This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
UFC will host a packed card for UFC 305 in Perth, Australia, with Drix du Plessis looking to defend his middleweight title against Israel Adesanya in the main event.
Below you'll find my favorite plays, underdogs, props and two-fighter parlays: All odds for UFC 305 are via DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the posting date of this article.
Weight class: Flyweight
Steve Erceg (12-2) vs. Kai Kara-France (24-11)
The co-main event of UFC 305 is an intriguing flyweight bout and I predict Steve Erceg will win against Kai Kara-France.
Erceg is coming off a very tough loss to Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight title and will now be fighting on home soil, while Kara-France is on a losing streak and looks to me more like a gatekeeper to the top five than a true title contender.
Erceg is a solid striker, but will have a big advantage on the ground in this matchup. Erceg should thrive with his wrestling and control of Kara-France, but even if he doesn't get the takedown, I think he'll be the more aggressive striker to pull off a decision win.
Ultimately, Erceg should be able to take control of the fight with a few takedowns and come away with a decision victory.
UFC 305 Best Bets: Steve Erceg (-162)
Weight class: Women's flyweight
Casey O'Neill (9-2) vs. Luana Santos (8-1)
Casey O'Neill was once a promising fighter, but after consecutive losses he could be fighting for a spot at UFC 305 and is in a weak position here.
However, I like O'Neal in this position, and she recently changed her training camp to compete at Fight Ready, which is a good move for her.
On the other hand, Santos is taking on this bout on short notice and there are some concerns about his cardiovascular fitness.
If Santos can beat O'Neal, it could be a long night for her, but it's good that O'Neal has had the time off since her December loss to switch sides and get fully healthy. I think O'Neal can compete standing up, and considering she's the better striker and throws more punches, I think she has a good chance of winning by decision.
UFC 305 Best Bets: Casey O'Neal (+130)
Weight Class: Light
Mateusz Gamrot (24-2) vs. Dan Hooker (23-12)
The main card will feature a lightweight bout between Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker.
Gamrot is a heavy favorite at -340, but I expect him to win by decision. I'm only -130 if he wins by decision. Hooker is the better striker, but Gamrot can hang in the stand-up. Wrestling-wise and grappling-wise, he has a lot of potential.
Hooker is pretty durable and Gamrot isn't known as a finisher, so I expect Gamrot to be able to take Hooker down and control him on the ground to earn a decision win.
UFC 305 Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot wins by decision (-130 on FanDuel)
Weight classes: Flyweight and welterweight
Stewart Nicol (8-0) vs. Jesus Aguilar (10-2)
Carlos Prates (19-6) vs. Li Jingliang (19-8)
In my parlay for UFC 305, I predict Stewart Nicol and Carlos Prates to win.
Nicol will be making his UFC debut and fighting in his home country, but I expect him to win. Nicol looks like the real deal. This flyweight is a pure finisher, while Aguilar is coming off a controversial decision win in a controlled bout last time out. Nicol should be able to execute a similar game plan to Mendonca and Taiala, controlling Aguilar on the ground and winning by submission or clear decision.
Meanwhile, Prates will step up to face Jingliang, and this is good timing to face the Brazilian. Jingliang is 36 years old and hasn't played since September 2022, so rest and age are concerns. Prates, on the other hand, is a very powerful striker and should have a speed advantage over Jingliang.
Jingliang is showing some good chin but he’s facing a pure KO artist and given the volume and amount of damage I think Prates can get a TKO win.
UFC 305 Best Bets: Stewart Nicol vs. Carlos Pratt (-119)
UFC 305 best bets
Here's a roundup of the best bets for UFC 305 this weekend.
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