When preparing for your fantasy football draft, it's important to know which players to target and which to avoid. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine which players to draft and which to leave to their leaguemates is to use our expert fantasy football rankings compared to the fantasy football average draft position (ADP). This way, you can identify which players our experts are willing to take at their ADP and which players they won't draft until much later than average. Below, we'll take a closer look at a few notable fantasy football players that our experts are targeting.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
In his first five years as an NFL starter, Patrick Mahomes averaged 24.0 fantasy points per game. Last year, in his sixth year as the Chiefs' starting quarterback, Mahomes averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in the league in that category.
The reason is simple. Kansas City had the worst wide receiver corps in the league. WR Russie Rice had a good rookie season, but he was an artificial touch, catch-and-run guy. Rice had fewer than 500 yards through the air last year. The rest of the Chiefs receivers were, in medical terms, terrible players.
The Chiefs signed speedy wide receiver Marquis “Hollywood” Brown in free agency. They moved up a few spots in the first round to draft wide receiver Xavier Worthy from the University of Texas, who broke the combine record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash. The addition of his pass-catching talent should propel Mahomes back into elite fantasy status.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
Breece Hall is my No. 1 ranked running back in fantasy football this season, and if you're holding a mid-first round pick, you'll almost certainly select the Jets' third-year running back.
Through 18 weeks of NFL play, Hall finished second among all running backs in scrimmage yards, first in receptions (76), targets and receiving yards, and seventh in points per game (14.9). Let's not forget that in the final game of the 2023 season, Week 18, Hall totaled 39 touches for 190 yards and one TD to help end the Jets' losing streak against the Patriots. Hall rushed for 178 yards against the NFL's No. 1 run defense. Drop the mic.
And all of his 2023 honors came despite ranking second-to-last in rushing success rate (39.5%) with fewer than 300 touches (299, seventh). The situation was terrible, but Hall still found a way.
Let's not forget that quarterback Aaron Rodgers missed nearly the entire season and the offensive line had the second-most injuries. With Rodgers back under center and a healthier, improved offensive line with the additions of Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson and Olu Fashanu, the sky is the limit for Hall in 2024. And let's not forget he'll turn 23 at the end of May.
The reason I prefer Hall over the other top 3 running backs (Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey) is because of his predictable health. As mentioned above, the Jets are looking for significantly improved injury luck in 2024, while the other top running backs may not be so lucky.
The Falcons were the healthiest offense last season, with neither running back missing a game with injury (aside from Bijan's headaches).
The 49ers were the fourth-healthiest team in 2023, second only to Atlanta in overall offense. For the first time in 10 seasons, they finished above 20th in adjusted games lost, a metric that quantifies injury losses in the NFL, similar to DVOA by FTN's Aaron Schatz. McCaffrey also led the NFL in touches. Of the running backs who have led the NFL in touches since 2013, only two have become RB1 the following year; Ezekiel Elliott is the only one to finish in the top five in that span.
– Andrew Erickson
Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)
Brian Robinson has been neglected this offseason. With the addition of Austin Ekeler and the rushing quarterbacks, everyone is burying him in the ranks and putting holes in his 2024 prospects. Well, I'm not going to get on that train to Obibioin. Robinson is underrated on many levels, especially considering how well he performed on film and on paper last year. His overall 2023 stats don't reflect how great he was last season. Robinson was RB14th in fantasy points per opportunity and RB22nd in fantasy points per game. He also stands out in the efficiency categories, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact (per fantasy points data).
Robinson averaged 15.5 touches and 77.9 yards per game in 12 games in which he played more than 40% of the snaps. He quietly showed his third-down skills last season and proved he can make plays on passing downs, ranking fifth in yards per route run and 12th in PFF's pass-blocking grade (20+ targets, 50+ pass-blocking snaps). Robinson will have a clear advantage on early downs and in the red zone, and he should eat into Ekeler's routes in the passing game. He's a solid RB2 with the potential to surpass those rankings.
– Derek Brown
Drake London (WR – ATL)
It's time for Rondon to make a breakthrough. With Kirk Cousins under center and Zach Robinson directing the play this season, and a revamped offensive approach, his potential is huge. Rondon's numbers last year were decent but not spectacular, as quarterback play held him back. The Falcons quarterbacks had the fourth-lowest adjusted completion percentage and third-lowest catchable target rate.
Rondon posted a 1.98 YPRR (32nd) while ranking 27th in FD/RR and in the top 25 in first lead share (20th) and target share (25th). After reviewing his film for 2023, I have no doubt that the same player who put up monster numbers as a rookie is still here. Rondon is realizing his huge potential this year. Enjoy the breakout.
– Derek Brown
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Tyreek Hill will be at the top of almost every 2024 fantasy football draft, but Jaylen Waddle will be drafted much later after his worst pro season ever. WR34 overall and WR24 in points per game. But Miami's speedster was in the top 10 in touch rate per snap and had over 1,000 yards receiving in just 14 games. The problem is he only scored four times. But his 24% target share is still excellent. He also recorded career highs in yards per route run (6th) and PFF receiving grade (5th). Simply put, no offense puts players in favorable situations on a play-by-play basis like Miami, at least weather permitting. This offense is expected to be hyped up in the season opener against the Jaguars, Bills, Seahawks and Titans, three of which are home games before the Week 6 bye week. Overall, Miami's 12-week schedule is the second-easiest in the NFL, according to Sharp Football.
Waddle is a great option to acquire on the cheap in a powerful Dolphins offense, and his resume includes three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and two top-13 WR finishes.
– Andrew Erickson
Jake Ferguson (WR – DAL)
As I said in my previous recommendation of Dak Prescott, I believe the Cowboys will likely be pass-heavy this year. Ferguson finished last season with 71 catches for 761 yards and five touchdowns, good for 8th among TEs in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. He was 6th among TEs from Week 8 through the end of the season.
The Cowboys didn't make any major offseason moves at wide receiver or tight end, so Ferguson's role remains stable, making him a great replacement if they're unable to acquire a top tight end.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Must-have draft picks according to experts
Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus rankings for the 2024 fantasy football draft from our experts.
