The BMW Championship will be held at beautiful Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado. The top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will compete for a spot in the Tour Championship in Georgia. Learn about the playoff format. The top 50 players from last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship will compete in this week's BMW Championship. The top 30 players from the BMW Championship will compete for the FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship.
Scottie Scheffler holds a nearly 1,500-point lead over Xander Schauffele for the FedExCup title. Nick Dunlap had a strong performance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, finishing in a tie for fifth place and moving into the top 50 in the FedExCup standings, ensuring his season will continue. Tom Kim struggled late in the tournament, dropping out of the top 50 and ending his season sooner than he would have liked.
Of the players outside the top 30, the four with the best chances to qualify for the TOUR Championship are Tommy Fleetwood, Will Zalatoris, Austin Eckroth and Dunlap. Fleetwood has been strong this season and it's surprising he's only in 31st place this week. Zalatoris said before the Wyndham Championship that he wanted to finish the season on his own terms, but he showed steady improvement last week at the St. Jude Championship, finishing tied for 12th and gaining strokes across the board. Dunlap has had a storybook season with wins on the PGA TOUR as both an amateur and a professional.
Castle Pines Golf Club was the host course for The International from 1986 to 2006. Only one golfer in the field has played on the course, Adam Scott, but that was back in 2000 when he was a rookie on the PGA Tour.
Lacking actual data, I have had to build more of a model around recent form and how the golf course is playing. The course has been rainy this month with a chance of showers on Thursday and Friday, clearing up by the weekend. I am building my model around strokes gained off the tee, approach strokes gained over the last 12 rounds, scores on par 72s, scores on par 5s, and birdies or better.
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Course information
Course: Castle Pines Golf Club — Castle Rock, Colorado
Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Par: 72
Distance: 8,130 yards
Average green size: 5,600 square feet
What makes it special: Castle Pines Golf Club was meant to be the Augusta National of the West when construction began in 1979 and was completed in 1981. When players tee off on Thursday, Castle Pines will officially be the longest golf course to host the PGA Tour. With an elevation of over 6,000 feet above sea level, players and caddies will have to do some math to determine the appropriate distance. Players such as Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark, who have experience playing at higher elevations, will have a slight advantage this week. The golf course starts with a 649-yard par 5 that is only about 590 yards in actual distance, so most players can reach it in two strokes. The golf course has many doglegs and water is involved throughout. Players will need to be careful with their tee shot positioning to avoid being blocked by hitting into a water-protected green.
Recent winners: 2023 Viktor Hovland, 2022 Patrick Cantlay, 2021 Patrick Cantlay, 2020 Jon Rahm, 2019 Justin Thomas, 2018 Keegan Bradley, 2017 Marc Leishman, 2016 Dustin Johnson, 2015 Jason Day, 2014 Billy Horschel
2024 BMW Championship Odds
All odds are taken from BetMGM.
Betting Cards
Xander Schauffele (+600) is neck and neck with Schauffele in nearly every statistical category this week. Schauffele has a big advantage on the greens, gaining nearly a stroke over the field every round. While +600 odds are short, they're nearly double Schauffler's current odds and shouldn't be that far behind at this point. Xander came back to gain over 5.6 strokes over the field at the St. Jude Championship on Sunday and threatened the leaders.
Viktor Hovlan (+1800) gained over 8.5 strokes in ball striking at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and over 3 strokes with his putter this week. He'll need to get on a similar roll with his irons to make up for his poor play around the greens. Hovlan was strong in last year's playoffs and will look to do the same this week as he defends his BMW Championship title.
Wyndham Clark (+3000) has been a different golfer since his first round poor showing at the Olympics, where he lost over five strokes to the field, but then went on to win over the field by over 13 strokes over the next three days. He is from Denver and has plenty of experience playing at altitude and on this course.
Sam Burns (+3500) is tweaking his irons, which is bad news for the rest of the field. Burns has the ability and belief to do anything around and on the greens. Burns has gained more than two strokes on his approach in three consecutive tournaments and has gained more than 14 strokes combined putting in his last three tournaments. He probably would have won last week had he not made a big mistake off the tee. If he wants to capitalize on his solid putting form, that will need to change this week.
