On August 1, we released the 2024 College Football Betting Guide for VSiN subscribers. Along with a nifty PDF version that subscribers can get right here, we have posted the content of that publication to VSiN.com. This is the landing page for all of the links to the College Football Betting Guide content.
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Steve Makinen’s Stability Scores, Recruiting Rankings, and Top 40 College Football Betting Trends
Matt Youmans’ Preseason Top 25
Adam Burke on the New College Football Head Coaches, Home-Field Advantage, and How to Create a Power Ratings Model
Zachary Cohen on the Heisman Trophy
ACC (by Adam Burke)
The Atlantic Coast Conference should probably have tried to swap names with the American Athletic Conference. The ACC now spans more of the country than the AAC with the inclusion of SMU, Cal, and Stanford to the conference this season. Clemson and Florida State are in talks to leave the conference and potentially follow in the footsteps of Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12, but they will not only be members of the ACC this season, they are among the favorites.
The Seminoles have a Sunshine State-sized chip on their shoulders after getting left out of the College Football Playoff last year because of Jordan Travis’ injury, despite a perfect record in the regular season and a win in the ACC Title Game over Louisville. Virtually everybody opted out of the Orange Bowl and the season ended with a dismal and depressing 63-3 loss to Georgia.
Mike Norvell’s crew is ready to run it back with a slew of new recruits and transfers. Dabo Swinney’s crew is hoping to take a step forward without the help of transfers. The annual hype of Miami and the renewed hopes for Louisville under Jeff Brohm could stand in the way of FSU and Clemson, as the conference has eliminated divisions with 17 teams in the league.
NC State added Coastal Carolina legend Grayson McCall to the roster in hopes of spoiling the party and “Enter Sandman” in Blacksburg took on a different feel last year as Virginia Tech is back on the map. The only newbie with a chance to make noise is SMU. The ACC can best be described as having a lot of good teams, but has limited potential for great teams.
Big 12 (by Jonathan Von Tobel)
Ask any college football handicapper which conference is the most wide-open and almost every one of them will likely say the Big 12. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah all join from the Pac-12 this season to form a 16-team league that is rife with parity.
Despite playing its first year in the conference, Utah is the preseason favorite to win the championship game (+320). Arizona (+1000) – now led by former San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan – brings back 15 starters. Among that returning production is quarterback Noah Fifita, who completed 72% of his passes and threw 25 touchdowns in nine starts last season while leading the Wildcats to a 10-3 SU/11-2 ATS record. Not much is expected of Colorado (+3000) or Arizona State (+10000), but the Buffaloes are exciting, and they arguably have the best signal-caller in the conference in Shedeur Sanders.
Texas and Oklahoma are gone, but there are some traditional Big 12 powers expected to compete for a championship this season.
The one with the most hype is Kansas State (+380). Chris Klieman’s squad brings back just 12 starters—only four on defense—but sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson has bettors and fans alike excited about the Wildcats’ potential.
Oklahoma State (+750) has 19 starters returning from a team which won 10 games and finished as the runner-up to Texas in the conference last season.
UCF (+900) and Kansas (+900) have high-end quarterback talent in KJ Jefferson and Jalon Daniels, respectively, and both programs should have elite offenses.
Iowa State (+1000) also brings back 19 starters from last season, and sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht is primed to make another leap.
Do not sleep on any one of Texas Tech (+1400), West Virginia (+1800) or TCU (+1800) either, all of which have eight or more starters coming back on at least one side of the ball.
For years the Big 12 has been a chaotic conference which has turned out some dramatic results down the stretch of conference play. This season is shaping up to be no different, with about 10 teams being able to make a realistic case for a conference championship.
Big Ten (by Matt Youmans)
It stretches from Los Angeles to Chicago and nearly to New York. It can claim the reigning national champion and two of the nation’s top three teams in the preseason. It has an impressive amount of money and power. The Big Ten is back, bigger and better than ever. On the heels of Michigan’s 15-0 championship run, which ended the conference’s eight-year slump, Ohio State and Oregon are title contenders in 2024.
It’s a year of big changes. Jim Harbaugh, the architect of the Wolverines’ perfect season, has departed to coach in the NFL. Expansion into the wild west has arrived, with four marquee programs — USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington — ditching the Pac-12 to help form an 18-team superpower conference to rival the SEC. The future of college football is here, and the outlook is especially bright for the Big Ten.
With Harbaugh out of the way, the path appears cleared for the Buckeyes to lead the way. Ryan Day, who has lost three in a row to Michigan, is under pressure to coach Ohio State to its first national title since 2014. Day has a loaded roster and he recruited a high-profile head coach, Chip Kelly from UCLA, to become the Buckeyes’ offensive coordinator. But the Ducks have at least two things the Buckeyes do not — the conference’s top quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, and the most important home game on the schedule, against Ohio State in October.
