Power dynamics in Southeast Asia remain in flux amid lingering economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and an increasingly complex regional and global security environment. Under the Biden administration, the United States has been working hard to strengthen partnerships and alliances in Southeast Asia. So far, Washington's efforts have been well received, with opinion polls showing the United States retains more soft power and popularity than China in most of the region.
But that advantage may be shrinking. China remains a key partner in Southeast Asia and has sought to supplement its growing economic and political influence with education, jobs, cultural exchanges and other soft power levers. Given these shifting trends, Washington and its allies need a clear and nuanced understanding of how each great power's investments in people-to-people ties translate into overall soft power and strategic alignment between its peoples and its elites.
This analysis builds on a previous CSIS Southeast Asia Program white paper on U.S. and Chinese influence in Southeast Asia, collecting and weighting available country-level public opinion polling data along with economic indicators. This white paper updates those findings and adds data on student mobility and perceptions of soft power to provide a more rigorous assessment of elite and public opinion about the United States and China.
As with previous white papers published by the CSIS Southeast Asia Program on U.S. and Chinese influence, available public opinion polls continue to show that the United States is more popular overall than China in most parts of the region. The overall favorability of the United States among the region's publics is a major advantage for Washington, as it tries to persuade governments to align with the United States on a range of issues, or at least to keep regional countries from aligning with China on issues that harm U.S. interests. However, the U.S. advantage has shrunk in the past year, as factors such as the war in Gaza have negatively affected perceptions of the United States in parts of Southeast Asia, particularly in Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
This report was produced with support from the Japan External Trade Organization.
