The NFL season is finally upon us, which means it’s time to bet on some football!
One of the most popular offseason football betting markets involves Over/Under win totals.
Fortunately for you bettors out there, our FOX Sports gambling crew analyzed the numbers and made picks for every team in the league.
So if you are looking to get some win total bets down, we have you covered.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica, Sam “Sammy P” Panayotovich, Geoff Schwartz, Jason “JMAC” McIntyre, Patrick Everson and Will Hill went to work.
Let’s dive into all of their best win total bets for the upcoming season.
AFC NORTH
The Bear
Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under: 10.5
Are we sure Derrick Henry is a big upgrade at running back? He’s got a lot of miles on him.
Will Lamar have another injury-free season? Can he play at an MVP level while missing three starters from one of the best offensive lines in the league now that Morgan Moses, Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson are gone?
And, Patrick Queen and Ronald Darby departed from the defense, as did DC Mike MacDonald.
These are just some reasons I’m pumping the breaks a little when it comes to Baltimore futures.
The AFC North is the toughest division in football and 10 wins aren’t guaranteed. This is a schedule that has four games with the Bengals and Browns, along with a non-division slate featuring the Chiefs, Cowboys, Bills and Eagles. Asking for 11 wins seems like an awful lot.
PICK: Ravens Under 10.5 games
PICK: Ravens to miss playoffs (+230)
Patrick Everson
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under: 10.5
Last year, Joe Burrow suffered a wrist injury in Week 11 and missed the rest of the season. It won’t be easy to reach this number for Cincy this upcoming year, but with a healthy Burrow, the Bengals stand a chance to return to the form that got them to the Super Bowl two seasons ago.
Sharp NFL bettor Randy McKay likes Cincinnati a lot this season, even making a Super Bowl wager on Burrow & Co. “I played the Bengals at +1400 to win it all, so I’m high on them in the AFC,” he explained.
McKay also plans to play the Bengals Over 10.5 wins, too, but he’s shopping for the best odds on that market. At the moment, Circa Sports and Caesars Sports have the best number, with Over 10.5 at -110.
I’ll ride with McKay on this one.
PICK: Bengals Over 10.5 games
Geoff Schwartz
Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 8.5
Cleveland has one of the best offensive line-defensive line combinations in the NFL, plus plenty of talent up and down the roster.
Deshaun Watson was traded to Cleveland before the 2022 season and has only played in 12 games since then. For too many reasons to list, he’s not been particularly crisp. But if Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski can pull even average play out of Watson, this Browns team will soar over this win total.
With their roster and potential for success with better quarterback play, the Browns to win the AFC North is another wager worth sprinkling a few bucks on.
PICK: Browns Over 8.5 games
Sammy P
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under: 8.5
I know, I know. You don’t fade Mike Tomlin in the regular season. We all know the numbers and history.
Thing is, Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson both suffered season-ending injuries last year, opening up the French doors to 10 Steeler wins last season. Pittsburgh won’t be as lucky this upcoming season and the league’s toughest schedule will finally keep the Black and Gold under .500.
PICK: Steelers Under 8.5 wins
Who will win the AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Ravens or Bengals?
AFC SOUTH:
Geoff Schwartz
Houston Texans
Over/Under: 9.5
C.J. Stroud had one of the best first-year NFL campaigns in the history of the position, and he’s poised to play even better in 2024. The team took advantage of the roster flexibility with a stud QB on a rookie contract to add receiver Stefon Diggs and pass-rusher Danielle Hunter.
The Texans went 10-7 in 2023 with a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback. This Houston team is better than last season, and although it has a first-place schedule after winning the AFC South last season, the division this season isn’t that tough outside of Jacksonville. And are the Jaguars really a better team?
Houston should win 10 or 11 games.
PICK: Texans Over 9.5 wins
The Bear
Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under: 8.5
Your opinion of the Colts likely depends on how you view QB Anthony Richardson, who missed much of last year with injury. Going 9-8 was an overachievement for them last year, and let’s not forget, they were a dropped pass from likely making the playoffs.
The secondary could be really bad, and they face C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa in five of the first eight games of the season. Indy was 6-3 in one-score games last year and really didn’t add anyone impactful outside the draft, so I’d be concerned about the Colts repeating last year’s nine-win season.
PICK: Colts Under 8.5 wins
PICK: Colts Under 7.5 wins (at plus money)
Geoff Schwartz
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under: 8.5
Their offense was hit-or-miss last season, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence seemingly flat-lining after his impressive sophomore season. But if you dig deeper, you will see how many passes his weapons dropped and how many of those passes would have been touchdowns. Do not expect that to happen in 2024.
The Jags defense was average last season; this season, they added Arik Armstead and Ronald Darby. They should improve on that side of the ball.
