My India
Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri meets Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai
India’s latest diplomatic overtures to Afghanistan’s Taliban government signal a marked shift in how it views the geopolitical reality in the region.
This comes more than three years after India suffered a major strategic and diplomatic blow when Kabul fell to the Taliban.
Two decades of investment in Afghan democracy – through military training, scholarships and flagship projects like the construction of its new parliament – were quickly undone. The collapse also paved the way for greater influence from regional rivals, particularly Pakistan and China, eroding India’s strategic position and raising new security concerns.
However, last week marked a change. India’s top diplomat Vikram Misri met with the Taliban’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai – the highest level of engagement since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban have expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, calling it an “important regional and economic power.”
The discussions reportedly focused on expanding trade and exploiting Iran’s Chabahar port, which India developed to bypass Pakistan’s ports of Karachi and Gwadar.
What is the importance of this meeting? Delhi has now given Taliban leaders the de facto legitimacy they have sought from the international community since returning to power, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think tank, told me.
“The fact that this treatment comes from India, a country that has never had friendly relations with the Taliban, makes this all the more significant and is also a diplomatic triumph for the Taliban,” he says.
AFP
Days before talks between India and the Taliban, Pakistani airstrikes killed dozens of people in eastern Afghanistan.
Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, countries have taken varying approaches to the regime, balancing diplomatic engagement with concerns over human rights and security. China, for example, has gone far: it has actively engaged with the Taliban, focusing on security and economic interests, and even has an ambassador in the country.
No country has officially recognized the Taliban government, but up to 40 countries maintain some form of diplomatic or informal relations with it.
This is why experts like Jayant Prasad, former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, are more circumspect about India’s action.
Over the past three years, he says, India has maintained contact with the Taliban through a foreign service diplomat. India had closed its consulates in Afghanistan during the civil war in the 1990s and reopened them in 2002 after the war ended. “We didn’t want this hiatus to develop (again), so we wanted to engage. It’s just a step forward in the relationship,” he says.
India has “historical and civilizational ties” with Afghanistan, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament in 2023. India has invested more than $3 billion (£2.46 billion) in more than 500 projects across Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals and clinics. . He trained Afghan officers, awarded thousands of scholarships to students and built a new parliamentary building.
This reflects an enduring geopolitical reality. “Regardless of the nature of the regime in Kabul – monarchical, communist or Islamist – there has been a natural warmth between Delhi and Kabul,” noted the Indian Express newspaper.
Mr. Kugelman echoes that sentiment. “India has an important legacy as a donor of development and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, which has translated into goodwill from the Afghan public that Delhi is keen not to lose,” he says.
Interestingly, relations with Delhi appear to be improving amid growing tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan says the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) operates from sanctuaries in Afghanistan.
Last July, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that Pakistan would continue its attacks on Afghanistan as part of an operation to combat terrorism. Days before talks between India and the Taliban, Pakistani airstrikes killed dozens of people in eastern Afghanistan, according to the Afghan government. The Taliban government condemned the strikes as violations of its sovereignty.
AFP
Taliban in complete control of Afghanistan, experts say
It marks a sharp decline in relations since the fall of Kabul in 2021, when a senior Pakistani intelligence official was among the first foreign guests to meet with the Taliban regime. At the time, many saw the fall of Kabul as a strategic setback for India.
“While Pakistan is not the only factor behind India’s intensifying efforts with the Taliban, it is true that Delhi is achieving a big victory in its evergreen competition with Pakistan by moving closer to “a long-time critical Pakistani asset that has now turned against its former boss,” says Mr. Kugelman.
There are other reasons for this awareness. India aims to boost connectivity and access to Central Asia, which it cannot reach directly by land due to Pakistan’s denial of transit rights. Experts believe Afghanistan is key to this goal. One strategy is to collaborate with Iran on the development of the Chabahar port to improve access to Central Asia via Afghanistan.
“It is easier for Delhi to focus on the Afghan component of this plan by engaging more closely with the Taliban leadership, who fully support India’s plans as they would help strengthen the country’s trade and connectivity ties. “Afghanistan,” Mr. Kugelman said.
Getty Images
The inauguration ceremony of the first export convoy to India via Iran at Chabahar port in 2019
Clearly, India’s recent initiatives help advance its core interests in Taliban-led Afghanistan: preventing terrorist threats to India, deepening connectivity with Iran and Central Asia, maintaining public goodwill through aid and counter a struggling Pakistan.
What about the downsides?
“The main risk of strengthening ties with the Taliban lies with the Taliban itself. We are talking about a violent and brutal actor with close ties to international terrorist groups – including Pakistani – who have not done much “something to reform from what it was in the 1990s,” says Mr. Kugelman.
“India may hope that if it keeps the Taliban on its side, so to speak, the Taliban will be less likely to harm India or its interests. And that may be true. But ultimately, may “Can we really trust an actor like the Taliban? This will be the troubling question looming over India as it continues to cautiously pursue this complex relationship.”
Mr Prasad sees no downside to India’s current engagement in Afghanistan, despite concerns over the Taliban’s treatment of women. “The Taliban are completely in control. Letting them stew in their own juices will not help the Afghan people. Some engagement with the international community could put pressure on the government to improve its behavior.”
“Remember, the Taliban are hungry for recognition,” says Mr. Prasad. “They know this will only happen after internal reforms.” Like bringing women back into public life and restoring their rights to education, work and political participation.
