The ongoing political crisis is unprecedented in South Korea's democratic history, but it should not threaten the country's security, said Dr. Oskar Pietrewicz from the Polish Institute of International Relations. According to the analyst, the dispute is not only about the legal complications of the impeachment of Jun Suk-jeol and Han Duk-soo, but also about the political calculations of both sides of the conflict.
On Friday, South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach acting President Han Duk-soo. 192 deputies in the 300-seat parliament voted in favor of dismissal. According to the law, the position of the head of state was assumed by the Minister of Finance Choi Sang Mok.
– This is a completely unique situation. Dr. Oskar Pietrewicz from the Polish International Institute says that since the beginning of the 1980s and 1990s, the beginning of democracy in South Korea, the current president has been impeached twice, but the acting president has never been impeached. Works (PISM).
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Prime Minister Han has been acting head of state since December 14, when President Jung Suk-jeol was suspended due to the imposition of martial law on December 3, which was lifted hours later. Within 180 days from December 14, the Constitutional Court must examine whether there are sufficient grounds to initiate impeachment proceedings. If six out of nine judges approve the decision of the parliament, the head of state will finally leave his post. On Friday, the Constitutional Court held the first preparatory hearing on this case.
Supporters of Jung Suk-Jol protest in Seoul PAP/EPA/HAN MYUNG-GU
There is no prospect for a quick exit from the political crisis
The main opposition group, the Progressive Democratic Party (PD), which controls parliament, moved to impeach Khan after he refused to appoint three judges he had proposed to fill vacancies on the Constitutional Court (now the Constitutional Court). there are six judges) refused. .
The Democratic Party sought to have Jun's case heard by the full court, as this would increase the chances of the Constitutional Court upholding the parliament's impeachment decision.
South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach President Han Duk.
Pietrevich believes that there is no prospect of a quick exit from the ongoing political crisis. – This is a situation of great political chaos, in which there is no sign that either side will give up, – he says.
According to the analyst, the dispute is not only about the legal complications of the impeachment of Jun and Han, but also about the political calculations of both sides of the conflict. As Pitrevic reminds, if the Constitutional Court upholds the proposal of the parliament, the president will be deprived of his office and early elections must be held within 60 days.
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– The goal of the opposition is to start the impeachment trial before the Constitutional Court as soon as possible and, if successful, to join the presidential campaign, – says Pietrevich, noting that the advantage of the Democratic Party in the polls has been increasing recently. According to a Gallup Korea poll from mid-December, 48 percent support the group and 24 percent support the conservative ruling People's Party (PSN). voters.
In turn, PSN wants to delay this process – says the analyst. This can make it easier for the opposition to take responsibility for political chaos and allow the party to present itself as a force that cares about the stable functioning of the state.
– Conservatives hope that the longer this situation remains, the more it will turn into a decrease in public support for the opposition, – says Pietrevich.
In addition, conservatives can also count on a final verdict on one of the criminal cases against Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung during the long chaos, which would prevent him from running for president, he said. .
South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach President Han Duk.
Pietrevich: South Korea's security is not at risk
Pietrewicz notes that this chaos could lead to the paralysis of the state: “Perhaps every week there will be a vote on the impeachment of the acting president. Getting a simple majority (151 out of 300 deputies in total) is a piece of cake for the opposition in the parliament. It has 192 seats.
In response to the question of whether the current situation could threaten the country's security, the analyst replied that “it creates a feeling of instability (…), but it does not mean that South Korea is now a defenseless country against threats.”
– The state operates because it is a big political struggle at the top, but the lower officials behave as they should, – he says. In addition, as he notes, the Americans are trying to emphasize that they are investing in the alliance with South Korea even in such difficult conditions.
On Friday, shortly after taking power, Choi announced that South Korean forces were on high alert due to the increased threat of provocations from North Korea.
However, the analyst doubts that North Korea is trying to take advantage of the instability in Seoul to launch a large-scale provocation against South Korea. – This does not mean that North Korea, for example, will not conduct some missile tests, although not necessarily because of the situation in South Korea, but because President Donald Trump will soon take the presidency (in the US), – he notes. .
“Maybe North Korea will decide that a kind of political welcome from the new president can be a missile test, which is proof that the next step in the development of nuclear and missile capabilities has been taken,” says the analyst.
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/HAN MYUNG-GU