The Jaguars have won nine games in both of the Doug Pederson seasons as head coach in Jacksonville, and I believe they will win at least nine games again in 2024.
PICK: Jaguars Over 8.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz
Tennessee Titans
Over/Under: 6.5
The Titans have a brand-new coaching staff and a quarterback who I’m just not sold on yet.
I do think they have adequate weapons around Will Levis as well as an improved offensive line. Defensively, they have some game-wreckers upfront like Jeffery Simmons. The additions of L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie and Quandre Diggs should help the secondary. However, I just can’t get there with the quarterback situation and a first-time head coach. I’ll take the Under.
PICK: Titans Under 6.5 wins
Who will win the AFC East: Buffalo Bills or New York Jets?
AFC EAST:
Geoff Schwartz
Buffalo Bills
Over/Under: 10.5
This one is tough. I respect that Josh Allen and the Bills have won 11 games or more games in four straight seasons with Allen leading the way. However, they’ve got some obstacles ahead.
The AFC East is harder now that there’s a healthy Aaron Rodgers, they also have to play a first-place schedule, and then, there are some question marks on the roster. The Bills have unproven options at receiver. They’ve got a center-left guard combination I have questions about. They also need more consistency at pass rush in big moments.
A big one here, but the heartbeat of the defense is linebacker Matt Milano — who missed 12 games last season — and he is already injured heading into 2024. I have a hard time seeing Buffalo be better than last season.
PICK: Bills Under 10.5 wins
Will Hill
Miami Dolphins
Over/Under: 9.5
The Dolphins look great when things are going well, but their performance in the frigid conditions in Kansas City last year has to be a concern going forward. The ‘Fins have outdoor games in Buffalo, Green Bay, Cleveland and New York late in the year and a roster that has had trouble staying healthy. I’ll go under in a brutal AFC.
PICK: Dolphins Under 9.5 wins
Sammy P
New England Patriots:
Over/Under: 4.5
I don’t care how good New England’s rookie receivers look in training camp, this offense is shaping up to be horrendous with inexperienced skill players and Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye at quarterback. Oh, and Bill Belichick isn’t there to outscheme other teams on defense.
The Patriots are favored once this year in 17 games. Ouch.
PICK: Patriots Under 4.5 wins
JMAC
New York Jets
Over/Under: 9.5
With arguably the worst QB room in the league last season after Aaron Rodgers went down, the defense still carried the Jets to seven wins.
This offseason, the team added three new offensive linemen and a deep threat in Mike Williams. Once Haason Reddick is signed, New York will have an elite front seven, along with the best group of CBs in the NFL. The schedule is extremely favorable after the opener, too, as opposed to division rivals Miami and Buffalo.
If Rodgers is healthy for 90% of the season, the floor for this team is 10 wins.
PICK: Jets Over 9.5 wins
Is Bo Nix ready to start for the Broncos?
AFC WEST:
Geoff Schwartz
Denver Broncos
Over/Under: 5.5
Maybe I’m influenced by the preseason, but with Bo Nix, the Broncos offense may have a chance to be OK this season. Nix is exactly the type of quarterback that works well in a Sean Payton offense, and Payton has already tailored some of the offense to fit the rookie quarterback.
Denver’s offensive line is fine and that side of the football already has some weapons. The defense is good, and the Broncos have a favorable schedule with two division opponents whom they can beat in any game. I like their Over.
PICK: Broncos Over 5.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under: 11.5
The Chiefs are going to be better this season now that their offense once again features a wide receiver who can run down the field for them. Xavier Worthy is going to change what the Chiefs offense has looked like without Tyreek Hill. That will force teams to play a softer zone, so I see them being much more explosive this season.
On the flip side, their defense likely won’t be as good. But it doesn’t need to be the best in the league for them to win 12 games. Kansas City also gets the benefit of playing two difficult teams at home in the first two weeks. Andy Reid has mostly been fantastic in openers, and they’ll have extra rest before facing the Bengals in Week 2. Win both of those games, and you’ve got a cushion getting to 12 wins.
PICK: Chiefs Over 11.5 wins
JMAC
Las Vegas Raiders
Over/Under: 6.5
Only favored in one of their first 10 games, the Raiders formula will be simple: Play stout defense and hope to win games with scores like 13-10. It worked at times last year, specifically the Christmas Day win in Kansas City.
While the Christian Wilkins addition alongside Maxx Crosby will make Vegas tough up front, the secondary didn’t get any better. Short of massive injuries throughout the division, the Raiders are more likely to trade Davante Adams at the deadline than they are to win seven games this season.
PICK: Raiders Under 6.5 wins
The Bear
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under: 8.5
Even before Justin Herbert was diagnosed with a plantar fascia injury, I was bullish on this bet.
