Earlier this month, South Korea and Tajikistan signed an agreement to launch a feasibility study for the Jalodini-Balkhi-Jaihun-Nizhni-Panj railway project, a 51-kilometer rail line that would extend Tajikistan's rail network to the Afghanistan border at Nizhni-Panj (also known as Panj Poyon in the Pamir Mountains). The feasibility study, expected to cost $4 million, aims to determine whether and under what conditions the rail project is technically, financially and economically feasible.
The proposed route would run directly from Tajikistan's capital, Dushanbe, to the town of Jalodini-Balkhi, then to Nizhni-Panj, eliminating the need to transfer cargo from rail to road, where it would be transported by truck across the border and a bridge over the Panj River to Sher Khan Bandar in Afghanistan.
Once in Afghanistan, the goods will be transferred back to rail for transport from Kunduz and Mazar-i-Sharif to the Torkham border with Pakistan or to Turkmenistan. A 65-kilometer rail route from Kunduz and Mazar-i-Sharif further into Turkmenistan has yet to be built. This extension would form the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan railway corridor.
The Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), a government agency under the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs responsible for development aid, is funding the feasibility study.
View from Tajikistan
This proposed rail corridor is important for two reasons. First, it will increase Tajikistan's transportation capacity by allowing Turkmenistan rail traffic to reach Tajikistan without passing through Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have a history of distrusting trucks crossing their borders and charging high transportation fees. Another reason this rail corridor is important is that it will enable Tajikistan to capture export and transportation revenues and attract more transport flows.
Tajikistan plans to facilitate international freight transport through its territory but its options are limited due to its almost total reliance on Uzbekistan for transport, so Dushanbe has made it a priority to achieve as much transport independence as practically possible.
In 1999, President Emomali Rahmon promoted the construction of a transcontinental highway from Tashkent to Dushanbe or from Termez to Dushanbe, and also from there to Pakistan via the Karakoram highway, but after a few years the emphasis shifted to links between Tajikistan and China, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan. The Jaloliddini-Balkhi-Jaihun-Nizhni-Panj railway project falls into the latter category.
For Tajikistan, such transport projects are seen as a way to promote the country as a transport hub, a position that many Central Asian countries are now competing for.
This is an ambitious railway project. The challenge is that Tajikistan is landlocked and a very large country. It needs an extensive and functioning railway infrastructure to gain access to seaports, which are crucial for economic growth. Most of the country's infrastructure dates back to the Soviet era and is in need of repair and renovation.
The main challenges for the railway project include instability and environmental constraints. Although the project is primarily driven by Tajikistan, much of the route actually passes through Afghanistan. It starts in central Tajikistan but has to cross Afghanistan to reach the port. So Afghanistan is a key stakeholder and has different requirements that need to be balanced. Environmental considerations are also a challenge. The railway line runs mainly through the mountainous and rugged terrain of the Pamir Highlands.
A Korean Perspective
South Korea has long toyed with the idea of building a railway across Asia to Central Asia, and in 2015 South Korean National Assembly Speaker Chung Eui-hwa met with President Rahmon and expressed South Korea's desire to cooperate with Tajikistan on transport infrastructure, including rail.
South Korea’s interest in Tajikistan’s railways is part of the country’s broader plan to create a trans-Korean railway corridor. First conceived by then-South Korean President Park Geun-hye in October 2013, the New Northern Policy was announced and further strengthened in 2017 by then-President Moon Jae-in. The aim of the policy was to reconnect the railways between North and South Korea and establish a new transportation network not only on the Korean peninsula but throughout Northeast Asia. This would allow rail freight to travel between South and North Korea, Russia, China and even Central Asia.
While deteriorating political relations have made a North-South railway section increasingly unlikely, South Korea remains interested in the Eurasian section.
In August 2023, Korea Railroad Corporation, South Korea’s state-run railway operator, was awarded a consulting services contract for the “Preliminary Study on the Construction and Operation of an Urban Railway in Tajikistan.” The contract will run from August 2023 to June 2024, marking Korea’s first consulting project in Central Asia.
For South Korea, Tajikistan's rail infrastructure is important for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, there are plans to connect Tajikistan's rail network to the broader Trans-Korean Rail Corridor, thereby helping to reduce dependency on maritime routes through the South China Sea, the Straits of Malacca, and the Suez Canal. Events occurring on these major shipping routes have antagonized countries that depend on them and have been a source of conflict. This has caused a lot of trade uncertainty and instability, leading many countries to adopt a more aggressive corridor approach in their foreign policy strategies and to seek alternative shipping routes.
However, current inter-Korean relations are largely hostile, and the future of the Jaloriddini-Balkhi-Jahun-Nizhni-Panji railway project, which would have led to a trans-Korean rail network, is uncertain. In February 2024, North Korea's parliament voted to scrap all economic cooperation agreements with South Korea, and major projects have been halted.
Railway projects, like all other infrastructure projects in the transport industry, are long-term and do not, as a rule, provide immediate benefits. Therefore, foreign investors, such as Korea Railroad Corporation, which is conducting feasibility studies, need to know whether the country will be permanently stable before making any investments. Due to the lack of regional cooperation in Central Asia, it is difficult to predict the benefits of this railway line at this stage.
For railways to function effectively, some degree of political consent is a prerequisite. Although Central Asian countries are working to harmonize their cross-border systems, they are still a long way from establishing an integrated national transport network. To develop the transport potential of Tajikistan and the entire region, countries need to establish non-discriminatory policies on transport rates, set up intermodal logistics centers, resolve border disputes, and invest in new roads and railways while rehabilitating existing ones.
Conclusion
The importance of transport corridors is clear. Integration efforts in Central Asia are developing on two fronts: geopolitical and economic. Geopolitical factors may hinder the economic and commercial viability of these projects.
With such large infrastructure projects, it is important to take a long-term view. Once relations between Russia, the US and Europe return to some degree of normalcy, the strength of the Central Asian transport corridor will give it increased transport advantages and make it a strong competitor to other major shipping routes such as the South China Sea, the Strait of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal. This will increase Central Asia’s importance and influence in global affairs.
