With just a few weeks until the 2024 US Open, it's an exciting time for tennis fans and bettors. This week, the world's top players will compete at the Cincinnati Open, a 1000-level event for both men and women. Last year, this tournament featured a captivating final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. Unfortunately, we won't see Djokovic at this year's event. However, with a full field of both the ATP and WTA, this will be a great tennis week. As always, we will bring you the best tennis bets and predictions every day. It will continue with the action on Thursday, August 15. Keep reading for my favorite picks of the day. Also, click the link below to go to my Pro Picks page, where I post my picks for some of the smaller tournaments and challenger-level events.
MORE DETAILS: Check out our Pro Picks page to see everything our experts are betting on.
2024 Record: 643-635 (+34.15 units)
Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Zverev
It's been a strange season for Khachanov. Once one of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, he's just 23-16 since the start of 2024. His 59.0% win percentage is his lowest since 2020. Khachanov also struggled in the shortened grass court season, going 1-3 in his four matches. That's a bit surprising for a player who has thrived on this surface and boasts a 24-15 ATP record. However, Khachanov is usually in good form around this time of year, so there's no reason he can't bounce back soon. By all accounts, the Russian is healthy now and it's hard to imagine his struggles continuing. Khachanov also played one of his best matches of the season on Monday, beating Francisco Cherndolo 6-0, 6-3. Now, I expect the Russian to outplay Zverev and build on that performance.
When Zverev faced Khachanov at the Miami Open in March, he won 6-1, 6-4 in just an hour and 10 minutes. But Khachanov wasn't in particularly good form at that point in the season, so the Russian is playing Zverev at a good time. Zverev just had a pretty bad match against Sebastian Korda in Montreal, and the German hasn't been in good form lately. He's had some really bad losses, like in Hamburg against Arthur Fils and in straight sets against Lorenzo Musetti at the Olympics. So Khachanov should have some hope that he can play here. And the reality is that Zverev's forehand was totally out of whack against Korda, so if Khachanov can attack that side of the court well, he'll be in good form.
Khachanov also has a good grip on the ball and Cincinnati likes players with strong serves. That said, I expect this match to be close for a set or two and it's worth taking a chance on Khachanov taking one of them. Incidentally, he has beaten Zverev twice in his career so it's not like this match was a nightmare for him.
Betting: Khachanov +1.5 sets (-105 – 1.5 units)
Brandon Nakashima vs. Arthur Fils
I rarely bet like this, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't a tiebreaker here. These two have played six sets together, three of which went to tiebreakers. The other set was also very close. When they met in France in 2023, Fils won one of the three sets 7-5. So, at plus-money odds, I'm a bit of a bet on this play.
Nakashima is a hard serve hitter, and his hold rate has risen to 87.8% this year. However, Nakashima is a very poor returner, and his break rate in 2024 is just 17.6%. That's a big increase from last year's break rate of 13.9%. With that in mind, Nakashima will be able to get holds easily, but won't put much pressure on Fiss's serve. Fiss has a hold rate of just 84.0% over the past 52 weeks on hard courts, but he can be very good at times when he gets the ball on his racket. Even if he didn't, it's unclear whether Nakashima would have the strength to consistently return serves back into play.
Betting: Tiebreaker of 0.5 or more (+105)
Yulia Putintseva vs Coco Gauff
If you've been reading my tennis articles for the past year or so, you know I don't have much faith in Gauff's tennis. It's really hard to reliably win matches with a terrible forehand, and I just think her serve is getting worse and worse. With that in mind, I expect Putintseva to take a set from the American in Cincinnati. Gauff played arguably the best tennis of her career at this tournament last year, but Putintseva is just a wall along the baseline. So if Gauff can't prevent forehand mistakes, Putintseva will prolong the rallies and force her to hit as many forehands as possible, which should allow her to score.
Of course, we should say right away that Gauff is close to winning the U.S. Open. She may not be the most glamorous player, but she is now +850 to win the tournament. The odds are much more favorable than they were just a few weeks ago, and Gauff has the ability to rock out in front of a raucous New York crowd.
Betting: Putintseva +1.5 sets (-103 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have many more plays listed on my Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season, so be sure to check it out. I'll probably add a few more, so refresh that page throughout the day if you're looking for some action. I also list picks for Challenger level plays and lower level ATP and WTA events.
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