Fuel prices at gas stations may be higher – Refleks analysts say. According to the e-petrol.pl portal, domestic refineries have been raising prices since Christmas in response to the rise in crude oil prices and the depreciation of the Polish zloty, and station operators are not compensating for this increase with reduced margins.
Refleks analysts wrote in their commentary that “although during the first monitoring of fuel prices at stations this year, we noted a slight decrease in average fuel prices, but we may see higher prices next week.”
They noted that drivers are currently paying 1-3 groschi less per liter of gasoline than in the last days of December. Diesel is about 3 cents cheaper and autogas prices are on average 2 cents cheaper per litre. Analysts showed that on January 2, the average price of fuel: PLN 6.04/l unleaded gasoline, PLN 6.81/l for 98 fuel, PLN 6.13/l for gasoline and PLN 3.16/l for autogas.
According to Refleks, 95-lead fuel is 21 cents cheaper than a year ago, gasoline 98 cents 1 cent, and diesel 3 cents cheaper per liter. The exception is autogas, which costs 24 grosz per liter.
Fuel price forecast for January
On Friday, e-petrol.pl portal analysts presented a forecast of the retail fuel market for the second week of January. It is expected that drivers will pay 5.97-6.08/l for gasoline 95 E10, 6.08-6.19/l for diesel and 3.16-3.22/l for autogas.
“At the beginning of the year, a liter of 95-octane gasoline became cheaper than 6 PLN. However, this kind of buying and selling of prices will not last long, because the direction of the wholesale change clearly indicates the upcoming price increase at the stations,” he added. e-patrul portal analysts said.
According to Refleks analysts, from January 6 to 12 of this year. the average retail price of unleaded gasoline 95 will be from 6.04 to 6.10/l, leaded 98 – 6.80-6.85/l, diesel fuel – from 6.13 to 6.18/l. One liter of autogas can cost PLN 3.18-3.23.
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Sources of fuel price increase
The experts of the e-petrol portal emphasized that the domestic producers of fuel regularly increase the prices since the holidays. “Currently, 95-octane gasoline is at a level not seen since August last year, and diesel is the most expensive gasoline since November,” they say.
Their data shows that a cubic meter of E10 gasoline costs PLN 4,745.80 on average today, PLN 76 more expensive than on Christmas Eve. In the same period, the price of diesel oil increased by 90 pounds and reached 4956.20 pounds.
According to analysts, the increase in fuel prices introduced in the new year is only partially responsible for this upward movement. According to them, the sources of growth should be sought mainly in the rise in oil prices and the weakening of the Polish zloty against the US dollar.
They added that the discount at gas stations was made due to the margin of retail operators, which fell to a low level, especially in the case of diesel. “This means that the options for amortization of changes in the wholesale market are limited and fuel costs will increase in the coming days,” analysts predict.
Forecasts for the fuel market for 2025
According to Refleks analysts, the price of Brent crude oil at the beginning of the year is at the level of 75-76 dollars. a barrel, which – according to them – with the decrease in the exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the dollar, will already lead to an increase in the price in the domestic wholesale market. They added that the rise in prices was due to a smaller-than-expected decline in US crude inventories in the last week of December (1.18 million barrels, compared with a decline of 3.1 million barrels expected) and the possibility of increased demand for oil due to lower supported the increase in temperature. in the US and Europe. According to experts, China will also remain in focus due to the release of macroeconomic data next week.
According to e-patrol analysts, the beginning of 2025 for the oil market was announced with an increase in demand, which will be mainly the result of the “awakening” of the Chinese market. “This is expected to come from the issuance of a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) of special treasury bonds in 2025. In addition, the country has given refineries a second tranche of oil import quotas of at least 152.49 million will be tons in 2025,” the analysts noted. They pointed out that the World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, which could confirm the vision of increased oil and fuel imports.
According to analysts, the International Energy Agency in its current forecast expects that the world oil supply will exceed demand in 2025. They speculate that this could happen even if the OPEC+ cuts remain, and that the reason for this is increased production from the US and other non-state producers, which exceeds weak demand.
According to them, “President (Donald) Trump’s administration’s approach to the mining industry, as well as its actions towards other exporters, including Iran and Venezuela, which are under sanctions, will make a lot of sense.” They emphasized that Iran is aware of this, as recent statistics show that oil exports from the country have increased “drastically” after a decline in the first half of December 2024 and reached the highest level at the beginning of this year. in six years. They also noted that Oil Minister Mohsin Paknejod announced that Iran is ready to “face” additional sanctions on oil exports that will be imposed after Donald Trump takes office.
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