The league no longer has East and West divisions (sorry, Iowa). It also introduces five new coaches, including Michigan’s Sherrone Moore and Jedd Fisch of Washington, which lost the national title game.
Is Penn State primed to finally get over the hump? Where does Wisconsin fit into the puzzle? Is Nebraska returning to relevance? The biggest question is this: Will the Big Ten produce back-to-back national champions?
SEC (by Zachary Cohen)
This will be a very interesting year in the SEC. Last season, Alabama ended up winning the conference and going to the College Football Playoff, but legendary head coach Nick Saban retired after the year. He was replaced by Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer, who many believe is a top-five coach in the nation. However, Kirby Smart and Georgia are the betting favorites to win the SEC in 2024.
When looking at Georgia’s roster, it isn’t hard to figure out why people love the Bulldogs. They’re stacked on both sides of the ball. However, like most of the teams in the SEC, Georgia has a very difficult schedule. So, even if the Dawgs are the most talented team in the conference — and possibly the nation — we could see a lot of squads hovering right around the 10-win mark in 2024.
Texas, which is new to the SEC in 2024, is one of the teams that will challenge Georgia for the crown. The Longhorns have a lot of talent back from a team that made the College Football Playoff last year. Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M will also have opportunities to steal that top spot. The Rebels are as good as any team in the country offensively. The Crimson Tide are still loaded with talent. LSU is in Year 3 under Brian Kelly and hoping to break through. And the Aggies hired Mike Elko to straighten out a talented roster. Elko worked some magic for Duke and could do special things in College Station.
Of course, Tennessee and Missouri also need to be taken seriously, and Oklahoma is hoping to make a splash in its new conference. There’s also Auburn, Florida and Arkansas, who are all rebuilding and looking to get back to the glory days.
AAC (by Adam Burke)
The American Athletic Conference looked a lot different last season with realignment, as Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA all made the move from Conference USA to the AAC. There are additional changes this year, as conference champion SMU is now a member of the ACC and Army has joined the conference as a football-only member.
It will be interesting to see how those six teams evolve. UTSA was one loss away from playing in the AAC Title Game, but four of the other five finished with losing records in conference play. With unbeaten SMU gone and Tulane going through some transition with Willie Fritz now at Houston, the door might open a crack for one of the old C-USA squads to step up and have an impact.
Only four teams had winning conference records last season and those teams combined to go 29-3. Three teams finished .500 at 4-4 and seven teams went 3-5 or worse, so we had one well-defined tier and a bunch of mediocre to bad teams the rest of the way.
Interestingly, with 30 new head coaches in college football this season, the only replacement here is Jon Sumrall for a Tulane team that went 11-3, so those bad teams didn’t really make any changes with their leadership. Most Group of Five teams are struggling to keep their top talent nowadays, so it could be a long year for those at the bottom of the conference again.
Conference USA (by Tyler Shoemaker)
College football season is nearly upon us, so it is time to take a dive into Conference USA, which has become the FCS transition league over the last couple of years. Jacksonville State and Sam Houston joined the league last year and Kennesaw State joined this year to make 134 FBS teams (Delaware is waiting for next year to make 135), as the conference lost several members from a few years ago to the AAC and Sun Belt.
Conference champion Liberty returns as the heavy favorite to repeat with Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky in the mix, followed by a slew of pretty bad teams who all are rated two touchdowns below FBS average, according to the T Shoe Index. New Mexico State and UTEP are breaking in new offensive-minded head coaches in Tony Sanchez and Scotty Walden, respectively, while Middle Tennessee went the defensive route with former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason.
Conference players to keep an eye out for are Liberty QB Kaidon Salter, transfer QB TJ Finley of Western Kentucky, RB Quinton Cooley of Liberty (whom EA Sports deemed a top 100 player in America), and DE Maurice Westmoreland of UTEP. Top transfers this year include Auburn WR transfer Omari Kelly (Middle Tennessee), Arizona State safety Josiah Cox (New Mexico State) and Alabama State WR Kisean Johnson (Western Kentucky).
The two biggest questions facing this conference this year are 1. Can anyone truly challenge Liberty for the conference title? 2. Can Liberty remain unscathed through a weak schedule to claim a College Football Playoff spot?
FBS Independents (by Tim Murray)
The number of independent teams continues to dwindle. In 2022, there were seven independent teams, but BYU (Big 12), Liberty (C-USA), and New Mexico St. (C-USA) all joined conferences in 2023. Army joins the American Athletic Conference in 2024, filling the void left by SMU. UMass will head to the MAC in 2025, leaving just a pair of independent teams after this season.
