Jayden Daniels has officially been named Washington's starter, and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner will begin his professional career facing off against another Heisman Trophy winner, Baker Mayfield, as part of the Week 1 NFL schedule. The Commanders vs Buccaneers is a matchup of two teams that have had vastly different performances against the spread in 2023. Tampa has the third-most ATS wins at 12-7, while Washington has the third-fewest ATS wins at 6-10-1. Therefore, if you think NFL betting trends will continue into this season, adding this game to your Week 1 NFL parlay picks seems like a smart decision.
But that NFL betting strategy could be risky, since no one expects Tampa to be better with Mayfield at the helm in 2023 than they were with Tom Brady at the helm in 2022. The best pro football betting advice for Week 1 NFL predictions can help you avoid potential trap games and identify games you should consider in your NFL predictions. Before making any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to check out NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model has simulated every NFL game 10,000 times and has returned over $7,000 in profits for every $100 spent on top-tier NFL picks since its inception. The model has an astounding 185-129 record on top-tier NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season and heading into Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The model has also gone 39-21 on top-tier NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model has ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch for straight-up NFL picks four of the last six years and beat over 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that time, placing it pretty high on anyone who follows it.
Now, the model has thoroughly researched Week 1 NFL odds and confidently identified the five best NFL bets. If you successfully match this model's selections, you can expect to pay out a massive 25 to 1 payout. You can see this model's Week 1 NFL picks exclusively at SportsLine.
NFL Week 1 Top Picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model has the Detroit Lions (-3.5) favored to beat the Los Angeles Rams at home. Detroit beat the Rams in the Wild Card Round last season, and both teams seemed to go in opposite directions in the offseason. Los Angeles has no player or committee to replace three-time DPOY Aaron Donald, and the Rams also lost three starting DBs and their defensive coordinator. This is a big loss for an already weak team, as Los Angeles ranks 30th in forced turnovers and bottom 10 in defensive sacks.
Meanwhile, some of Detroit's best players, including Sam LaPorta and Jameer Gibbs, were rookies last year, so they'll only get better. Detroit ranked in the top five in passing attack, rushing attack and rush defense last year, and the pass defense is a unit that needs to be strengthened. Detroit did just that, using their first two draft picks on cornerbacks and adding former Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis. Add in the significant home-field advantage the Lions will get by hosting their first Sunday night game of the season, and the model has the Lions as 3.5-point favorites with a 50%+ chance of covering. For more NFL parlay picks, see here.
How to make an NFL Week 1 parlay
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where the lines were said to be way off, including the home favorite covering the spread in nearly 70% of simulations. You can see the model's best NFL Week 1 bets and parlays exclusively at SportsLine.
What's the model's top NFL pick for Week 1, and what other NFL matchups should you target for a 25-to-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to find out the answers by seeing the model's best Week 1 NFL bets, which are 185-to-129 on our top-rated picks.
