This week marks three years since the US withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban returned to power.
The United States intervened in Afghanistan following the al-Qaida terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, with the goal of combating international terrorism and creating a new world order to make the world a safer and more secure place.
But as I argue in my new book, How to Lose a War: The Story of America's Involvement in Afghanistan, the world today is arguably more conflicted and polarized than it was during the Cold War, and we may be on the brink of a new world war.
America's Goals and Failures
Supported by NATO and non-NATO allies, and broad global sympathy, the primary goals of the United States in Afghanistan were to:
We will eliminate al-Qaida, dismantle the extreme extremist Taliban regime that protects al-Qaida, and help transform Afghanistan so that it will never again become a hotbed of international terrorism.
Success in Afghanistan was intertwined with two broader US foreign policy goals under the administration of Republican President George W. Bush: fighting global terrorism and promoting democracy. Both of these were instruments of change in the Middle East, and indeed the world, in line with US interests as the sole post-Cold War superpower.
In the end, the United States failed to achieve any of these goals.
Initially, with the support of anti-Taliban Afghan forces, they achieved military victories, toppling the Taliban government and ousting al-Qaeda, but the leaders of both groups, Mullahs Mohammed Omar and Osama bin Laden, and their key operatives fled to Pakistan.
The Taliban quickly regrouped and, with Pakistan's backing and continuing alliance with al-Qaida, launched an insurgency that exceeded the expectations of the United States and its allies, including the nascent Afghan government in Kabul.
The United States initially did not intend to stay in Afghanistan for more than a few years, but its failure to destroy al-Qaida early in its intervention led to a decade-long hunt for bin Laden and a deep commitment to the difficult task of nation-building in a socially divided, traditionalist country.
Without ensuring that Afghanistan was stable, secure, and firmly on a democratic track, the Bush administration invaded Iraq in 2003 under the false assumption that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was in collusion with bin Laden and possessed weapons of mass destruction.
Iraq was given priority over Afghanistan, resulting in the transfer of important intelligence and military assets from the latter to the former.
The lack of a well-thought-out plan of action to bring peace to Afghanistan and Iraq has led the US to become embroiled in two unwinnable wars, leaving it with no option but to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011 and from Afghanistan by August 2021 without achieving its original objectives.
Two countries have also collapsed: Iraq is still struggling to recover, and Afghanistan is in chaos under the Taliban.
The defeat in Afghanistan has been every bit as humiliating for the United States as the devastating Vietnam War 50 years ago.
Taliban extremism
The Taliban's 2.0 tribal government has proven to be just as terrifyingly radical and discriminatory as their previous reign of terror from 1996 to 2001.
They profess a self-centered, self-serving version of Islam that is practiced nowhere else in the Muslim world. Women are stripped of every basic right (including education and work). Any form of opposition is brutally suppressed. Other minorities, along with remnants of the previous US-backed regime, are punished daily. Many are killed.
The group has turned Afghanistan into a sanctuary for al-Qaida and several other like-minded groups, including the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP).
A new survey by the United Nations Mission in Afghanistan found that only 4% of respondents want the Taliban to be recognised internationally, making the group as ostracized internationally as it is lacking legitimacy at home.
However, the group has been successful in exploiting regional and major power geopolitical rivalries and ambitions to consolidate its power in Afghanistan and thwart outside pressure.
A more unstable world
The Taliban's resurgence has greatly emboldened and inspired like-minded groups in many parts of the Muslim world, such as the TTP and ISKP, while the US defeat in Afghanistan has emboldened its main adversaries: Iran, Russia, China and North Korea.
Washington's unwavering determination to ensure Israel's security and failure to end the devastating Gaza war have further emboldened extremist forces in the Islamic world and emboldened America's enemies.
Rising tensions between Israel and Iran and its allies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, seriously threaten the stability and security of this traditionally volatile region. A war between Israel and Iran could see the United States step in to defend Israel, with Russia and China supporting Iran.
This is not a scenario in which the Middle East and the world can be optimistic.
Amin Saikal is Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at the Australian National University.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