DFS Play
Xander Schauffele ($11,100) See above.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500) had a dramatic win on Sunday after losing a big lead late in the round. Matsuyama has been outstanding with his ball striking and on the greens, gaining a total of 13+ strokes in putting over the past two weeks. He had a downturn around the greens over the weekend, losing over three strokes to other players, but this should be treated as a bit of an anomaly.
Viktor Hovland ($10,400) See above.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,800) is a two-time BMW Championship winner who always seems to do better in the playoffs. Cantlay has won 18 strokes off the ball in his last four tournaments combined, gained over three strokes off the tee at the St. Jude Championship, and has recently shown more confidence with his driver.
Tony Finau ($9,700) is from Utah and has played many rounds at high altitude. His approach game and short game have been excellent for some time, but accuracy off the tee has been a challenge for him.
Sam Burns ($9,400) see above.
Wyndham Clark ($9,200) See above.
Aaron Rye ($8,600) finished T16 last week despite still feeling a bit of a rush from winning the Wyndham Championship. Rye finished T16 last week despite gaining over 7.8 strokes on his approach and losing over 4 strokes with the putter. I'm not a big fan of the 8K range and I almost always settle for Rye on this range.
Adam Scott ($8,300) has won 1.9 strokes or more off his tee shots in three consecutive tournaments and 2.3 strokes or more off his short game in each of his last five golf tournaments. After losing more than four strokes to other players on approach shots in the first two rounds of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he seems to have learned to use his irons better. In the remaining rounds, he won more than 2.5 strokes on approach shots.
Davis Thompson ($7,900) moved into T33rd place at the St. Jude Championship after gaining four more strokes in ball striking on Sunday. Thompson thinks he might be starting to tire a bit late in the season, so he plans to play cautiously this week.
Robert McIntyre ($7,600) has two wins this season, finishing seventh at the St. Jude Championship with a short game score of over 7.2 strokes.
Taylor Pendris ($7,300) has won 12.8 strokes or better on approach shots in his last three golf tournaments. He struggled a bit with his driver at the St. Jude Championship, but I'm not too worried. Pendris is having a great season, has a lot of experience, and finished 8th at the 2022 BMW Championship.
Nick Dunlap ($6,900) finished tied for fifth at last week's St. Jude Championship after gaining 6.2 strokes or more in ball striking and 3 strokes or more in putting. Dunlap is a choppy player and we might see one of his best days here.
Will Zalatoris ($6,800) is slowly starting to get his ball-striking back. He struggled with his tee shots and approaches on Sunday and looked far from his best, but he hasn't been at his best in a while so I think we can forgive him. Zalatoris was able to gain strokes overall while finishing T12th. He'll need to play even better this week to get into the top 30 and qualify for his first Tour Championship.
Eric Cole ($6,500) lost more than four strokes off the tee at the St. Jude Championship but managed to finish in a tie for 18th thanks to great approach play and a good short game.
Austin Eckroth ($6,300) was one of the few players to gain strokes overall at the Wyndham and St. Jude Championships, gaining more than two strokes by hitting the ball better in the final round and finishing T18.
One time only
Each week we will select in reverse order of rank. No duplicate selections can be made in the same week. Refer to this spreadsheet to track who we've selected.
Ranking
Dennis Esser: $10,608,478
Brody Miller: $9,272,969.16
Hugh Kellenberger: $8,554,127.63
Kellenberger: My only chance here is to pick a player who can realistically lift a new trophy on Sunday night, so I'm going to err on the side of caution and go with Viktor Hovland. The Norwegian has a chance to salvage a lost season in the next two weeks, and he might do it. I'm not sure if I believe it or am trying to convince myself, but either way, I'm recommending him.
Miller: So I unintentionally saved Collin Morikawa for this week, and now the top four or five players in the world are playing for huge amounts of money. Morikawa is having a great season, but he doesn't seem to have a win. So maybe if I win this big-money event, he can give me the win.
Esser: The BMW Championship is our last golf tournament of one-off contests. I hope to see Viktor Hovlan play as we saw him at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. His ball-striking is back to his best and his putter has covered his issues around the greens… If Hugh hadn't picked Hovlan before me, I would have said: With Hovlan out, I was left with no choice but to choose between Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau. I'd pick Wyndham Clark, because Finau hasn't been very accurate with his driver lately, which could be his downfall here.
(Photo of Viktor Hovland by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
