There is no feud between du Plessis and Adesanya and now is the time for them to prove who is the best. As Israel is the fresher of the two fighters, UFC expects him to have the advantage in Saturday night's bout.
August 14, 2024 • 16:46 ET • 4 min read
Drix du Plessis will fight former two-time champion Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title this Saturday at UFC 305.
It's a highly anticipated grudge match between two fighters who have been trading verbal abuse over the last year, with Adesanya listed as a slight -120 favorite in the UFC odds.
Here are our predictions and predictions for UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya, which takes place on August 18 at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.
Du Plessis vs Adesanya predictions and picks
Combat Analysis
Both fighters are fresh off bouts against Sean Strickland, with Dorricus du Plessis winning the title by a narrow split decision to Strickland in February and Adesanya losing his belt in a one-sided decision last September.
That said, math doesn't always translate to the same results in MMA, and Adesanya is a nightmare opponent for du Plessis. Strickland beat Adesanya with pressure and volume, and while du Plessis is a high-output striker, the South African applies a different kind of pressure.
Strickland is patient while applying pressure, has good defense and strikes with a rhythm that is difficult to understand. Du Plessis has more predictable combinations and needs to rush his opponent to apply pressure, which leaves him open to counter attacks. His poor striking defense will be exposed by Adesanya, who may be the best counter striker in MMA history.
Duplessis has a tendency to keep his chin up when throwing looping punches, which doesn't work against Adesanya, who has good distance control and hits to the middle, so Adesanya should be able to utilize his more technical kickboxing to beat DDP unless he is taken down and controlled on the mat.
Best Analysis
When this fight first started being talked about last summer, Adesanya was listed as a -330 favorite to win. When DDP was officially announced as the winner in June, Izzy was a much lower -140, and now it's all pretty much what you'd expect. It's easy to see why the money is on du Plessis — after all, he's five years younger and there are rumors circulating that Adesanya is done for.
That being said, any talk of Adesanya being past his prime seems premature. Keep in mind it's only been 16 months since he dominated current light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. Adesanya obviously shouldn't be anywhere near -330, but going all the way up to -120 seems like a massive overcorrection.
Don't get me wrong, Adesanya played awful against Strickland, nearly losing the fight in the first round and failing to show the urgency or production he needed to turn things around, but it was a disappointing moment after his inspirational win over Pereira and also a telling look ahead for Adesanya, who is eager to face du Plessis but “settled” for the Strickland bout.
Adesanya hasn't fought since September of last year, but taking nearly a year off to reset might be good for him, especially since he admits he's physically and mentally fatigued after nine title fights in four years. If Adesanya is as focused as he appears, he should be able to show off his striking skills against a vulnerable du Plessis and make the price of this major title win seem like a gift.
Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya odds
Ways of victory Du Plessis Adesanya Outright victory +100 -120 KO/TKO victory +350 +270 Decision victory +380 +225 Submission victory +675 +2,900 Draw +2,500 +2,500
Odds as of 8-14.
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Dricus du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya result
du Plessis Adesanya 30 Age 35 Height 6' 6' 4″ Weight 185 lbs 76″ Reach 80″ Fighting Record 21-2 (9 KOs) 24-3 (16 KOs)
It is not intended for use in MA.
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