And then we had 50.
With the Tour Championship just around the corner, our betting analyst staff is already making predictions for the BMW Championship. Only 30 will advance to Atlanta next week, and only one will delight bettors this week.
Let's take a look at the full staff bets.
2024 BMW Championship Picks
I sit here on Monday morning, anxious about the possibility of Xander Schauffele winning this title at odds of under 7-1. There have been two other notable events this season where the American outperformed my model (the PGA Championship and the British Open). But the difference between those two events and this week's comes down to price. When you add up exposure for value, there's a big difference between 15-1 and 6-1.
Given my concerns about Schauffele winning, I'm going to play very low-risk this weekend on a course never played on the PGA Tour, though I will bet on 27-year-old Collin Morikawa after his odds improved after he disappointed the betting and DFS community at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Morikawa lost a whopping 4.7 shots in ball-striking on his way to his worst finish on the leaderboard since the first week of April, and while the industry as a whole has been talking about his multiple close calls and recent short game improvements that have him in contention to win, consider these numbers a grab for a golfer whose odds would have been roughly 10-1 had he performed better at the start of the playoff.
As we always say, in the long run only value measured in numbers matters, so don't overreact to one poor showing if it means the bookmakers will increase his price in the process.
It's time for Aberg to pull himself together and get a big win to kick-start his career.
The young Swede wasn't at his best last week in Memphis, but the more you look at the numbers the more you see that a lot of his issues come from the area of his short game. I'm glad Aberg has hit the ball well enough this week because I know his short game can bounce back quickly.
I also think we'll see some scores of 20 under par or better this week, and Aberg has done really well in those tournaments.
It's only a matter of time before this star player scores a big win, and this is the perfect place to do it. While the rest of the tour is accustomed to the same courses, this player has seen new golf courses for the past two years, giving him an advantage in preparation for this week.
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The Tour returns to Castle Pines Golf Club for the first time since 2006. The course is in the Denver area and is a whopping 8,130 yards long.
However, that distance can be misleading due to the elevation, playing out at about 7,350 yards. With that in mind, accuracy will play a much bigger role than distance this week due to both the elevation and the number of obstacles along the course.
Xander Schauffele has been one of the most well-rounded golfers to emerge from the past few months, finishing in the top 15 in eight consecutive tournaments, winning two major championships during that time, as well as finishing runner-up at the Wells Fargo Championship and last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Schauffele has been better than the field average on tee shots in each of his last three tournaments, including the Olympic Games, and I expect that success to continue on this Jack Nicklaus-designed course. With seven consecutive top 25 finishes at Muirfield, it's clear that he likes Nicklaus courses.
Scheffler and Schauffele are obviously heavy favorites this week, but despite their recent strong performances, I'm not sure which one is worth the top pick. Instead, I'm going to bet on who I think would be the third favorite to win, all odds being equal. Considering he's rated the seventh favorite by most sportsbooks this week, he has some value.
Cantlay's history in the FedEx Playoffs is well-documented at this point, including winning the BMW Championship in both 2022 and 2023, but there's a significant statistical reason to buy Cantlay in Colorado this week.
Cantlay ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: High Altitude Courses over the last 30 rounds and is also second to Scheffler in Strokes Gained on Nicklaus-designed courses.
Cantlay is always at his best late in the PGA Tour season, and after a slow start on Thursday, he played three consecutive rounds to finish tied for ninth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Returning to the playoffs, Cantlay ranks third overall in strokes gained through the last 36 FedEx Cup playoff rounds. And most importantly, Cantlay's value has increased this week compared to other elite players.
Pick: Patrick Cantlay +2000
About the Author
The Action Network is a team of experienced sports betting experts specialising in a wide range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream sports such as cricket and darts. The staff includes renowned analysts such as Sean Koerner and Stuckey, who are known for their accurate predictions and in-depth knowledge of sports. The team is dedicated to providing expert analysis and the best daily bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed on all major sports.
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