Whether you’re a fan of the FedEx Cup’s format or not, the fact of the matter is: This is our last chance to bet the PGA Tour before the season is over. Our Golf Digest expert panel is heating up at the end of the season, and they have identified several best bets for the Tour Championship at the restored East Lake Golf Club. So add some golf bets to your college football cards for the weekend, and sweat out some golf for the last time in the 2023-’24 season.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of East Lake, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Tour Championship.
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Ludvig Aberg, with starting strokes (22-1, FanDuel) — The talented Swede came up just shy last week, but if you look closer at his play, his sloppy bogeys were really a result of some poor club choices playing at altitude. That’s not the case this week at East Lake. He’s essentially a better approach-playing version of Rory McIlroy right now, and you get some very good odds for the talented rookie to lift the FedEx Cup trophy and cement himself as one of golf’s biggest stars.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Tommy Fleetwood, without starting strokes (20-1, FanDuel) — Unsurprisingly, Tommy Lad rebounded from a career-worse mark, losing eight strokes/putting in Memphis back into the positives at the BMW. The driving and irons remained as steady as ever. So, now, Tommy has a chance to pull a full Tommy: Win the 72-stroke play tournament without coming close to actually winning the overall.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tommy Fleetwood, without starting strokes (20-1, FanDuel) — Fleetwood’s playing better golf than people probably realize, especially with his irons trending up of late. His putting has been hot and cold, and while he’s starting at just 1-under, he has a real shot to post the best four-round score at a course where he has played solidly.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Xander Schauffele, without starting strokes (+470, FanDuel) — In seven trips to East Lake, Xander Schauffele has finished with the low gross score three times! Strokes or no strokes, Schauffele has never finished worse than seventh. I know the course has changed, but that will only favor Xander more. Firm greens favor his scrambling ability. Grainy Bermudagrass never works well for Scottie. Two majors and a FedEx Cup, let the Player of the Year argument begin!
Watch the below video for Read The Line’s breakdown of the 2024 Creator Classic:
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Sam Burns, without starting strokes (16-1, DraftKings) — Xander and Scottie are talking about fatigue heading into this week, but you don’t hear Sam Burns complaining about it. He came up just shy last week with his Sunday 65, and now he gets the type of Bermuda test where he thrives. He needs to drive it straighter than his baseline, but give us his ball-striking performance from last week, and he can chase down the big guns.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Sam Burns, without starting strokes (16-1, DraftKings) — Bermuda Burns is scorching hot right now, finishing T-12 or better in three straight starts. He’s fresh off a final-round 65 at Castle Pines, his sixth round of 67 or lower in his last 14 rounds on the PGA Tour. That kind of birdie-making ability is what you’re going to need to hit a winner in the without starting strokes market. Burns will start six back of his best bud at East Lake, so he’ll need to be firing at flags out of the gate.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Tommy Fleetwood, without starting strokes (20-1, FanDuel) — I feel a lot better about Tommy Fleetwood in any situation where he doesn’t have to win the actual tournament, and he is one of my favorite plays in the Without Starting Strokes market. Fleetwood is coming off another top-five finish at the BMW Championship, and now he returns to Bermuda-grass, where he has experienced considerable success over the course of his career.
Past results: The panel is SCORCHING hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
Caddie: Billy Horschel, without starting strokes (33-1, FanDuel) — We know Billy loves this course, having lifted a FedEx Cup trophy in the past. And he might be playing the best golf of his career since that title. He’ll be super-motivated this week, knowing a great week gets him on the Presidents Cup team.
Mayo: Tom Hoge, without starting strokes (65-1, FanDuel) — It’s been months since Hoge put together elite approach weeks in a row. Yet after leading all players in Denver, backing Hoge feels actionable again at a course where irons and putting win the day. Of concern, Hoge’s dropped strokes with his putter in five straight, but he’s now back on Bermuda. Hoge’s been marginally positive on Bermuda greens over the past two years. And he did gain four strokes/putting in his only appearance at East Lake.
Gdula: Patrick Cantlay, with starting strokes (45-1, FanDuel) — Cantlay is starting at 4-under and has to run down a few big names, but we have seen someone win the Tour Championship from 4-under before, and his game is solid overall. The underlying data for him is still quite good, and he has a high ceiling even without playing to his peak potential of late.
