The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants will begin a pivotal four-game series on Monday night at Oracle Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45pm ET and broadcast on Bally Sports South and NBC Sports Bay Area.
The stage is set for an exciting pitching matchup between the Braves' Chris Sale and the Giants' Blake Snell. Snell, of course, won the National League Cy Young Award last season as a member of the Padres, while Sale is the top betting favorite this season, currently listed at +100 odds on DraftKings.
After Sunday's shocking collapse, the Braves now lead the Giants by just 1.5 games for the final wild-card spot in the National League. The stakes for this National League showdown couldn't be higher, so let's make some Braves vs. Giants predictions.
Braves vs Giants odds
Monday, August 12
9:45pm ET
MLB.TV
Braves Odds Money Line Total Run Line
-102
6.5
-108o / -112u
-1.5
+168
Giants Odds Money Line Total Run Line
-116
6.5
-108o / -112u
+1.5
-205
Braves vs. Giants odds for Monday have the Giants as slight -116 money line favorites with an over/under of 6.5 (-108o / -112u). Oddsmakers expect the scoring to be favored on Monday night with Sale and Snell taking the mound. On the score line, the Braves are +168 to cover -1.5 and the Giants are -205 to cover +1.5.
Braves vs. Giants predicted starting pitchers: Sale vs. Snell
LHP Chris Sale (ATL)StatisticsLHP Blake Snell (SFG)13-3W-L1-34.4fWAR (FanGraphs)1.32.75/2.65ERA /xERA4.31/2.732.25/2.60FIP / xFIP3.11/3.391.00WHIP1.1026.7%K-BB%21.6%47%GB%42.2%101Stuff+118104Location+98For more previews of today's schedule, check out our MLB Betting Hub.
Previewing Monday's Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants match
Atlanta Braves betting predictions: Braves unstable
The Braves were eliminated after blowing an 8-2 lead on Sunday, leaving them with a 61.7% chance of making the playoffs (FanGraphs). A recent loss to the Colorado Rockies has hurt the Braves' standing and confidence.
They have plenty of time to bounce back, but a shocking miss in the playoffs is a lot more likely than anyone expected.
Now is the perfect time for Sale, who is a leading candidate for the National League Cy Young Award with a 2.75 ERA and 4.4 WAR this season, to pitch. Sale wasn't at his best last time out against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing a season-high nine hits in just 4 2/3 innings.
Sale's performance in July has been largely consistent with the rest of the season, posting a 2.68 ERA and a 2.85 xFIP with a 33% strikeout rate and .230 strikeout rate over 34 innings and six starts.
Sale is allowing a .208 slugging percentage off of his fastball this season, with a strikeout rate of 43%.
Sale still looks solid and could pitch seven innings here soon, but Atlanta's relief corps is a concern. Over the past month, Braves relievers have posted a 4.95 ERA, and the relievers are a bit fatigued after a three-game series at Coors Field.
The Braves rank 19th in wRC+ (105) against left-handed pitching since the All-Star break and have the second-highest strikeout rate (32%). For the entire season, they rank 11th in wRC+ (108) against left-handed pitchers.
San Francisco Giants betting predictions: Riding the momentum
The Giants entered the match on a 12-4 winning streak that put them back in the running for a playoff spot.
Given how Snell, Logan Webb and Robbie Ray have pitched recently, they may not get out easily if they get that far.
Since the start of July, Snell has pitched 39 innings with a 1.15 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, .137 xBA allowed and an 18% hard hit rate allowed.
The Giants' offense has been especially impressive against left-handed pitchers, ranking fourth in wRC+ (119) and sixth in hard-hit rate (33%). Since the All-Star break, they have a 136 wRC+ and .843 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Matt Chapman has been a key contributor leading the team in home runs and RBIs, and his recent batting performance has strengthened the Giants' offensive threat.
Braves vs Giants predictions, betting analysis
It seems crazy to think there’s any reason to discount a Cy Young Award front-runner in a pickup, but I think there’s value in the Giants’ moneyline.
Since early July, Snell has pitched to a good ERA and has relatively strong underlying performance compared to Sale. It's probably not correct to claim Snell is better than Sale, but the Giants don't need to do that to have a chance to win this important matchup.
The Giants rank in the top five in offense against left-handed pitching and have been doing well in that department. Their relief staff also has a better record than the Braves, which should give them an advantage in the few innings their starters are absent in this matchup.
If it’s better than -115, I think it’s worth predicting Snell and the Giants to win this game.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-110, Bet365) | Play Moneyline (-115)
History of the Money Line
GiantsBravesOverall61-5861-55Home35-2332-26Away26-3529-29Favorites36-2654-44Underdogs24-317-11
Run Line (Spread) History
GiantsBravesOverall55-6450-66Home27-3123-35Away28-3327-31Favorites26-3643-55Underdogs28-277-11
Totals (Over/Under) History
Giants Braves Overall 62-54-3 43-65-8 Home 26-31-1 20-35-3 Away 36-23-2 23-30-5 Favorites 25-36-1 36-55-7 Underdogs 36-17-27-10-1
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