FBS college football has finally begun, and for the teams in the Group of Five, the battle to win their respective leagues and advance to the College Football Playoff will be exciting to watch.
But first, these teams must get through the regular season. Here are some spread and over/under predictions for this week's Group of Five teams.
Upset of the week: Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin predictions
I expect Western Michigan to win and cover the spread at +24.5, and I expect the game to have a total score of over 56.5.
There are bound to be upsets of G5 teams against Power Four teams every season, and I think this could be one of them.
I think Western Michigan is well-suited to compete against a team like Wisconsin. WMU's offensive line is loaded with talent, with Group of Five Preseason All-Americans Jacob Gideon and Addison West up front. They should pave the way for running back Jaylen Buckley (also a Group of Five Preseason All-American). A solid run game will help WMU control the clock and take control of the game.
The question will be how WMU will counter Wisconsin's offense, but if the Broncos can force a few turnovers, this game could be an upset.
Akron vs. Ohio State Prediction
I predict Ohio State to win and cover the spread at -50.5, and I also predict the total points for the game to be over 58.5.
Akron has a tough non-conference schedule coming up this year with games against Ohio State, Rutgers and South Carolina all on the road, but this game could be Akron's toughest this year.
There's little reason to believe Ohio State won't cruise through this one — perhaps the Buckeyes will struggle to get a foothold early on as it's their first game of the year — but with an offense led by quarterback Will Howard and running back Quinsion Judkins, that's not going to happen.
In this game, Ohio State might have a 40-point lead at halftime, and the Buckeyes might score 59 points on their own.
Kent State vs. Pittsburgh Predictions
I predict Pittsburgh to win and cover the spread at -23.5, and I also predict the game's point total to be over 55.5.
Kent State was last in the MAC in terms of scoring defense last season, allowing just 34.6 points per game, and while the Golden Flashes can get better defensively now, they will need to make dramatic improvements over the offseason to keep up with Pittsburgh in this game.
But there's a chance Kent State will score in this matchup. Led by All-MAC wide receivers Chrishon McCray and Luke Floria, the Golden Flashes return nine starters on offense in 2023.
This continuity should make for some interesting Week 1 matches.
FAU vs. Michigan State Predictions
I predict Michigan State will win, but FAU will cover the spread at +13.5, and I also predict the game will have a total score of under 45.5.
I expect FAU to give the Spartans a tough fight in this matchup, and I think the Owls defense in particular is prepared for this matchup.
FAU has been average defensively compared to other teams in the AAC, allowing just 25.5 points and 397 yards per game, but the team returns eight starters on defense and FAU should be strong, especially up front, after emphasizing that area in the transfer portal.
FAU's new quarterback, Cam Fancher, transferred from Marshall after completing 65% of his passes for 2,162 yards, 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while rushing for 273 yards and four touchdowns in 10 games last season. He should help keep this game close going into the fourth quarter.
The Spartans may win by double digits, but I think FAU will keep this game within a couple of possessions.
Temple vs. Oklahoma predictions
I predict Oklahoma to win and cover the spread at +42.5, and I also predict the game's total points to be over 59.5.
Is this Oklahoma team more talented than Temple? Absolutely. And I think that will become clear soon. Led by quarterback Jackson Arnold, I don't think Oklahoma will have any problem scoring in this matchup.
Temple's rushing attack may be Oklahoma's strength offensively as they have yet to name a starting quarterback, but it will be interesting to see how it fare against an Oklahoma team led by former Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables.
But even if the Owls do gain some momentum on the ground, they'll need the pass to keep up with this Sooners offense. Temple also didn't stand out defensively last season, allowing just 35.7 points per game.
The Owls need to show they have improved offensively or the game will get ugly.
Boise State vs Georgia Southern Predictions
I predict Boise State to win and cover the spread at -12.5, and I also predict the game will have a total score of under 56.5.
I'm not sure if Madsen will ultimately be the right choice for Boise State, and he and Nelson may end up taking the field at different points this season, but I'm very confident in the rest of the Broncos' roster.
Offensively, Boise State has last year's Group of 5 Offensive Player of the Year Ashton Jeanty and a strong running game that will undoubtedly help Madsen. Defensively, the Broncos have a host of stars on the offensive line, including defensive lineman Ahmed Hassanein, linebacker Andrew Simpson and cornerback Amarion McCoy.
Boise State was considered a favorite to make the College Football Playoff, especially when Nelson decided to transfer, but I don't think that will change my opinion of this team much because they have such outstanding players. If Boise State can get the quarterback position right, they have no weaknesses.
