The AUKUS drone test, equipped with cutting-edge AI, highlights the alliance's push for technology-driven military superiority, but industrial constraints and China's market dominance could weaken its preparedness for future conflict.
This month, the UK's Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) reported that the AUKUS nations of Australia, the UK and the US have successfully tested an AI-enabled unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that allows a human operator to detect and neutralise targets on the ground.
The test is part of the AUKUS Resilient and Autonomous Artificial Intelligence Technology (RAAIT) series and marks the first real-time military application of an autonomous and AI sensing system, according to DSTL.
The exercise, conducted as part of the annual U.S.-sponsored Project Convergence, showcased collaborative AI and autonomy, significantly reducing target identification time and minimizing risk to personnel, the sources said.
The exercise also highlighted the potential of protecting military assets from electronic warfare and GPS attacks, and demonstrated increased interoperability and access to advanced AI among AUKUS nations, the report said.
As quoted by DSTL, Brigadier General Rachel Singleton, head of the AUKUS Defence Artificial Intelligence Centre (DAIC), stressed the importance of interoperable systems being developed among the three countries.
Sources said the technology has advanced rapidly since it was first trialed in the UK in April 2023 and is aimed at giving the military an operational advantage against evolving threats.
Such joint efforts could be part of AUKUS Pillar II, which focuses on advanced military capabilities such as cyber capabilities, AI and autonomy, quantum technology, undersea capabilities, hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, and electronic warfare capabilities.
Small drones have proven to be devastating weapons in the ongoing Ukraine war, but AUKUS could be slow to adopt them as a central part of a technology-driven alliance.
The consortium faces significant challenges in introducing small drones, including high production costs, competition from Chinese manufacturers, reliance on Chinese-made parts, and competition for resources with other projects.
Defense One reported this month that the U.S. military may face a production shortage of small drones for military use, in contrast to Ukraine's production of 1 million first-person view drones each year.
Defense One noted that even as the U.S. military ramps up its drone deployment, inspired by battlefield success in Ukraine, domestic manufacturers such as Skydio and Teal are struggling to meet demand due to China's market dominance and rising production costs.
The Defense One report said that limited support from the US Department of Defense (DOD) and slow purchasing processes have been obstacles for startups in the drone market, and also cited concerns that US-made drones are more expensive and less capable than their Chinese counterparts.
However, Breaking Defense reported this month that the US has selected several systems for the second phase of its Replicator program, which aims to deploy disposable drones on a large scale. The US has previously included the Switchblade kamikaze drone in the program.
The Defence Post reported in August 2023 that the Australian government was using 3,000 Chinese-made drones equipped with cameras, gimbals, batteries and other components that are blacklisted by the US for suspected ties to the People's Liberation Army (PLA), highlighting Australia's reliance on China for drone capabilities.
The Defence Post noted that this situation leaves Australia vulnerable to supply chain disruptions as it does not have a domestic drone manufacturing base, and while Australia has a mature drone ecosystem, it is only used commercially, the paper said.
Despite these challenges, Defence Post reported in February that Australia had awarded contracts worth US$800,899 to 11 Australian companies to build unmanned aerial system (UAS) prototypes for its military.
Sources said such a move would help develop Australia's independent drone industry, create jobs and improve the effectiveness of military operations.
In March 2024, Breaking Defense reported that No. 216 Squadron of the Royal Air Force (RAF), established in 2020 to test unmanned aerial vehicles, has not tested any drones. This is inconsistent with the National Military Drone Strategy's goal of rapid drone service integration, the report noted.
Then-UK Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge revealed the squadron's grounding in a parliamentary statement, noting that planned trials of the Koios spy drone had been cancelled due to resource conflicts.
The UK Defence Drone Strategy 2024 will invest $5.91 billion in unmanned capabilities over the next two years to inject much-needed capital into the domestic drone industry and revitalise drone production, drive procurement reform, build a resilient industrial base, define a digital architecture for seamless integration and foster a culture of innovation.
The AUKUS bloc faces several challenges in expanding drone production and has taken important steps to address them, but they may be moving too slowly and at too little scale.
This does not bode well for AUKUS in its relationship with China, the world's largest drone manufacturer and perhaps the reason for the alliance's existence.
In line with this, the WSJ noted this month that while the US is focused on the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), China sees an opportunity to modernize its own military forces vis-à-vis the US.
The WSJ notes that AI-enabled drones are crucial to China's military modernization efforts, and while fully autonomous drones may still be a long way off, the Journal reports that drones with limited autonomy could be used in combat within a few years.
The report also states that while the United States leads with larger, more complex drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-4 Global Hawk, China is the world leader in consumer drones and dominates the global drone supply chain.
The report noted that China's DJI holds 72.3% of the global drone market share, while the United States struggles to produce reliable, affordable small drones at scale.
The WSJ notes that China's comparative advantage in manufacturing small systems gives it an advantage in drone swarm tactics, and that while the U.S. has adopted a man-in-the-loop approach to using AI-enabled drone swarms, potential adversaries such as China may not adhere to such norms.
Moreover, Mark Milley and Eric Schmidt argue in a Foreign Affairs article this month that the United States is ill-prepared for a new warfare environment dominated by unmanned systems, AI, and autonomous weapons.
Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Google CEO Schmidt say the U.S. has lagged in effectively developing and fielding such capabilities even as global competitors have rapidly advanced these technologies.
They attribute the delays to bureaucratic inertia, outdated military doctrine, and a lack of a clear strategic focus on integrating AI and autonomous systems into combat operations.
These shortcomings are especially worrisome as conflicts increasingly rely on these advanced technologies for battlefield advantage, the researchers say. Failing to address the gap could leave the United States vulnerable in future conflicts in which advantages in AI and autonomous weapons systems could be crucial, they warn.
