He is perhaps the only licensed handicapper who has predicted every race at Colonial Downs since opening day and is looking to do even more in 2024. Nick's predictions will be back with his daily Colonial Downs predictions and analysis.
Date/Start Time: July 11th/11:45 (steeplechase), first flat race at 1:30 Races: 12 Carryover: Pick 6, $7,936
Race 1
Some newbies here have been looking for a fast Colonial surface on dirt for a while now.
7. River Ridge The favorite in Saturday's opening race started promisingly on a fast surface before slowing down on a muddy surface. 1. Street Earnings Scatse's grey has been good for a long time but is now shortened to six furlongs after a slightly longer run. Garad is back. 8. Mr. Claus Munoz might look to the turf to find the best of the three-year-olds.
Race 2
The event is a 2-year-old turf sprint featuring debutants and horses who have previously raced at Colonial, with both cross-entrants passing on Tuesday.
2. Seger Songs: Even though she raced before, this Don't Turn the Page Against the Wind Brion mare can still walk with confidence. 5. Love Music: Stidham's stable seems to be gaining momentum lately, especially with Curtis riding. Sharp has been working on a variety of tracks. 8. Rose of a Nation: This Des Ormeaux mare is highly rated by Tomlinson, backed by Constitution bloodline, and is back on turf after a reliable first start.
Race 3
In the Dirt Allowance, Optional Claimer will run a mile, but a well-bred, less raced mare may be more attractive there.
4. The Overwish Repole filly won seven furlongs by more than six lengths at Laurel and will have her second thoughts about the same distance at Colonial. 2. Divinely: Bolt hasn't been bad at all since his meaningful win at Churchill Downs in June, and McCarthy will likely find a better race this time around. 5. Runaway: The 3-year-old son of Deeva Runhappy returns to dirt where he won his first race and says he likes morning racing.
Race 4
Of the 10 runners, several 2-year-olds who raced at the Colonial will benefit from some experience racing on turf.
3. Sea Lion Let's hope Tyler Conner races better with the Yoshida-bred filly for Kelsey Danner. 6. A very similar race on the same day in Let the Sunshine Incolonial, a Trombetta filly nearly won, with Karamanos back in the mix. 4. Disco Rules A sharp race at Churchill in early July has Riley considering running Diane Manning's Constitution filly in the state.
Race 5
The 12 claimers, two of which are winless, are made up primarily of young horses, most of whom raced at Colonial Race Course this summer.
1. Ida One of two Bayles-trained horses from the Boss Kuhn/Smith stable. A disappointing first win but looked good today. 9. Tres Francais Delacour A mare who also had a disappointing first win but should be a real threat at a mile instead of 16th at 1. 11. Katakana From the dirt at Charlestown to the soft turf at Colonial, Figgins' mare won her last race.
Race 6
Two Trombetta mares are at the center of a field of 10 Virginia-only claimers running one mile over a firm course.
8. Lady Ensign Stepping out of a stable race over five and a half furlongs, Country Life's “Lady” now has top-notch power. 10. Beautiful Gorgeous Orestorm filly won at Colonial Downs last summer and is rested, ready and wearing blinkers. 6. That Girl Artemus Schoenthal is coming off a good weekend with two wins and is trying something different with his filly Exaggerator.
Nick's Note
Picks follow below. Shhh! Nick's picks were net positive, truly net positive, for four straight days. The win rate for top picks in this event is just under 30% but the ROI is above par. Kudos to him for winning 10 of 17 stakes races. Don't talk to the pitcher. With Tricari's win in the Secretariat Stakes at the Colonial Racing Festival, trainers Gary Williams, Mary Eppler, Ferris Allen and now Graham Motion have one thing in common: a win in this event at Colonial Downs and a win on Colonial's Grand Opening Day on September 1, 1997. As many know, trainer Tim Keefe, who won the first race at Colonial Downs with MacGyver, will start the event today on the eighth hole with Tammy's Magic. Trainer James Lawrence also won on Colonial Race Course's grand opening day and has a chance to win three times this weekend. How about a group photo? Trainer Larry Rivelli, who won the trainer's title at Colonial Downs in 2022 after moving his stable from Arlington Park, entered Sendero in Saturday's fifth race for his first start at the track. In 2022, Rivelli won his first start at Colonial Downs. The two-year-old horse that brought him this victory was none other than Two Fillies, who placed second in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
Race 7
The field is heavily influenced by steeplechase races and 12 maiden horses are keeping an eye on Saville's veteran horse off the AE list, Rum Tum Tugger, who raced on Wednesday.
11. Ganado After two strong wins for Brown Stable last spring, the older Ganado is coming off a solid Colonial training run before making his debut in 2024. 12. British Sea Lion's English Channel has run well on turf courses in deep fields recently, except when he was a little upstaged. 8. Bourbon Strait Expect a bit of improvement from Kingsley's English Channel running the extra 16th hole as Ashton gets to know the gelding.
Race 8
Ten Virginia 2-year-olds, limited to 10 horses, will sprint across the turf at Colonial Race Course, either making their first race or having raced previously.
2. Beyond QuestionBonne Fille won the opening race, which should be a good race, and Trombetta's mare was in the lead. 6. Greek Singhard Given Span's pedigree, it may be a stretch to call her a bridge between generations, but Sibelli's mare should be close to the top on turf. 7. Lost RiverLost River was switched to turf for the opening race and made a sharp turn. With Special K on board, she should be considered for a place higher than third.
Race 9
The veteran claimer has had nine starters and has two wins each in his most recent starts, showing some positive progress.
7. EnamWheeler's Enam is back on break to be reunited with spring winning jockey Ashton. 8. My Great IllusionCrighton's Get Stormy son is back on break and has two wins at Tampa this spring. 5. Ballyhoo PrinceThe frequently check-cashing Newsh veteran won his last start at Laurel and his last start at Colonial nearly two years apart.
Race 10
Twelve virgin horses will run over a mile on turf in the final race, and nearly all of them have been seen at Colonial Downs at least once during the tournament.
3. She's an Arrodeo Queen. The Tomlinson filly had a solid performance in her turf debut despite the twisty conditions at Colonial. 10. Digital Tradeback Class might be a strong choice despite being an older, winless horse rested by a very underrated jockey. 2. Change of Order. A slight drop in class at Colonial for her first start might be all this Vino Rosso filly needs to win.
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