Chris Young's “Beyond Earth” column explores the intersection of space technology and policy, providing thought-provoking commentary on the latest advancements and regulatory developments in the field.
Ariane 6 finally took to the skies last month.
Though hampered by a failed third ignition of the rocket's upper stage, the launch was largely successful, signaling that Europe is close to regaining space autonomy.
But Arianespace's days of breaking impressive launch records are over: repeated delays to the launch of Ariane 6 have left Europe without access to space for over a year.
Europe is far behind the US and China and is now stepping up the race to develop reusable rockets. At the current pace, Europe is unlikely to catch up.
Ariane 6 marks the end of an era
Arianespace was once the world leader in rocket launches. The company had a record-breaking year in 2007. Three years before SpaceX's Falcon 9 made its first flight, Arianespace announced five Ariane 5 launches that year, making it the world leader.
These numbers pale in comparison to SpaceX's launch numbers today, with the Falcon 9 approaching the number of launches per year of the now-retired Ariane 5, which flew 113 times and the Falcon 9 96 times last year alone.
Ariane 5 takes off for the final time. Credit: ESA
Unfortunately, Ariane 6 may be remembered as symbolizing the end of an era for Arianespace rather than the beginning of a new one. The European company became a world leader with Ariane 5. With Ariane 6 it is arguably heading straight in the wrong direction.
Although Ariane 6 is a cost-savings model compared to Ariane 5, launch costs are still high, and the fact that it is a non-reusable rocket is emblematic of the stagnation of the European launch sector, a mistake that will not be reversed anytime soon.
At the crossroads: to reuse or not to reuse?
2014 was a turning point for Europe's space ambitions. That year, space ministers met in Luxembourg and agreed on an action plan for Arianespace. The company's next rocket is due to launch in 2020, but crucially, it will not be reusable. An idea to emulate SpaceX's partial reusability was proposed at the summit and rejected.
Instead, representatives of the European Space Agency decided to build a rocket that would be about 50% cheaper to launch than the Ariane 5 and would be more maneuverable in orbit.
European officials have since admitted that this was a mistake. “In 2014, the road forked and we did not choose the right path,” French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said at a press conference in 2020. “We should have chosen a reusable rocket. We should have taken a bold decision.”
Europe's move away from reuse means Ariane 6's 96 launches per year simply won't be possible due to the cost and logistics of building a new rocket for each launch. Instead, Ariane 6 is scheduled to fly about nine times a year.
Europe is planning two configurations of Ariane 6: the Ariane 62 with two boosters, which will cost around 70 million euros per launch, and the Ariane 64 with four boosters, which will cost around 90 million euros.
However, a recent Politico report said those estimates are extremely optimistic, with the first Ariane 6 launch costing over 100 million euros. For comparison, a Falcon 9 launch is estimated to cost SpaceX around 70 million euros per launch.
Ariane 6 Delay
Even a non-reusable rocket is better than no rocket at all.
Before the launch of Ariane 6, French astronaut Thomas Pesquet tweeted: “However you look at it, for strategic, economic and scientific reasons it is essential that Europe has independent access to space. Space has become too important to allow other countries to launch our satellites.”
“From mid-2023 onwards, access to space will no longer be guaranteed for launches from Europe, and this is a major problem,” European Space Agency (ESA) Director General Josef Aschbacher announced at the agency's annual press conference in January last year.
A combination of factors resulted in Europe losing access to space in 2023. The pandemic delayed the development of Ariane 6, and relations between Russia and European countries deteriorated due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Europe had intended to continue launching satellites using Russian Soyuz rockets, but this was now no longer possible. In December 2022, a medium-sized Vega-C rocket failed, resulting in the loss of two satellites.
So the importance of Ariane 6 is partly driven by the need for alternatives – a scathing indictment of the current state of the European launch industry.
The impending start of Ariane 6 operations will be a relief for the continent, but it will also be a lesson in lack of access to space: Europe is too dependent on Arianespace. The company also needs more competition within the continent, which may be contributing to its relative lack of innovation compared to US and Chinese companies.
Where are Europe's reusable rockets?
It seems Europe is finally starting to follow NASA and SpaceX's lead, but it may already be too late: ESA is currently running a program focused on funding new ventures, granting them access to European spaceports and awarding them framework contracts for future launches.
Companies that have benefited include PLD Space, which launched Europe's first private rocket, the Miura 1, from southern Spain last year, and Scotland's Orbex.
But there's still a long way to go. PLD Space's Miura 1 was a reusable suborbital rocket that flew just once and was never recovered after launch. The company's next rocket, Miura 5, could fly by 2026. It's expected to carry a total payload of up to 900 kg (2,000 lbs) to low orbit. The Falcon 9 will carry 22,800 kg (50,265 lbs) to LEO.
Artist's rendering of the Orbex Prime rocket launch. Credit: Orbex
The sunk cost fallacy may also come into play: Europe has subsidized the Ariane 6 program to the tune of about 6 billion euros so far, and it has no intention of abandoning the rocket. In fact, Arianespace CEO Stefan Israel said Europe will likely have to wait until the 2030s to get a reusable rocket.
“When the decision was made about Ariane 6, we did it with the technology available to us to rapidly introduce a new rocket,” Israel said in an April radio appearance. He said Ariane 6 would probably fly in the same field for 10 years before being replaced by a reusable successor.
The Ariane 6 launch will be anything but swift, and Europe may have to play catch-up. China continues to encourage the private sector to build reusable rockets, and SpaceX continues testing the world's most powerful rocket, the fully reusable Starship.
Europe began early development of reusable technology through the Prometheus and Themis programs before the decision was made to go with a non-reusable spacecraft with Ariane 6. With the initial designs in place, a decade seems like an incredibly long time for Europe to catch up.
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About the Editor
Chris Young Chris Young is a journalist, copywriter, blogger and tech geek at heart. He's reported from the likes of Mobile World Congress and written about robots, satellites and other world-changing innovations for publications like Lifehack, The Culture Trip and Flydoscope, as well as some of the world's biggest tech companies, including NEC and Thales.
