The Jacksonville Jaguars looked poised to challenge the AFC's elite teams for the first three months of 2023, but December saw them shattered with an 8-3 record straight up and against the spread in their opening 11 games.
The Jaguars can either use their 1-5 finish in 2023 as motivation for next year or let their late-season collapse carry them into 2024.
Expectations aren't as high for Jacksonville as they were last year, with 8.5 wins in just nine games and the team projected to compete for second place in the AFC South. The schedule is also much tougher than last season, with multiple championship contenders and division rivals like Houston and Indianapolis on their way to victory.
Can Doug Pederson turn things around, or are Jaguars supporters in for another bitter season? Here are our NFL predictions for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2024.
Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
Marquette Super Bowl Winner +5,000 Conference Winner +2,500 Division Winner +275 Playoff Appearance +130 8.5 or More Wins -110 8.5 or Less Wins -110
Best Futures Bet: No Playoffs (-155)
A quick run-through of their upcoming schedule against the projected line and win totals would put the Jacksonville Jaguars on top of the league with nine wins in 2024. That would likely get them second in the AFC South, but would put them below other AFC underdogs like Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo, the NY Jets and the Chargers in the conference pecking order.
The Jaguars' schedule is one of the toughest in the league, but their commitment to playing games in the U.K. makes that schedule even more daunting. Jacksonville could pick up where they left off, but that's not a good thing considering they have only two true home games through the first seven weeks.
Overview of the Jacksonville Jaguars: Risky business
Jacksonville is desperate, and 2024 will show just how aggressive this team is on both offense and defense. The offense needs Trevor Lawrence to make big plays by using the downfield speed of the receivers. The defense, under new coordinator Ryan Nielsen, is looking to apply more pressure and create more game-changing plays. The philosophy behind these two is high risk, high reward.
What will win: Skill positions
Lawrence's efforts were limited by injuries in 2023, resulting in plenty of turnovers as the team stumbled to the finish line, but when healthy he remains a fine passer, and the addition of two home run hitters in wide receiver Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. has given the playbook a playbook that relies on his big arm.
Running back Travis Etienne's versatility will keep defenses at bay, and the offensive line's consistency will help with run blocking. Etienne, slot receiver Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram will be called upon to help Jacksonville improve its production in the red zone after missing out on so many points in 2023.
Losing bet: Defense
Jacksonville has revamped its stopping unit and has new coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who plans to increase the intensity of the offense by combining different fronts, increasing press coverage on receivers and applying more pass pressure. While it all sounds good on paper, there will be a learning curve, especially with all the personnel changes.
The schedule won't do much to ease the growing pains, with a plethora of strong scoring attacks early on, with Nielsen's defense facing Miami, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Detroit before the bye week in Week 12. JAX could be vulnerable to big plays if defenses are careless in applying pressure.
Jacksonville Jaguars Schedule + Spot Bet: Pack your suitcase
Forget for a moment about the opponents on the Jaguars' early-season schedule. The schedule is already stacked against this team, with just two true home games in the first seven weeks of 2024. Three of the first five games will be on the road before the annual cross-country trip to London in Weeks 6 and 7.
Now, let's look at the teams Jacksonville will face. Aside from competitive games against Houston and Indianapolis in the AFC South, the Jaguars' schedule is chock full of playoff contenders. And many of those tough games will come on the road (Miami, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Detroit).
Given the shaky approach and competition the Jaguars are taking on both offense and defense, it feels like there are signs of an over for this team. If the stopping unit burns out on big plays, Lawrence and the offense will have to give it their all. Five of the 17 projected totals are over 47 points, and four of those have come in the opening six games.
Week Date Opponent 1 Sun Sep 8 @ Miami 2 Sun Sep 15 vs. Cleveland 3 Mon Sep 23 @ Buffalo 4 Sun Sep 29 @ Houston 5 Sun Oct 6 vs. Indianapolis 6 Sun Oct 13 vs. Chicago (London) 7 Sun Oct 20 vs. New England (London) 8 Sun Oct 27 vs. Green Bay 9 Sun Nov 3 @ Philadelphia 10 Sun Nov 10 vs. Minnesota 11 Sun Nov 17 @ Detroit 12 Bye Week N/A 13 Sun Dec 1 vs. Houston 14 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 15 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 16 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 17 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 18 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 19 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 20 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 21 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 22 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 23 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 24 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 25 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 26 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 27 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 28 Sun Dec 2 vs. Houston 29 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 30 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 31 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 32 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 33 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 34 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 35 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 36 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 37 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 38 Sun Dec 3 vs. Houston 39 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 40 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 41 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 42 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 43 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 44 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 45 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 46 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 47 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 48 Sun Dec 4 vs. Houston 49 Sun Dec 5 vs Sun. 8 @ Tennessee 15 Sun. Dec. 15 vs. New York (Jets) 16 Sun. Dec. 22 @ Las Vegas 17 Sun. Dec. 29 vs. Tennessee 18 Sun. Jan. 5 @ Indianapolis
Spot bets: Week 4 vs Houston (+3.5, 47.5)
By the end of this AFC South showdown, we'll know where the Jaguars stand in the AFC.
Jacksonville's trip to Houston will see them play two consecutive away games and three away games in the first four weeks, as well as coming off a short break after playing Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
For better or worse, the Texans have dominated the Jaguars. Jacksonville is just 4-16 SU and 8-12 ATS against Houston since 2014.
Enacting Laws
Market Win MVP +3,000 Win OPOY +7,500 Lead NFL in passing TDs +3,000 Lead NFL in passing yards +2,500 Lead NFL in INTs +1,200 Market 22.5+ passing TDs +115 Under 22.5 passing TDs -135 25+ passing TDs +180 30+ passing TDs +800 Market 3,800.5+ passing yards +105 Under 3,800.5 passing yards -125 4,000+ passing yards +160 4,500+ passing yards +1,300
Best Prop: 22.5+ Touchdown Passes (+115)
Red-zone struggles were a big issue for the Jaguars late in the season — just 12 of Trevor Lawrence's 21 touchdown passes came inside the 20-yard line — and capitalizing on those opportunities will be a major focus heading into 2024.
While injuries have been partially to blame for Lawrence's slump, as long as he's healthy, there's a good chance the Jaguars' $275 million man could threaten to total 22.5 touchdowns. He'll spread the field more, but that could play to his strengths and land him multiple appearances in shootouts against elite offensive lines.
Player projections for T-Law's touchdown total are in the conservative 23-24 scoring strike range. If Lawrence can avoid drive-ruining turnovers and overcome his red zone slump, I think the ceiling could be even higher.
Jacksonville Jaguars Trending: London Under
The Jaguars will play two games in London for the second consecutive season as owner Shahid Khan strives to promote the game internationally and position the team as the face of English football.
Jacksonville is no stranger to the road, but it hasn't been an advantage in terms of wins or ATS success, going 3-3 SU and ATS in games played in the UK since 2018. But a total trend is emerging for the Jaguars on overseas soil.
The team has played under the total points allowed in their last six games in London since 2018 and has an over/under record of 0-2 in 2023. In those games, the average total points allowed is 37.8 points and the average over/under total points allowed is 45 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars London game
Week 6 vs. Chicago (47.5) Week 7 vs. New England (42.5)
It is not intended for use in MA.
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