Cincinnati (-9.5 vs. New England) is the only team favored by more than one touchdown in the Week 1 NFL odds for Patriots head coach Jerrod Mayo's debut. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will return from a season-ending injury, and the Patriots will have Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye under center. Other teams with new quarterbacks at the helm include the Steelers (Russell Wilson), Falcons (Kirk Cousins), Commanders (Jaeden Daniels) and Bears (Caleb Williams). Evaluating teams with new quarterbacks can be a difficult task, but it also creates an opportunity to get an edge with your NFL betting picks. Which teams should you include in your Week 1 NFL parlay picks? Before making any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to check out SportsLine's proven computer model for NFL predictions and betting advice.
The model has simulated every NFL game 10,000 times and has returned over $7,000 in profits for every $100 spent on top-tier NFL picks since its inception. The model has an astounding 185-129 record on top-tier NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season and heading into Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The model has also gone 39-21 on top-tier NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model has ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch for straight-up NFL picks four of the last six years and beat over 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that time, placing it pretty high on anyone who follows it.
Now, the model has thoroughly researched Week 1 NFL odds and confidently identified the five best NFL bets. If you successfully match this model's selections, you can expect to pay out a massive 25 to 1 payout. You can see this model's Week 1 NFL picks exclusively at SportsLine.
NFL Week 1 Top Picks
After simulating each game 10,000 times, the model gives the Detroit Lions (-3.5) a high chance of beating the Los Angeles Rams at home. Detroit just played in the NFC Championship last season and won its division for the first time in 30 years. The Lions have brought back almost all of their offensive prowess from last year and are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season.
The Rams will face a Los Angeles defense that ranks third in the NFL in total yards per game (394.8) and 20th in yards allowed per game (337.9). The Rams lost star defensive tackle Aaron Donald (retired) in the offseason and will have a hard time containing Detroit's explosive offense. SportsLine's model has the Lions scoring 30 or more points in this game and covering the spread more than 50% of the time in our latest simulations. For more NFL parlay picks, see here.
How to make an NFL Week 1 parlay
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where the lines were said to be way off, including the home favorite covering the spread in nearly 70% of simulations. You can see the model's best NFL Week 1 bets and parlays exclusively at SportsLine.
What's the model's top NFL pick for Week 1, and what other NFL matchups should you target for a 25-to-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to find out the answers by seeing the model's best Week 1 NFL bets, which are 185-to-129 on our top-rated picks.