Now, I believe Georgia Southern University has talent as well. The Eagles will be fun to watch with running back Jaylen White and wide receiver Darwin Burgess Jr. on the offensive line, as well as linebacker Marquis Watson-Trent and defensive lineman Justin Rose on the offensive line.
But, with that being said, I think Boise State is two touchdowns better than Georgia Southern, even on the road.
Colorado State vs. Texas State Predictions
I predict Texas will win, but Colorado State will cover the spread at +32.5, and I also predict the game will have a total score of over 60.5.
I am well aware of how good a Texas team will be this year, led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, but I think a lot of people are underestimating Colorado State this season.
Offensively, the Rams have the ability to score in large numbers with wide receiver Torrey Horton, and CSU's defense should also be strong with safety Jack Howell as one of its leaders.
Will CSU beat Texas? I don't think so. But I can imagine the Rams will be nasty and won't let this one slip away until the second half.
New Mexico vs Arizona Predictions
I predict Arizona to win and cover the spread at -31.5, and I also predict the game's total points to be over 58.5.
Yes, I expect Arizona to win by a large margin, but I think New Mexico will perform better than they did last year with Bronco Mendenhall as the Lobos' head coach. Montana State is not a bad team in any division, and New Mexico could have a solid offense with Devon Dampier at quarterback.
Still, this Arizona team looks like one of the best in the Big 12. I think the Wildcats will score a lot of points early on to win.
Fresno State vs. Michigan Predictions
I predict Michigan will win, but Fresno State will cover the spread at +21, and I also predict the total points for the game will be over 45.5.
Michigan will likely be one of the top teams in the FBS again and have a good chance to make the College Football Playoff, but with everything that's happened this offseason, would it really be a surprise if the Wolverines stumble a bit in their season opener?
Let's also not forget that Fresno State was a pretty solid team in the Mountain West in 2023. Of course, Jeff Tedford is gone, but I expect interim head coach Tim Skipper, who played at Fresno State and knows the program well, to keep the momentum going.
The Bulldogs have a star-studded offense and defense in quarterback Mikey Keene, running back Malik Sherrod and defensive lineman Debo Bridges, and I think that will be enough to help Fresno State limit the lead to 17 points by the end of the game.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama Predictions
I predict Alabama will win and cover the spread at -31.5, and I also predict the game's total points to be over 59.5.
I don't think Alabama, led by quarterback Jalen Milroe, will have much trouble against WKU's defense — Nick Saban is gone, but it's still Alabama — and with the season opener at home, I expect the Crimson Tide to start the year with plenty of energy and prove they have what it takes to be one of the best teams in college football.
But I also think WKU can score at times, I think TJ Finley will be an excellent quarterback for the Hilltoppers and I look for him to help put together some scoring drives.
But I think Alabama will win by at least 35 points.
JMU vs. Charlotte predictions
I predict JMU will win, but Charlotte will cover the spread at +9.5, and I also predict the game will have a total score of under 48 points.
For reasons mentioned above, it's hard to say exactly what these teams will be like until they actually line up on the field, but I'm leaning toward JMU because I believe Chesney would be a good coach at the FBS level, and I also think the Dukes would be a top-10 Group of 5 team even if they're not as good as they have been the past two years.
Charlotte went 3-9 last year and may see improvement this year, but it remains to be seen whether the 49ers can overcome all of their injuries for this matchup.
Both teams will be trying to overcome some obstacles so I don’t expect it to be a high scoring game, but I do expect JMU to win by a touchdown.
Boise State vs Georgia Southern Predictions
I predict Boise State to win and cover the spread at -12.5, and I also predict the game will have a total score of under 56.5.
I'm not sure if Madsen will ultimately be the right choice for Boise State, and he and Nelson may end up taking the field at different points this season, but I'm very confident in the rest of the Broncos' roster.
Offensively, Boise State has last year's Group of 5 Offensive Player of the Year Ashton Jeanty and a strong running game that will undoubtedly help Madsen. Defensively, the Broncos have a host of stars on the offensive line, including defensive lineman Ahmed Hassanein, linebacker Andrew Simpson and cornerback Amarion McCoy.
Boise State was considered a favorite to make the College Football Playoff, especially when Nelson decided to transfer, but I don't think that will change my opinion of this team much because they have such outstanding players. If Boise State can get the quarterback position right, they have no weaknesses.
Now, I believe Georgia Southern University has talent as well. The Eagles will be fun to watch with running back Jaylen White and wide receiver Darwin Burgess Jr. on the offensive line, as well as linebacker Marquis Watson-Trent and defensive lineman Justin Rose on the offensive line.
But, with that being said, I think Boise State is two touchdowns better than Georgia Southern, even on the road.