Those fading the Chargers this year are going to get a Harbaugh bump, as he’s had a tendency to succeed in immediate turnarounds wherever he’s been. But this is a big roster overhaul because they were in salary-cap hell.
The schedule appears easy since the Raiders and Broncos are in the division, but don’t forget they lost 63-21 to LV last year. There are also big questions at WR and on defense.
Harbaugh is the guy to change the culture here and get this franchise on the right track, but it just isn’t going to happen in one year.
PICK: Chargers Under 8.5 wins
PICK: Chargers Under 7.5 wins (at plus money)
How much stock is in Caleb Williams’ offseason?
NFC NORTH:
Patrick Everson
Chicago Bears:
Over/Under: 8.5
Yes, rookie QB Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears are getting plenty of love from the public betting masses. That includes bettors firing on Over 8.5 wins. No doubt, Williams has tremendous potential, but it could be tough to reach that ninth win.
As sharp NFL bettor Randy McKay noted: “This team won seven games last year, but I don’t see enough improvement for them to win nine games. The Bears’ defense improved after they acquired Montez Sweat. The offense has young rookie talent with Williams and Rome Odunze. But I don’t see enough improvement on the offensive line. And the schedule is tough. Three straight road games from Weeks 13-15 will be difficult.”
McKay isn’t betting on the Bears’ win total, but he leans toward the Under. So I’m following that lean, and taking Under 8.5 (+130) at Circa Sports.
PICK: Under 8.5 wins
Sammy P
Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 10.5
Heartbreak does weird things in the NFL, and the last time we saw the Lions, they blew a 17-point lead in the NFC title game. Sure, they’re talented. Sure, they’re explosive. But a tough schedule and natural regression has me shorting all the Detroit hype this upcoming season.
This won’t be popular, but I don’t expect the Lions to match last year’s magic.
PICK: Lions Under 10.5 wins
Sammy P
Green Bay Packers
Over/Under: 9.5
The Lions are the North’s public darling, but the Packers are just as good. Green Bay’s passing offense was metrically stronger than Detroit’s last year, per Sumer Sports, and their three young receivers are all a year older. Adding Josh Jacobs helps the running game and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is a big improvement from Joe Barry.
PICK: Packers Over 9.5 wins
JMAC
Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under: 6.5
This is a bet on one of the sharpest offensive minds in the NFL, Kevin O’Connell. While Saquon Barkley-to-the-Eagles got all the publicity, the Vikings snagging Aaron Jones was enormous.
One big reason for Green Bay’s late-season push was because of a healthy Jones. He went over 100 yards rushing in the season’s final five games, which took pressure off first-time starter Jordan Love. There’s a risk here given the looming suspension of WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson returning from injury and a tough early season schedule, but I like this number.
PICK: Vikings Over 6.5 wins
Kevin O’Connell says Kirk Cousins helped him ‘become the coach he is today’
NFC SOUTH:
Will Hill
Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under: 9.5
Kirk Cousins was brought in to be the missing piece in Atlanta. That’s similar to the expectations the Vikings had when they brought him back in 2018. Those expectations were never met in Minnesota, and Cousins has had a reputation for coming up short throughout his career. Coming off an injury and expecting this team to get to 10 wins is asking a lot. I’ll take the Under.
PICK: Falcons Under 9.5 wins
Sammy P
Carolina Panthers
Over/Under: 5.5
Wise guys love Carolina this year. New head coach Dave Canales worked wonders with Russell Wilson, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield over the last few years and those bettors are optimistic about him guiding young quarterback Bryce Young in the right direction. The two-win Panthers lost six games by one score in 2023. They’ll be better.
PICK: Panthers Over 5.5 wins
Will Hill
New Orleans Saints
Over/Under: 7.5
Dennis Allen has gone under his season win total mark every year he’s been a head coach in the NFL. With a Derek Carr-Dennis Allen quarterback-coach combo and a team paying the price for years of going over the salary cap, I can only look under the number here.
PICK: Saints Under 7.5 wins
The Bear
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under: 7.5
Tampa Bay crushed their season win total of 7.5 last year behind a career season from Baker Mayfield and some turnover luck. But, I see some regression coming.
The defense should take a step back as Shaquil Barrett, Carlton Davis and Ryan Neal are now gone. Even with those starters in the secondary last year, the Buccaneers struggled against the pass. The running game wasn’t good last year. And TB is seemingly running it back with mostly the same crew, with a huge difference being the interior of the OL, where at least one rookie will start.
I love fading these teams that exceed expectations one year and then the following year, people expect more. The Bucs face Detroit, Baltimore, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco as a result of a first-place schedule — despite not having first-place talent.
PICK: Buccaneers Under 7.5 wins
PICK: Buccaneers Under 6.5 wins (at plus money)
Mike McCarthy on final year of his contract, Will this impact the Cowboys?