Notre Dame continues its life as an independent and recently renewed its television deal with NBC. Will the Irish ever join a conference? Notre Dame Athletic Director Pete Bevacqua told ESPN “…I think our position as being independent in football quite frankly is certainly more unique than ever, but also more valuable than ever.” There could come a day when Notre Dame’s hand is forced to join a conference but, as of now, the Irish have a clear path to the College Football Playoff this year. The schedule is quite favorable and if the Irish beat Texas A&M in Week 1, they will become an overwhelming favorite to reach the CFP (Notre Dame is currently -165 to make the CFP).
UConn basketball won another national championship this spring, but the football program will have slightly less lofty goals. If Jim Mora’s squad reaches a bowl game for the second time in three years, that should be looked at as a massive accomplishment.
UMass joining the MAC next year should be helpful for the football program. Coming off its best season since 2018, the Minutemen play five MAC teams and three SEC teams this year. UMass will host nationally ranked Missouri on Oct. 12, but don’t expect UMass to be very competitive when the reigning Cotton Bowl champs come to Amherst. If the Minutemen can upset a couple of their future conference foes this season, they could eclipse last year’s win total.
MAC (by Wes Reynolds)
Most college football conferences will be undergoing a fair number of transformations this year, but the MAC is not one of them. In fact, the conference will add a program next season, as the UMass Minutemen become the 13th member. The only change in the conference from last season is a new coach in Buffalo as former Ball State coach Pete Lembo takes over the Bulls program in place of Maurice Linguist, who left to take a co-defensive coordinator position at Alabama.
Another thing that unfortunately stays the same in the MAC is that its member football programs continue to get picked apart in the transfer portal. Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke is now at Indiana and Toledo QB Dequan Finn is heading to Baylor.
One change that is in effect is that for the first time since 1996, there will be no East and West divisions in the MAC.
Miami (Ohio) is the conference favorite after winning the conference title last season and senior QB Brett Gabbert is coming back healthy. Toledo, who lost to the RedHawks in that title game, only brings back eight starters but the Rockets usually are one of the more talented groups in the conference.
Behind the two conference championship game participants lurk Northern Illinois, widely regarded as the most physical team in the conference, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, and Ohio.
Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, and Ball State will be fighting for bowl eligibility while Akron, Buffalo, and Kent State are still early in the process of big-time rebuilding projects.
Mountain West + Pac-2 (by Jonathan Von Tobel)
Change is the theme for the Mountain West in 2024.
Seven new head coaches joined the conference in the offseason. Long-tenured coaches Jeff Tedford and Craig Bohl are gone. New Mexico, San Diego State, Nevada, San Jose State and Utah State all replaced their previous coaches. New systems and coaching tendencies will need to be learned by bettors used to following the conference.
There are also some new members. Kind of.
Oregon State and Washington State – left standing when the music stopped playing during conference realignment – entered into a scheduling agreement with the conference. The Pac-2 programs will play a “conference schedule” of Mountain West opponents (eight games), but none will count toward the conference standings and neither are eligible for a Mountain West title.
Despite all of these changes, the conference is set up for a strong year.
Boise State – the favorite to win the championship game – is expected by many to compete for the Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff. Fresno State has the best quarterback in the conference – Mikey Keene – and should be in contention for the title despite Tedford’s departure. UNLV – the best ATS team in the Mountain West last season – returns quite a bit of production from a team that lost in the Mountain West championship game.
The league might be different in many facets, but the Mountain West still figures to be one of the most entertaining conferences in the country.
Sun Belt (by Adam Burke)
There are 10 conferences (plus Independents) in college football and the Sun Belt is the only conference still using divisions. The 14 teams in the league are grouped East and West and the East Division has been substantially deeper than the West Division. That may not be the case to the same degree this season.
Teams like Texas State and Arkansas State really showed signs of life last season to bolster the profile of the West, but a division with Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, and James Madison still looks to be the stronger side. But, unlike other conferences, it is solely about winning your division and trying to punch a ticket to the conference championship game.
The expanded playoff is unlikely to have any bearing on the Sun Belt this season, as it seems like a long shot that any of these teams will be ranked higher than other Group of Five programs, but it is shaping up to be another interesting year in what I lovingly refer to as the “Fun Belt”.
With 30 new head coaches in college football, every conference is represented and Georgia State (Dell McGee), James Madison (Bob Chesney), Louisiana-Monroe (Bryant Vincent), South Alabama (Major Applewhite), and Troy (Gerad Parker) are the ones for the Sun Belt as we head into the 2024 season.
Even though the East has been deeper than the West, Troy is the reigning two-time champion and Louisiana won in 2021. We’ll never know what would have happened in 2020 due to Coastal Carolina’s COVID issues, but App State is the only winner from the East and the conference has only had three different title game winners since the championship game’s inception in 2018.
Will somebody new join the party this year?
East Division
West Division
