2024 BMW Championship Fourth Round DFS Picks
Purchased by: Brian Harman ($6,900)
You could look up and down this leaderboard for other names, but Brian Harman is the only golfer competing this week who made daily improvements in both tee shot and approach metrics.
The total puts the American in fourth place in ball strikes this week, and that's before taking into account that he was one of just four golfers to improve his ball strike strokes while performing below leaderboard expectations in all three rounds.
There may be more to Sahith Teegala and Herman's recent putting woes than meets the eye, as neither has finished inside the top 25 in the field over the past 24 rounds, but I wouldn't discount the fact that both were ranked in the top 20 of “promising putters” prior to the event.
Teegala has had his own issues with the flat stick, finishing an astounding 9.67 strokes ahead of the other competitors (4.94 strokes ahead of runner-up Viktor Hovlan), but Herman's flat nature means he's likely to explode tomorrow if he gets going early.
You get the discount we get for the golfer who is 18th on the leaderboard.
Other lower-tier players I would put in the pool: Denny McCarthy ($6,500), Chris Kirk ($6,400) and Si Woo Kim ($7,400).
All these names fit neatly into the premium options.
Fade: Akshay Bhatia ($8,200)
In Saturday's article, we briefly mentioned that Akshay Bhatia is the biggest blowout contender.
As expected, Bhatia finished with the third-worst total on Saturday with a four-over 76, but after losing strokes hitting the ball on all three days for a total of -5.59 shots, I'd argue there's still some buffer he might make up on Sunday.
The top performers on the leaderboard over the three days were:
Please note that this list excludes golfers ranked in the top 15 in projected score and in the top 15 in my head-to-head ratings, and while some of these names may underperform, I won't write off the prospects of those in form.
One of the most important things to take away from this list is that only Matthew Fitzpatrick is a likely player to play in DFS on Sunday. I'm going to be excluding most of the players on this list, so be careful if you want to exclude them from your consideration.
Who will win the BMW Championship in 2024?
I had a hard time finding value further down this board for two main reasons.
1) Players like Keegan Bradley and Adam Scott were ranked 1st and 3rd in expected points this week and are legitimate contenders. It is hard to rule out one of them winning the title.
2) Bookmakers drastically reduced the prices of Xander Schauffele and Wyndham Clark. That doesn't mean they couldn't find a way to win, but the prices were almost half what they should have been. That created a trickle-down effect across the board.
I'm going to stick with my pre-tournament prediction of Ludvig Aberg, because I don't see any value in trying to hedge that ticket, but I think either Aberg, Bradley or Scott will ultimately win.
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About the Author
Spencer has been a prominent golf personality for Action Network since joining the team in September 2022. Born and raised in Las Vegas, his background helped him become the gambler he is today. Spencer's work has been featured on countless websites outside of Action, including RotoBaller, GolfWRX, and WinDaily Sports.
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