In fact, we’re talking about the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship playoffs this week.
Only 70 players will compete for a spot in the 2024 FedEx Cup. The field has traditionally been 125 players, but that will be reduced from 70 to 50 for next week's BMW Championship. From there, the top 30 will advance to the Tour Championship at East Lake.
For now, the best on the PGA Tour is in Memphis, Tennessee (unless Matt Kuchar gets in the way at Wyndham).
Scottie Scheffler is the expected favorite, followed by Xander Schauffele, and our betting analysts have their eye a little further down the line on outright bets that will be settled on Monday morning.
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks
I gave this answer when I talked about Jon Rahm being a glaring outlier on the odds board going into the Olympic solo options that should be close to the top two, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele.
My betting strategy is always to find a long-term advantage that I can exploit, which has resulted in the following answer: The selection with increased odds this week is Ludvig Aberg, who should come in just a little closer to the two Goliaths on the board.
In my model, Aberg was third in expected tee-to-green scores, second in par-70 scores, and first in opportunities created + success rate. The last category is just a fancy way of combining iron play with historic Bermuda putting to predict who will score the most birdies.
Collin Morikawa is arguably the safest player in the field with his recent onslaught of iron play and short game accomplishments, but I'd bet on Aberg's high because you can pair him with other ball-striking powerhouses like Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland.
If you were to ask, “Who is having the best season without a win?” you would immediately answer Morikawa.
Morikawa's participation in this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship is not just on the cards, but makes a lot of sense. Morikawa said he's had a great season, but he may not be hitting his peak yet.
Morikawa has had two of his best ball-striking performances of 2024 this week, and since he's primarily known as a ball-striker, that should tell you how well he's playing right now.
Also, every time Morikawa has hit a tee shot in this tournament he has hit the golf ball perfectly, gaining big strokes over the field in the ball-striking department every time, and if the same continues this week, Collin will likely win a big buck on Sunday afternoon.
Finau has proven he can win at this stage of the PGA Tour season given that he won the Northern Trust in 2021, which was a playoff event that year, and of course, we head to TPC Southwind this week, but I believe we could see Finau win in a playoff again.
Finau is in great form coming into this week having finished tied for fifth at TPC Southwind in 2022 and advanced to the weekend in 10 of his last 11 tournaments, including four in the top eight. He continues to look for a win and this could finally be the week he gets it.
Finau ranks fifth on the tour this season in GIR% from 150-175 yards. I mention this because the largest distribution of approach shots at TPC Southwind (by far) come from within 25 yards.
Finally, three of the players who finished in the top five here last year also ranked in the top nine of the field in GIR%, which is the only stat or metric where this trend was observed.
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