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In 2023, more than 47,000 heatstroke deaths will occur in Europe, making it the hottest year in the world and the second hottest in Europe. These grim figures come from a study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) published in the journal Nature Medicine. The study highlights that although societal adaptations are mitigating the effects of heat, the mortality burden remains significant.
The newly published study used temperature and mortality data from 823 locations in 35 European countries. Although 2023 did not experience the same extreme heatwaves as 2022, high temperatures in July and August accounted for more than 57% of total deaths. Southern European countries were particularly affected, with Greece, Bulgaria and Italy reporting the highest heatstroke mortality rates.
“Our results indicate that societal adaptations have led to a substantial reduction in heat-related vulnerability and mortality, especially among older adults,” according to Elisa Gallo, a research scientist at ISGlobal and lead author of the study. She points out that the minimum temperature at which mortality risk is lowest has increased from 59°F in the early 2000s to 63.9°F in recent years, reflecting these adaptations.
Despite these advances, the study cautions that the true number of heatstroke deaths may be underreported because it relied on weekly rather than daily mortality data. With improved data, the researchers estimate that the death toll could be as high as 58,000.
“Europe is warming twice as fast as the global average and the 1.5°C (34.7°F) limit set by the Paris Agreement is likely to be exceeded by 2027. Strategies to reduce mortality from future heat waves and strengthen monitoring of the impacts of climate change on vulnerable populations are urgently needed,” warns Joan Ballester Claramunt, lead researcher of the ERC Integrated Grant EARLY-ADAPT.
To support these efforts, ISGlobal developed Forecaster.health, a tool that provides forecasts of mortality risk associated with extreme temperatures by sex and age for 580 locations across 31 European countries. The tool provides forecasts up to 15 days ahead to help communities prepare for extreme weather events.
