Best MLB bets for August 13:
There's a packed schedule for Tuesday with six games in each league and three interleague games. There were some really good games last night, especially the Yankees getting beaten by the heavy favorites on the road, which was a surprise. A lot can happen in 162 games, and this was one of them.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (-125, 8.5)
7:40pm ET
Tonight's game sees the Twins heavily favored by prospect Zebby Matthews as he makes his MLB debut, while the Royals will feature Seth Lugo. Bettors are likely to be a bit unfavorable on Lugo as he has struggled in three of his last five starts and has regressed a bit with a 2.72 ERA, 3.95 xERA and 3.45 FIP in 155.2 innings pitched.
In his four starts since the All-Star break, he has allowed six runs twice and one run twice, with two strong starts against the White Sox and Tigers and two poor starts against the Cubs and Red Sox. The Twins have a top-10 offensive output in the second half of the season, posting a ninth-best wOBA of .327 and an eighth-best wRC+ of 113.
I was going to pick the Royals here because I thought the line movement was a bit extreme, but there are certainly signs of regression in Lugo's profile and he's now pitched more innings than he has in any MLB season and the most innings in any season in professional baseball, so I'm especially sensitive to that this time of year.
Matthews is a promising pitcher who has struck out a lot of batters and walked incredibly well in the minor leagues. In professional baseball, he has walked around 3% of batters and generated a lot of strikeouts. However, his control in the zone is a bit questionable. In four starts at Triple-A, he allowed four home runs and 24 hits in 19 innings. When he stepped up from A-ball to High-A last season, he allowed 13 hits in 66.2 innings, after allowing just one in 38.2 innings at the lower level.
The Royals are a super aggressive offense that doesn't issue many walks or strikeouts, so if they're going to be truly aggressive in the zone, it's going to be tough on Matthews, who has been hit a lot in the minor leagues this season and whose batted ball variability has been an issue.
Both teams' bullpens rank in the bottom half of the league in second-half ERA, so tonight's game in the Twin Cities could be an interesting one.
Pick: Royals/Twins 8.5 or higher (-112)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 9) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
8:10pm ET
To be honest, my stance on the Collin Rea fade hasn't worked out too well, except for the Brewers, who got the over on their own last time out, and I'm going to give it another go today with the Dodgers, who just got Mookie Betts back and Freddie Freeman in a slightly better frame of mind to join the top of the lineup.
The Dodgers' team total over 2.5 is +114 through the first five innings, which is my focus here. Ray has a 3.38 ERA, 4.75 xERA and 4.27 FIP in 122.1 innings pitched. With 7 outs today, he'll set a new career high for MLB innings pitched in a season. I still don't believe in his 79.8% LOB% with his low K%. Last season, he had a 4.55 ERA with a more reasonable LOB% of 72.6%. There's a lot of room for regression here.
It's unclear whether Rea will be able to handle this lineup as well as the rest of the team, but all the stats point to a tough situation and the Dodgers lineup should get a big boost with Betts back in the mix.
Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 teams total 2.5 or more (+114)
