Scottie Scheffler, an Olympic gold medalist, two-time green jacket winner and two-time PGA Tour Player of the Year, is looking to add another achievement to his resume at the 2024 TOUR Championship. The tournament determines the FedExCup champion, and Scheffler's best result to date was a runner-up finish in 2022. He started that year's TOUR Championship atop the rankings and led by two strokes before losing by one stroke to Rory McIlroy. Scheffler will be looking for revenge at the 2024 TOUR Championship, where he will start again two strokes behind Xander Schauffele.
The 2024 Tour Championship gets underway on Thursday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, with the first tee time at 11:16 a.m. ET. Scheffler is the +110 favorite to win, followed by Schauffele at +205. Hideki Matsuyama starts three strokes back at +1200 according to the Tour Championship 2024 odds, with McIlroy (six strokes back) at +1800. Before locking in your 2024 Tour Championship picks, be sure to check out SportsLine's proven golf predictions and projected leaderboard from our computer model.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has proven immensely popular since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model has generated over $9,500 in profits on its top bet since the restart and continues to win tournament after tournament.
This same model had already predicted 13 majors by the end of the week, including the 2024 Masters (a third consecutive Masters), this year's PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed the model has made huge profits.
Now that the field for the 2024 Tour Championship has been finalized, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results are astounding: Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top predictions for the 2024 Tour Championship
The big surprise in the model's projection for the 2024 Tour Championship is that McIlroy (+1800), the 26-time PGA Tour winner and top favorite, stumbled this week and failed to finish in the top five. McIlroy had a strong seven-event season in late spring and early summer, winning consecutive tournaments and finishing in the top five five times during that span, but has struggled on the PGA Tour since then. He missed the cut at the British Open, finished 68th out of 70 at the St. Jude Championship and was 11th at the BMW a week ago. He also finished 11th at last year's Tour Championship based on 72-hole scores.
McIlroy will start the 2024 Tour Championship at four under par, so he'll have to overcome a huge six-stroke gap to catch Scheffler. That's a pretty big gap considering McIlroy is only 67th in birdies on Tour. He's missed a number of birdie opportunities because of his putter. The Irishman is only 65th in putting strokes gained on the PGA Tour. Given his recent slump, the strokes he has to overcome and his struggles on the greens, McIlroy is one of the losers in the 2024 Tour Championship betting. Here are the other losers.
Another surprise: Viktor Hovland, a long shot at +6000, is making a strong run for the title. The reigning FedEx Cup champion starts at 2 under par and 8 strokes back. But the Norwegian is somewhat used to this situation, having had to chase down then-leader Scheffler to win last year. Not only did Hovland win the 2023 Tour Championship with starting strokes applied, he is also the player with the lowest 72-hole score without graded scoring.
Hovlan has finished in the top 15 in all four of his appearances at East Lake based solely on 72-hole scores, including a fourth-place finish in the 2021 tournament. Additionally, Hovlan won the East Lake Cup on this course while at Oklahoma State University, and few players have matched his success at this venue. He was runner-up in the inaugural FedEx Cup Playoff event two weeks ago, and has clearly elevated his level of play this time of year, which could see him move up the leaderboard this week. Find out who else to root for here.
How to choose the 2024 Tour Championship
The model also targets two other golfers with odds of over 35-to-1 to win. Bet on these longshots and you could hit the big time. See the model's predictions exclusively here.
Who will win the 2024 TOUR Championship? And which longshot will surprise the golf world? Check out the TOUR Championship 2024 odds below, then visit SportsLine for the TOUR Championship projected leaderboard. All from a model that has accurately predicted 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and this year's three majors.
2024 Tour Championship starting scores, winning odds
Get our complete picks, best bets and predictions for the 2024 Tour Championship here.
Scottie Scheffler (-10) +110
Xander Schauffele (-8) +205
Hideki Matsuyama (-7) +1200
Keegan Bradley (-6) +3000
Ludvig Auberg (-5) +1600
Rory McIlroy (-4) +1800
Collin Morikawa (-4) +3500
Wyndham Clark (-4) +4000
Sam Burns (-4) +2800
Patrick Cantlay (-4) +4000
Lim Sung-jae (-3) +9000
Sahith Teegala (-3) +20000
Shane Lowry (-3) +20000
Adam Scott (-3) +12500
Tony Finau (-3) +9000
Ahn Byung-hun (-2) +35000
Viktor Hovland (-2) +6000
Russell Henry (-2) +12500
Akshay Bhatia (-2) +35000
Robert McIntyre (-2) +35000
Billy Horschel (-1) +20000
Tommy Fleetwood (-1) +10000
Sepp Straka (-1) +40000
Mathieu Pavón (-1) +75000
Taylor Pendris (-1) +40000
Chris Kirk (E) +50000
Tom Hogue (E) +50000
Aaron Lai (E) +50000
Christian Bezuidenhout (E) +50000
Justin Thomas (E) +30000
