Is this possible? A few days ago, President Trump’s National Security Adviser Michael Walz was preparing his boss for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, which was to be preceded by a telephone conversation between the two leaders. admitted that. “Everyone knows that wars have to end diplomatically,” the politician said in an interview on ABC television.
dream of being decapitated
Walz stressed that Kiev must first stop Russian aggression and thereby strengthen its own negotiating position. “It’s important that we stabilize the front so that we can start to reach some kind of agreement,” he said.
It’s hard to disagree with his opinion. It is important to stabilize the front line. It’s not because Russia is advancing like crazy and Ukraine’s defenses are collapsing. We do not and will not have to deal with such situations.
But Russia’s point advances firstly give Moscow hope that it will be able to recover at some point (because the Ukrainian army will relent), and secondly, they give Moscow hope that it will be able to get back on its feet at some point (because the Ukrainian army will relent), and secondly, it will limit the limited goals of “special operations”. make it possible to achieve. , in this case, the prospect of controlling the entire Donetsk region arises. And thirdly, subsequent achievements, albeit symbolic, give the illusion of independence and strength of Russia and its armed forces. The Kremlin calculates that the world will fall for this and pressure Kiev to end the war, even under unfavorable conditions. In any case, the situation in which the operational leadership is on the Russian side hardens Moscow. Concrete the entire length of the facade would make the Kremlin’s attitude and expectations more realistic, which would actually work in Ukraine’s favor.
But 30 days is not possible…
Enforcing peace by force
Ukraine cannot force the federation to dialogue, and Russia (for now) does not want one, limiting President Trump’s scope for action. Ukrainians believe that the new US president will not agree to a deal that weakens him in the eyes of public opinion. They are looking forward to a policy of “enforcing peace through force.” I would not rule out such a scenario, but a sober view suggests that the US government will first push for a solution that is less favorable to Ukraine. The United States will “slap its hands on the table” only if the Russian side considers their compromise insufficient and says “no!”
Will they literally be a hit? In the fall of 2022, the Joe Biden administration threatened Moscow that U.S. forces would annihilate Russian forces in Ukraine if the Kremlin decided to use nuclear weapons (at the time, Russia was facing severe defeats on the front and using nuclear weapons). ). ). As then, the United States’ potential would allow it to inflict a significant blow on Russia without resorting to nuclear weapons. That will become even easier given the continued decline in the Russian military’s technological capabilities. Suffice it to say that “along the way” it lost many of its most valuable assets, including many S-400 anti-aircraft systems. In other words, President Trump has a powerful stick within his reach, and he doesn’t have to use it, just wave it. But does he have enough charisma to play so hard and bunk with the Russians? I sincerely wonder.
Another way to “enforce peace” is to expand the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU). Currently, that number is over 900,000. soldiers. Quite a lot, considering the fact that the Russian contingent in Ukraine is 600,000 people. A total of 800,000 people are involved in the conflict. Russian. The problem is that there is enough quality equipment for half of the ZSU staff. The rest belong to “naked” brigades, which have little value. This situation would change if there were weapons from abroad, but according to the calculations of Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, it would be necessary to allocate 1.4 thousand soldiers for every 100 thousand soldiers. 4,000 tanks, combat vehicles, and 15,000 artillery pieces. Such a force would perform “miracles,” but activating it is a difficult task even for the United States. A mere threat to arm Ukrainians for much longer than 30 days probably won’t be enough.
Soldiers only consume, not produce.
Maybe it’s economic pressure? The issue of allowing Russia to participate in full economic exchanges again appears to be important to the Kremlin. The problem is that if this is allowed, the Federation will rebuild its degraded military capabilities within years or decades. This would once again put the fate of not only Ukraine, but also Russia’s neighbors, at risk. Western countries, and by extension the United States, must take this situation into account. Figuratively speaking, manipulate Moscow so that the carrot you are given does not turn into a stick.
Still, there’s room to play. The war impoverished Russian society. It has created “island beneficiaries” such as defense workers, veterans, and families of fallen soldiers. They all receive the kind of money they once dreamed of. But the rest of the population has gotten poorer and continues to get poorer. And let’s take into account the structure of the Russian economy, that is, the fact that most enterprises, regardless of their nominal ownership form, are dependent on the state. Meanwhile, the state’s savings were depleted. The future fund, or state rainy day fund, has been cut in half. And he continues to decline.
Parameters such as GDP and unemployment rate may suggest that all is well, but let’s take a closer look. There is very little unemployment as the military has taken much of the most valuable potential population from the market. Fighting is also a job and very lucrative in Russia, but what is its added value? Soldiers only consume and do not produce anything. A similar dependence is observed when raising GDP. The increase is due to increased activity in weapons factories, but the vast majority of their production is incinerated in Ukraine. I was literally burnt out.
Will Trump be able to convince his allies?
And it could be concluded for a long time that the Russian economy is having trouble breathing. At the same time, $300 billion is “sleeping” in the West as frozen assets of central banks. This is far more than what Russia has spent so far on the Ukraine war ($200 billion), and from the point of view of the interests of President Putin and his regime, it will help ensure a soft landing for Russia after the chaos of the war. That’s enough.
So what if we threaten Moscow with confiscation of this property? The Biden administration has already begun moving, trying to persuade European allies to transfer these $300 billion into trust accounts that will only be unfrozen as part of a deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow will receive a clear signal: “If you want your money back, you have to come and talk.”
According to CNN, the idea was consulted with Trump’s top aides, including Marco Rubio, who will become secretary of state, and Michael Walz, who was mentioned earlier. Sources on the editorial team say President Trump also supported such a strategy, believing it would quickly bring Russia to the negotiating table.
problem? One; 280 billion assets are in European financial institutions, only 20 billion remain in US-based banks. Meanwhile, Washington’s allies still question the legality of such a solution. Yes, they have already agreed to use the interest of frozen Russian investments in Ukraine, but they do not want to touch the underlying assets. Will President Trump convince them to do so?
“Event”: Do the police like Titanic? Commander’s “loud” farewell / Polsat News / Polsat News
