Politician Alexey Tulbure said that the result of the second round of presidential elections in Moldova is a secret for everyone. The mobilization of diaspora and undecided people in the country can work in favor of Maya Sandu, and Alexander Stoyanoglo will get some votes of other candidates from the first round – he added.
– When talking about what can affect the result, we cannot ignore one important factor: buying criminal votes. It is clear that the votes that Moscow paid for will not be given to Sandu, so the beneficiary will be Stojanoglu, noted Alexey Tulbure, a political commentator and former representative of Moldova to the UN and the Council of Europe.
As he emphasized, it is difficult to determine the level of interference in elections, but it is definitely important. Police have confirmed that there are 130,000 people in a network organized by fugitive oligarch Ilan Sor, which is trying to end Chisinau's pro-Western government by and from Moscow. However, these are the only ones that have been tracked.
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Moldovan law enforcement agencies do not have enough resources to find everyone who received money from Moscow through the Sora network. President Maya Sandu said that the goal of these groups is to buy 300,000 votes. According to the police, only in September and October, 29 million dollars entered the country illegally.
In the first round, more than one and a half million citizens voted, therefore, 100 or 200 thousand bought votes can change the outcome of the election. – Despite the large scale of this practice, the authorities do not intend to invalidate the election, and this means that they should try to win under the existing conditions, – emphasized Tulbure.
Moldova is preparing for the second round of presidential elections DUMITRU DORU/PAP/EPA
Sandu “performed much better” in the debate.
Stoyanoglu, a former attorney general who came in second in the first round with about 26 percent of the vote, is certain to win the majority of the vote, supported by the pro-Russian Socialists (who have just announced they will not recognize the EU referendum). votes of other candidates.
Some of them, including pro-Russian Irina Vlah and Moscow-connected Vasile Tarlev and Viktoria Furtuna, have openly called to vote for him. The rest, including the strongest, Renato Usati (almost 14 percent in the first round), without choosing their favorite, left the choice to the citizens.
Maya Sandu, who won 42.4 percent of the votes in the first round, hopes to mobilize the diaspora and a large percentage of unrest voters.
– From this point of view, the debate was important, in which Sandu performed much better. Stoyanoglu's poor performance may also influence the vote of some skeptics. While the current president has a clear message and an unwavering pro-EU position, it is clear that behind Stoiangolo are people of the old formation. During the debate, he talked about friendship with everyone and talked with Putin. These are theses that do not take into account the new reality, Tulbur said.
The primary impact on Sandu's outcome will be whether it mobilizes the traditional Western diaspora.
Aleksandr Stoyanoglo is supported by pro-Russian socialists DUMITRU DORU/PAP/EPA
Tulbur: War and peace exist in the narrative of both sides
As Tulbur pointed out, the war and the appeal to different types of phobias became an important point in the struggle for voters. The political analyst noted that the threat of war is aimed at the current president's opponents, including his outspoken supporters, who accuse him of leading the country to war, allegedly threatening the sacred neutrality of Moldova and angering Russia.
– War and peace exist in the stories of both sides. The Sandu camp believes that the victory of pro-Russian forces and the return of Moldova to Moscow's orbit is a danger. If this country becomes a representative of Russia, war will come immediately. The expert warned that Moscow could use Moldova to act against Ukraine.
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According to him, although Moldova is a parliamentary republic, Sandu's possible victory is of key importance for the country's European policy. – He is a political phenomenon in our region. He has never deviated from his goal – European integration. Therefore, it is important that he remains in this position as a symbol of this policy direction. On the other hand, lessons should be learned from mistakes. May Sandu's camp is much weaker than his own, and Moldova will have parliamentary elections next year, Tulbure concluded.
The second round of elections will be held on Sunday, November 3.
Main photo source: DUMITRU DORU/PAP/EPA