NFC EAST:
Patrick Everson
Dallas Cowboys:
Over/Under: 10.5
There’s uncertainty about the long-term future of Dak Prescott at QB. And Dallas got its head handed to it by Green Bay in the wild-card round last season. Sharp NFL bettor Randy McKay isn’t convinced the Cowboys can reach 11 wins. “This team did nothing to improve after the embarrassing loss to Green Bay in the playoffs. In fact, the Cowboys lost two of their offensive linemen, left tackle Tyron Smith (Jets) and center Tyler Biadasz (Commanders).” Dallas also lost defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, now the Commanders coach. “The schedule is difficult, a first-place schedule, since the Cowboys won the NFC East last year,” McKay said. And while he’s not betting on Under 10.5, he certainly wants nothing to do with Over 10.5. I’ll go with that lean and take Under 10.5 this season.
PICK: Under 10.5 wins
JMAC
New York Giants
Over/Under: 6.5
Unless you’re banking on the defense — specifically the front four — to keep the Giants in games and hope explosive rookie Malik Nabers can do enough for you, New York is going to struggle mightily to get near six wins. The Giants were the worst first-quarter scoring team the last two seasons. They were also dead last in explosive plays in both of the last two seasons. This is an extremely limited team offensively. And it feels like all of their eggs are in the defensive basket, led by Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Good luck with that.
PICK: Giants Under 6.5 wins
Sammy P
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under: 10.5
I’m as bullish as they come on Philadelphia this year. Let’s not forget, the Eagles started 10-1 a season ago before multiple injuries and poor defensive schematics sent them into a downward spiral. Vic Fangio’s “D” will be better, and Philly’s first two draft picks were defensive backs. Add Saquon Barkley to a top-10 offense and everything will be fine. Philly is favored in 14 of 17 games and I like ‘em 7/1 to win the NFC.
PICK: Eagles Over 10.5 wins
Patrick Everson
Washington Commanders
Over/Under: 6.5
There’s a new coach in Dan Quinn and a potential franchise QB in rookie Jayden Daniels. Professional bettor Randy McKay isn’t making a play on the Commanders’ season win total, but he’s still got an opinion. “I thought Jayden Daniels was the best QB in the draft. The offensive line is new, but the weapons have talent. The key to go Over will be the strength of the defensive line. The Commanders’ schedule is decent and their bye is late (Week 14). This team could be a surprise.” I’ll buy that and take Washington Over 6.5 wins.
PICK: Commanders Over 6.5 wins
How Christian McCaffrey calf injury affects early NFL betting for Niners
NFC WEST:
JMAC
Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under: 7.5
The Cardinals won just four games last year, although without Kyler Murray, that was totally predictable. Their win total jumps to 7.5 this year — for reasons that remain unclear. They are underdogs in 10 of their first 11 games, and September is particularly brutal. They play at Buffalo and then face the Rams and Lions. All were playoff teams last year. October features games against the 49ers, Packers, Chargers and Dolphins. The defense lacks playmakers. Maybe a healthy Murray, a healthy offensive line and a stud rookie in Marvin Harrison will help keep Arizona competitive. But wins? Nope.
PICK: Cardinals Under 7.5 wins
Will Hill
Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under: 8.5
The consensus this time last year was that the Rams were rebuilding and it might be Matthew Stafford’s last year. That was far from reality, as the Rams made the playoffs and Stafford had a fantastic season. With an elite head coach and a good quarterback, I can only look Over here.
PICK: Rams Over 8.5 wins
Patrick Everson
San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under: 11.5
It’s good to have well-informed sources for markets such as NFL regular-season win totals. In this instance, professional bettor Randy McKay weighed in on why it will be a challenge for the defending NFC champion to surpass 11.5 wins. “San Francisco has a very tough schedule, with negative rest advantage and playing four teams off their bye week. That, along with improved Rams and Seahawks teams, will make it tough. And the 49ers’ No. 16-ranked offensive line doesn’t help, either.”
PICK: 49ers Under 11.5 wins
The Bear
Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under: 7.5
I love the Mike MacDonald hire, and I’d expect he would make a few more +EV/EPA decisions than his predecessor did as head coach. I’m not a Geno Smith guy, but he’s “fine” and maybe Ryan Grubb’s offense will fit him well. The WRs are certainly there for the offense to be explosive. The schedule should allow for a 2-0 start as Seattle opens with Denver and New England, teams that will be starting either a rookie or stop-gap quarterback. Byron Murphy should be a force in MacDonald’s defense. There’s a lot to like here as a sleeper type playoff team.
PICK: Seahawks Over 7.5 wins
PICK: Seahawks Over 8.5 wins (at plus money)
PICK: Mike MacDonald Coach of the Year (+2000)
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
Source link
