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WNBA (0.5 units) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (+100; odds via DraftKings): 1 pm CST, on CBS
The two teams have met twice this season, with Washington posting very solid scores of 67 and 68 points, including 36 and 37 points before halftime, though both games were played at Target Center, so it's unclear if those point totals are enough to compensate for Washington's performance in home games, which doesn't seem to matter which team is visiting D.C. The Mystics have had a strong first half in home games this season.
Washington is averaging 45.0 first-half points per game at home and has topped that total in nine straight games, 10-2. An even better defense than Minnesota's got beaten early by a Mystics team that typically hits a ton of 3-pointers, and with Carly Samuelson back in the lineup and fully healthy, the Mystics should have the home-court momentum they need to get past that total.
MLB (0.6 units) Minnesota Twins/Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-120; odds via DraftKings): 6:05 pm CST on Bally Sports North
This game features two of the worst hitting teams and two quietly solid starting pitchers, and I think that combination will lead to another slow start tonight. The Twins have won two games so far in Texas, and David Festa should start strong again. They had a tough start to the season, but they've been good over their last four games, and with the Rangers struggling against right-handed pitchers, Festa should continue that form here.
However, the Twins will not be great offensively against a good right-handed pitcher, and Nathan Eovaldi's 3.09 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and .193 on-base percentage at home are very impressive. Both teams' offensive lines will struggle, and it will be another pitcher's duel early in Arlington.
NFL Preseason (0.5 units) Arizona Cardinals/Indianapolis Colts over 36.5 (-110, odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CST, NFL+
Preseason handicapping is almost always a very tough guessing game, but we know that Shane Steichen likes to make these games high-scoring. The young Colts coach is now 4-0 in preseason games with no games under 40 points, including last week's shootout against Denver. In that game, all of the Indianapolis quarterbacks took their chances and were all trusted to throw the ball and run a fast-paced offense. If we can see Kyler Murray in this game, he'll really stress a weak Colts defense, so either way, I think it paves the way for a lot of points here.
Degenerate
There are no corrupters today.
Tiny Nick has earned +99.7 units with the Lock since being in zone coverage.
Each day he presents a lock and a degenerate pick, with lock being the game he is most confident in, and degenerate being the more interesting but riskier pick.
