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Anura Kumara Dissanayake wants the new year to be a turning point for the country
The stunning election victories of a new left-wing president and his party have changed Sri Lanka’s political landscape – but the cash-strapped island’s new leaders are quickly realizing that election promises are easier to make than to hold.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s remarkable victory in September’s presidential election was quickly followed by a landslide victory for her alliance, the National People’s Power (NPP), in the parliamentary elections.
As a new year begins, he and his supporters want it to be a turning point for the country, which is trying to recover from a devastating economic crisis and years of mismanagement.
However, they have limited room to deliver on promises made to voters, whose expectations of the new government are high.
Since the financial crisis of 2022, the economic recovery has been fragile and Sri Lanka is far from out of the woods.
The NPP won 159 seats in the 225-member Assembly in November – an unprecedented two-thirds majority – giving Dissanayake a broad mandate to push through major economic and constitutional reforms.
However, even as the results were coming in, the new president was expected to prepare for a meeting with a visiting delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with whom the outgoing government had negotiated a $2.9 billion bailout package ( £2.31 billion). .
The IMF deal became controversial as it led to harsh austerity measures, tax increases and cuts in energy subsidies, hitting citizens hard.
During the campaign, Dissanayake and his alliance promised to renegotiate parts of the agreement with the IMF.
But in his speech to the new parliament, he made an about-face.
“The economy is in such a state that it cannot withstand even the slightest shock… There is no room for error,” Dissanayake said.
“This is not the time to discuss whether the conditions (of the IMF loan) are good or bad, whether the agreement is favorable to us or not… The process lasted about two years and we cannot start all over again “
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An uprising driven by economic frustrations toppled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022.
Voters’ overwhelming verdict in favor of the NPP is seen as the culmination of a popular uprising sparked by the economic crisis. The uprising toppled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the summer of 2022, when Sri Lanka ran out of foreign currency and struggled to import food and fuel.
The country had already declared bankruptcy after defaulting on its foreign debt of around $46 billion. India, China and Japan are among those who have lent billions of dollars.
Recent election results also reflect public anger at established political parties – former presidents Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe and others – for their failure to deal with the economic crisis.
“One of Dissanayake’s priorities will be to provide some economic relief to the people due to excessive taxation and cost of living crisis. Debt management is another big challenge,” said Professor Jayadeva Uyangoda, veteran political analyst, at the BBC.
So far, the massive political changes do not appear to have had an impact on people like Niluka Dilrukshi, a mother of four who lives in a suburb of the capital Colombo. Her husband is a day laborer and the family still struggles to provide for them.
The BBC spoke to him about the soaring cost of living in January 2022, months before mass protests began.
At that time, she said her family only ate two meals a day, instead of three, and gave only vegetables and rice to her children due to the high cost of fish and meat.
“We are still struggling to make ends meet and nothing has changed. The price of rice, which is the staple food, has increased further. We are not getting any relief from the government,” says Ms. Dilrukshi .
People like her want the new government to take immediate action to reduce the cost of basic necessities. Sri Lanka is an import-dependent country and requires foreign exchange to import products like food and medicine.
For now, Colombo is able to maintain its foreign exchange reserves since it has suspended debt repayments.
The real fight, experts point out, will likely begin in the next three or four years, when the country begins paying off its debt.
People’s perception of President Dissanayake and his new government may change if there is no visible change in their standard of living over the next two to three years.
“People have given it a huge mandate. The IMF should respect that by allowing it to provide some assistance to the people through social protection programs,” says Professor Uyangoda.
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Sri Lankans want new government to reduce prices of basic necessities
Dissanayake also has to deal with India and China, who are competing for influence in Sri Lanka, where both have invested massively in recent years.
“Both India and China will try to bring Colombo under their sphere of influence. I think the new government’s foreign policy will be very pragmatic and will not align itself with anyone,” says Prof Uyangoda.
In a cautious diplomatic move, Dissanayake chose Delhi as his first official overseas destination in mid-December. During the visit, India promised to supply liquefied natural gas to Sri Lanka’s power plants and work towards connecting the two countries’ power grids in the long term.
China’s growing presence in Sri Lanka, particularly stopovers by Chinese “research” ships at the island’s ports – so close to India’s southern tip – have raised concerns in Delhi.
“I have given assurance to the Indian Prime Minister that we will not allow our land to be used in a manner detrimental to India’s interests,” Dissanayake said after talks with Narendra Modi.
Delhi will no doubt be happy with this assurance, but Dissanayake will find out what Beijing expects when he visits China in mid-January.
