens are 45 percent, but are often overlooked. When comparing full game play to first 5 innings (F5) play, the combination of bullpen quality and availability is key.
Weekend/Daytime/Doubleheader MLB Betting
Lineups can get very complicated, especially when a daytime game is followed by an evening game. You should refrain from betting on totals (especially team totals) before the lineups are released for the early games. The absence of one or two key players from the lineup can completely change the outlook for the game. I currently avoid doubleheaders altogether, as there are too many unknowns of how the lineups will be constructed unless you are betting the under.
To ensure you get the best odds when placing your bets at the best sports betting sites, use the RotoWire MLB odds page.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Below are some basic guidelines I use when betting on baseball to help me know what units of value to place on each bet.
1.5 – 2.0 units (Best bet – usually full game total or ML/RL play)1 unit (Moneyline/Runline/Total Best Play, System Play)0.75 units (ML/RL/Total Medium Play, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs, F5)0.50 units (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs, Batter Props – TB, HRRBI, Team Total, F5 Runline/Total)0.25 units (Parlay, HR Props, Alt Props)
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles
It's tough to compete against the Orioles as they're the strong home team, but this is a very lopsided pitching matchup with the Orioles sitting at 9-11 this month while the Astros are 13-6.
Hunter Brown is one of my favorites and I'll be featuring him again in this segment. Since June 8th, Brown is third in WAR with 2.5, behind Michael King and Chris Sale. Cade Povich has a 5.77 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He's only pitching because the Orioles' pitching staff is injured.
Povich may have a short lead in this game as the Astros face off against a horrible Orioles relief staff, and the team total over is also a factor.
That's a very low price to pay for an Astros road game. I'm pricing it in the -130 to -140 range.
MLB Astros vs Orioles predictions
Astros ML 1 unit (-115 BetMGM)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox
I usually bet on the Red Sox to win against right-handed pitchers, either on the money line, over the game total, or over the team total, but the total for this matchup is 9.5, possibly even 10, which is too high for me.
This game also features another pitcher I want to root for, Ryne Nelson, who is the fourth-best pitcher in baseball according to WAR since July 1st, due to his limiting walks and home runs. Brayan Bello has been pitching pretty well lately, but he has struggled at home against lefties. The Diamondbacks have the best offense in baseball this month with a 145 wRC+ against righties.
Baseball is a volatile and sometimes painful sport (see my results in the past few articles), but it's also a rewarding sport. The line should be more evenly priced, so get the Diamondbacks.
MLB Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Predictions
Diamondbacks ML 1 Unit (+114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals rank in the top three in home offense and second in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers last month, and are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, averaging 5.0 runs per game.
Taijuan Walker has allowed at least three runs in seven of his last eight starts and has put up some pretty impressive numbers in that time: Since May 22nd, Walker has a 6.13 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, 4.8 walks per nine innings and 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.
MLB Phillies vs Royals Predictions
Royals OVER 2.5 RUNS F5 1 UNIT (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Today's Best Bets Roundup
Astros ML 1 unit (-115 BetMGM)Diamondbacks ML 1 unit (+114 FanDuel)Royals OVER 2.5 runs F5 1 unit (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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