“Bangladesh is currently undergoing a reform process that will take a significant amount of time to complete before elections are held and the interim government will need India's support.”
India's “Neighborhood First” foreign policy was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014 and aims to strengthen ties with countries in the South Asian region.
Bangladesh's main opposition parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, have traditionally supported closer ties with China and Pakistan rather than India.
China's influence in Bangladesh is particularly strong in defense cooperation: The People's Liberation Army announced in May that it would conduct joint military exercises with the Bangladeshi army. From 2019 to 2023, Bangladesh is the second-largest recipient of Chinese arms exports, after Pakistan, at 11 percent, according to official data.
03:05
Bangladesh protests widen to target officials appointed under Sheikh Hasina's government
Bangladesh protests widen to target officials appointed under Sheikh Hasina's government
The situation in Bangladesh adds to a series of setbacks in India's regional diplomacy.
In the Maldives, President Mohamed Muiz, who campaigned on an anti-India platform, expelled Indian troops who were flying aircraft given to Male by India and forged stronger ties with China.
In Nepal, KP Sharma Oli, who has taken a pro-China stance and been at odds with India over territorial disputes, has returned as prime minister. Relations between India and Afghanistan have also been tense since the Taliban seized power in 2021.
Samaranayake said despite these challenges, the situation is not entirely bleak in India's relations with other small South Asian countries.
“Bhutan remains the country most aligned with India. While many have criticised the Maldives' policy of halting foreign military presence and strengthening its own defence capabilities, the new government is open to an Indian civilian presence in a revised aviation security cooperation programme,” she said.
02:12
Chinese survey vessel docked in Sri Lanka's Hambantota port amid rising regional tensions
Chinese survey vessel docked in Sri Lanka's Hambantota port amid rising regional tensions
Samaranayake noted that Sri Lanka, like other small South Asian countries, faces an asymmetric power relationship with India and often finds itself in a weaker position.
“For example, Sri Lanka is in favour of a 12-month ban on research vessels due to Indian concerns about Chinese vessels calling at its ports, even though it wants to receive as many ships as possible at its ports and generate revenue,” she said.
“The Sri Lankan presidential elections in September are the next uncertainty for India's neighbourhood first approach. A victory for the left-wing NPP (National People's Power Alliance) will create considerable uncertainty about the direction of India's foreign policy towards India, China and the US.”
According to the State of Southeast Asia 2024 study published by Singapore's Yusof Ishak Institute for Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), India is one of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) least strategic partners, while China is considered the most influential economic, political and strategic power in the region.
Of the 1,994 respondents from 10 Southeast Asian countries who took part in the survey in January and February, only 0.6 percent said India was the most influential economy in the region, with China coming in at 59.5 percent.
Natasha Agarwal, an independent research economist based in India, argued that India's approach towards its neighbours has been marked by arrogance, especially when it comes to dealing with a rising global power like China. She suggested that India may need to adjust its Neighborhood First policy to accommodate China's presence in the region.
“Given the economic clout that India and China have individually and collectively, it may be time for India to redefine its Neighbourhood First policy,” she said.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bhutan's King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck meet at the Tashichho Dzong in Bhutan's capital Thimphu in March. Photo: Press Information Bureau (PIB)/AFP
“Win-win partnership”
While the recent unrest in Bangladesh has had a bit of a negative impact on India's neighbourhood policy, “things are always changing and are likely to change and improve over time,” said Sreerada Dutta, professor at the Jindal School of International Relations at O.P. Jindal Global University.
Dutta called on the Indian government to continue to prioritise national interest in order to maintain good relations in the region.
“India has not lost sight of its neighbourhood first philosophy and will always adhere to it in times of difficulty and under all circumstances. India has to assess how best to work with its neighbours,” she said, adding that even in good times, New Delhi should still be cognizant of the challenges that China could pose.
Former diplomat Anil Trignayath said the 'Neighbourhood First' policy is non-reciprocal in its content and application and is aimed at growth, development and capacity building of India's neighbouring countries.
“India believes that a strong neighbourly relationship is in our interest. Our only expectation from India is that its territory is not used for anti-India security projects like cross-border militancy and terrorism. This is a win-win partnership,” he said.
Trignayath, who served as first secretary in Bangladesh from 1986 to 1990, said bilateral ties with Dhaka were based on people-to-people ties, historical and cultural ties and any problems were temporary.
“In the short term, there may be some setbacks due to preconceptions among the current Bangladeshi leadership, and perhaps the incoming leadership, who have a negative attitude towards India,” he said.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) shakes hands with Maldivian President Mohamed Muiz during an inauguration ceremony in New Delhi, India, on June 9. Modi was sworn in for a third consecutive term as Indian prime minister in June. Photo: Bloomberg
Scott Lucas, professor emeritus at the University of Birmingham, stressed that India's regional standing ultimately depends on the country's own stability and progress.
“Despite external changes, as long as India has a stable government and the country continues to progress politically, socially and economically, the best opportunities will return as the region changes,” Lucas said.
Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, said regional countries remain keen to cooperate with India due to economic and trade imperatives.
“If you look across the region, despite China's growing influence and presence, there are still governments that are keen to at least balance their relations with China and India, and in many cases work closely with India,” Kugelman said.
He cited the example of the Maldives, which has adopted a more tolerant stance towards India's concerns in recent months, and welcomed Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's visit over the weekend to “deepen” bilateral ties.
Kugelman said while the situation in Bangladesh may still pose a significant geopolitical challenge for India, practical considerations such as trade and water security will ultimately result in a viable relationship between the two countries.
