Here's a closer look at everything you need to know about this week's PGA Tour event in Castle Rock, Colorado, including the likely first-round leaders for the 2024 BMW Championship and three FRL bets for Thursday.
Castle Pines Golf Club will host a tour event for the first time since 2006 as the site of the BMW Championship. The Jack Nicklaus designed course is a par 72, 8,130 yard course. Given Colorado's elevation, this distance can be misleading. The adjusted course feels about 7,350 yards.
With that in mind, accuracy will play a much bigger role than distance this week, both because of the altitude and the number of hazards along the course.
Tony Sartori's BMW Championship Round 1 Leader Picks (FRL)
Tony Finau +2800 (Fanduel | 0.15 units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:30 PM ET
Tony Finau has consistently ranked high this season but has struggled to get past that barrier. Finau has made it to the weekend in 11 of his last 12 tournaments, finishing in the top 18 nine of those times.
All of that outstanding golf hasn't gone unrewarded, but that doesn't mean he hasn't started well: Finau is 14th in average first-round scoring on TOUR this season.
That statistic, combined with Finau's inability to finish this season, means I trust him more on Thursdays than Sundays right now. Finau has also generally performed well on Nicklaus courses, given that he has made the weekend in seven of his previous eight starts at Muirfield, with five top-13 finishes.
I think Muirfield will be a good comparison for this week's play, not only is it another Nicklaus designed course prized for precision, but this week's Director of Golf Courses and Grounds, Scott Pavalko, held the same position at Muirfield for eight years.
Finau is the player who held the sole first-round lead at Muirfield in 2020, so he could do so again this week at another Nicklaus-designed course.
What is QuickSlip?
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Corey Connors +3500 (FanDuel | 0.15 units)
Thursday Tee Time: 12:05 PM ET
In my opinion (and by most standards) Corey Connors is one of the top three ball-strikers on tour. Connors has gained true strokes on his approach in 25 consecutive tournaments and is in an elite class when it comes to iron and wedge play.
That alone is reason for optimism, but he's aiming to win every week. Connors hasn't missed the cut since last June, a streak that stretches to 28 tournaments.
Including the Olympics, he boasts 13 top-20 finishes in that span, but Connors has not been able to make the catch-up, so I would recommend betting on him in this week's FRL market.
Additionally, he ranks 12th in first-round scoring average on Tour this season.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically preload their bet slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Alex Noren +5500 (Fanduel | 0.15 units)
Thursday Tee Time: 11:30 AM ET
Alex Noren is one of my favorites in this category, and while I don't know if he's good enough to beat the likes of Scottie and Xander on Sunday, I believe he has the ability to win the opener.
Noren has generally started stronger than he finished, ranking fourth in Tour first-round scoring average, and has since qualified for the weekend in 20 of his last 23 tournaments, recording five top-10 finishes during that time.
The Swede is above the tour average in driving accuracy and has gained true strokes on his approach in 12 of his last 15 tournaments, so we expect his odds of winning to be 50-1 in this week's FRL market.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically preload their bet slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here is my complete betting card for the 2024 BMW Championship: You can hear more of my thoughts on this week’s tournament on the Links + Locks podcast.
Xander Schauffele Outright Winner (+600 on bet365) – 0.3 unitsAaron Rai Outright Winner (+4500 on FanDuel) – 0.3 unitsAdam Scott Outright Winner (+5500 on FanDuel) – 0.3 unitsShane Lowry Outright Winner (+7000 on FanDuel) – 0.3 unitsRobert MacIntyre Top 10 (+450 on BetRivers) – 0.24 unitsMax Greyserman Top 10 (+550 on FanDuel1) – 0.23 unitsTony Finau FRL (+3000 on FanDuel) – 0.15 unitsCorey Conners FRL (+3500 on FanDuel) – 0.15 unitsAlex Noren FRL (+5000 on FanDuel) – 0.15 units
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About the Author
Tony Sartori is a writer for The Action Network. Since graduating in 2022, he has written over 1,000 sports betting articles for various media outlets.
Follow Tony Sartori @tony_sartori on Twitter/X.
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