Stewart: Sam Burns, without starting strokes (25-1, Bet365) — Sam Burns finished 13th at 3M, a very difficult driving course. Burns then finished fifth at the FedEx St. Jude, a Bermudagrass putting test. Last week, Sam was the BMW runner-up when he shot 65 on Sunday. A total test of golf in Denver, Burns gained over eight shots on the field. Bring him to another Bermudagrass playground in great form, and he’ll take home the gross title.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas, without starting strokes (29-1, FanDuel) — It would be a perfect narrative after last year coming up one shy of making the playoffs … he was the last man into the Tour Championship this year. He doesn’t have much to lose and can play free and loose, knowing a big week can ensure a spot on the Presidents Cup team.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns, with starting strokes (40-1, DraftKings) — I mean, why the hell not? Scheffler seems to be limping into the Tour Championship, and him already showing disdain for the end-of-year format tells me the thought of losing the FedEx Cup (again) has already entered his head. Burns will be one of many trying to chase him down early on Thursday, and if Scheffler starts off slow, it’s anybody’s tournament again. Let’s go for the double winner.
Lack: Billy Horschel, without starting strokes (33-1, FanDuel) — Billy Horschel has already won a Tour Championship at East Lake, and he is coming off another strong performance at the BMW Championship where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories. Horschel has been known to heat up at this time of year, and he has now gained three strokes ball-striking in four straight starts.
Caddie: Hideki Matsuyama (12-1, FanDuel) — Last week might’ve been a cautionary WD from Hideki, but he’s clearly not 100 percent, and that’s reason enough to believe one of the other stars will get it done.
Mayo: Scottie Scheffler, with strokes (+110, FanDuel) — Of course he can figure it out, but in four starts at East Lake, Scheffler has never gained on the greens, losing on average 1.25 strokes putting per round over his past 12 rounds.
Gdula: Hideki Matsuyama (12-1, FanDuel) — Hideki was good to me at TPC Southwind, but I just don’t see enough value here to account for his back injury and WD last week.
Stewart: Scottie Scheffler, without starting strokes (+470, FanDuel) — For the third year in a row, Scottie Scheffler arrives in Atlanta as the favorite to win the FedEx Cup. East Lake has not been a happy place for Scheffler. Some believe changes to the course might help him, but I think that will only make the task of winning harder. Scottie is a not a good Bermudagrass putter. These brand-new greens will be some of the grainiest surfaces he has seen all year. Much like Pinehurst, East Lake will provide a ton of unpredictable bounces. Scheffler is on record stating how much that frustrates him. A combination of changed characteristics still lead me to believe Scottie will be second for the third year in a row.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Scottie Scheffler, without starting strokes (+470, FanDuel) — I’ll echo Stewart’s sharp analysis above. It’s tough to get excited about these awful odds with Scheffler.
Powers, Golf Digest: Hideki Matsuyama (12-1, FanDuel) — It’s been confirmed that Matsuyama won’t be 100 percent this week. Knowing him, he’ll probably win now, but it’s still too risky at 11-1.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (12-1, FanDuel) — Tracking down Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele when all players are starting even is a difficult enough task. I don’t have a lot of confidence that Hideki Matsuyama in sub-optimal health has the fire power to come back and steal this tournament. I’ll gladly pass at this number
Caddie: Billy Horschel (+140) over Tommy Fleetwood (FanDuel) — I understand Tommy’s playing great golf, but so is Horschel, so I don’t think the Florida Gator should be this much of an underdog.
Mayo: Xander Schauffele (+150) over Scottie Scheffler (Bet365) — Sure, he starts a stroke behind, but East Lake has been one of Xander’s best all-time courses where Scottie has just never figured out these greens.
Gdula: Taylor Pendrith (-120) over Chris Kirk (FanDuel) — Pendrith has the edge both in iron play and putting in recent rounds. That leads to a large overall skill gap when factoring in all four strokes-gained facets.
Stewart: Shane Lowry (-120) over Sahith Theegala (DraftKings) — Sahith Theegala qualified for the Presidents Cup team on points. He has no reason to push in Atlanta, and that’s good. Theegala has been battling an arm injury and could use the rest. He’s here to play, but I don’t believe he will try to aggravate it. Shane Lowry fits East Lake’s design. An accurate driver, Lowry also excels on approach. A solid Bermudagrass putter, Lowry can go low on courses like this where after a bad bounce or two, he can get up and down to save par.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (+150) over Scottie Scheffler (Bet365) — I’m following Mayo on this one—I have a ton more confidence in Xander’s putting and record at East Lake here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (-140) over Wyndham Clark (DraftKings) — Wyndham has certainly been better of late and almost rode the home crowd’s energy to a top 10 in Colorado, but the approach game still isn’t all the way back yet. Cantlay, meanwhile, has gained strokes ball-striking in five straight events, and he’s finished T-7 or better at East Lake three consecutive years.
Lack: Byeong Hun An (-120) over Akshay Bhatia (DraftKings) — Byeong Hun An is coming off a 13th-place finish last week at the BMW Championship, where he gained over three strokes off the tee and three strokes putting, and he possesses all of the tee-to-green skill necessary to succeed at the revamped version of East Lake. Akshay Bhatia, on the other hand, is coming off his worst iron performance of the season at Castle Pines, where he lost a whopping 11.4 strokes on approach.
Matchup Results from the BMW Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (Hovland (+105) over Matsuyama); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Pendrith (-115) over Eckroat); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Schauffele (+125) over Scheffler); Stewart: PUSH (Rai (-120) over Young); Caddie: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1;
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 21-11-2 (up 7.61 units); Caddie: 20-13-0 (up 5.29 units); Gdula: 19-12-3 (up 4.7 units); Hennessey: 18-12-4 (up 4.7 units); Powers: 16-15-2 (up 0.66 units); Mayo: 17-16-1 (up 0.61 units); Stewart: 13-19-2 (down 6.96 units)
Caddie: Keegan Bradley (-150, FanDuel) — You’ll need savvy touch with your approach play with these ultra-firm greens this week at East Lake, and that’s exactly the type of formula Keegan used to win last week.
Mayo: Sam Burns (+100, DraftKings) — Top 5s in both playoff events to date, beyond his scorching flat stick, Burns in the midst of his most consistent approach stretch since last summer. He’s gaining over two strokes per event with his irons over these past four starts. That’s not likely enough for someone to win, but eclipsing six strokes on the greens is well within his purview at the moment. That can cover up non-elite tee-to-green totals.
Gdula: Russell Henley (+180, FanDuel) — Henley starts at 2-under, so he’s within shouting distance of the top 10 already. But he’s an accurate driver who putts well on Bermuda, and in recent rounds (the last 50 for each golfer), he ranks fifth in strokes gained/approach through putting.
Stewart: Billy Horschel (+275, BetRivers) — Who’s better on grainy Bermudagrass than Billy Horschel? Horschel has been on a heater since his runner-up finish at the Open Championship. Motivated to earn one of those coveted captain’s picks on the Presidents Cup team, Billy will grind his way to Royal Montreal. Horschel is gaining an average of six strokes on the field in his past five starts and carries an incredible edge this week. A past FedEx Cup Champion, he knows what it takes to win at East Lake. On a week where there will be wild bounces and grainy greens, take the tour’s toughest competitor at the Tour Championship.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sungjae Im (+150, DraftKings) — This is a great fit for Sungjae, who has proven East Lake is his jam.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sungjae Im (+150, DraftKings) — Plus money on a top 10 for a guy who is literally starting the week T-11 is not something I’m passing up. Last week marked Im’s ninth finish of T-12 or better in his last 12 starts.
Lack: Sungjae Im (+150, DraftKings) — Sungjae Im continues to play some rock solid golf in the back half of the season, and he is coming off an 11th-place finish at the BMW Championship where he gained over a stroke in both ball-striking categories. Im already has a runner-up under his belt at East Lake, and he possesses a long track record of success at Southeastern Bermuda courses.
Top-10 results from the BMW Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Ludvig Aberg +162); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 11 for 34 (up 66.35 units); Mayo: 6 for 34 (down 6.5 units); Powers: 6 for 34 (down 6.6 units); Caddie: 7 for 33 (down 5.93 units); Stewart: 6 for 34 (down 9.42 units); Gdula: 5 for 34 (down 9.9 units); Lack: 6 for 34 (down 13.55 units)
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
