Though the Yankees were shut out by the Tigers on Saturday, they remain one of the hottest teams in baseball and will look to make it three straight series wins when they face the Tigers on Sunday night in Williamsport at 7:10 p.m. ET in the Little League Classic.
Now, let's make some predictions for Yankees vs Tigers.
A win would help New York stay one game behind Baltimore in the AL East and also help Marcus Stroman improve after struggling in his last few games.
Yankees vs Tigers odds
Sunday, August 18
7:10pm ET
ESPN
Yankees Odds Money Line Total Run Line
+104
8
-110 / -110
+1.5
-205
Tigers Odds Money Line Total Run Line
-122
8
-110 / -110
-1.5
+170
Yankees vs Tigers predicted starting pitchers
RHP Marcus Stroman (NYY) StatsLHP Tarik Skubal (DET)8-6W-L14-40.2fWAR (FanGraphs)4.44.01/4.95ERA /xERA2.53/2.825.15/4.78FIP / xFIP2.64/2.891.40WHIP0.926.7%K-BB%25.5%48.9%GB%45%92Stuff+10496Location+103For more previews of today's games, check out our MLB Betting Hub.
Kenny Ducey's Yankees vs. Tigers preview
New York Yankees betting predictions: Favorable matchups for Marcus Stroman
Stroman had his worst period of the season against the Yankees in August. The right-hander gave up 17 hits and 12 runs (10 earned) in just six innings over two games against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Many expected Stroman's performance to be a big drag, as he has been a fairly lucky pitcher this year, but facing two teams that can do damage against ground-ball pitchers took a toll on his performance.
He did much better a week ago against the ground-ball-hating Rangers, giving up just one run on four hits, and has now not allowed a home run in two straight games. As an extreme ground-ball pitcher, he faces these bad matchups from time to time, but when he does, his lack of strikeouts and high walks make it hard to see a way out of his predicament.
But that won't be the case Sunday. The Tigers are second-worst in the majors in OPS behind ground-ball hitters and last in splits, with an abysmal .206 average. For reference, that's about 60 points below the league median, and the contact-oriented right-hander should help keep the Yankees heading in the right direction.
Offensively, they've stalled a bit, scoring just three runs over the past two days against the Tigers, but the Yankees are the third-best team in the league with a 131 wRC+ over the past two weeks and are also ahead in the strikeout and walk departments. They also have the best slugging percentage of any team in the league with a .219 ISO, and it's been nearly two months since New York has been hitting strong despite some inconsistent results.
Detroit Tigers betting predictions: Tarik Skubal is a real ace
The Tigers will come into this game with a huge advantage, entrusting the ball to one of the league's best pitchers, Tarik Skubal, who has an impressive 2.82 xERA thanks to an impressive 30.5% strikeout rate and a high rate of soft-hit grounders.
Skubal is still posting an impressive .211 batting average despite his worst statistical month of the year. He slowed a bit in August with a 3.72 ERA, but still struck out 26 in 19 1/3 innings. His issues stem from a poor performance against the Royals on August 2, when he gave up five runs on seven hits and two walks. And most importantly, he has given up home runs in three of his last four games.
Still, you can expect Skubal to pound the team that dominated him in May, when he struck out 12 batters in six innings and allowed just two earned runs. New York has been noticeably worse against lefties this year, ranking 13th in wRC+ compared to third in reverse splits, and nearly 50 points lower in isolated power, despite a strikeout rate about a point higher.
Detroit has had its fair share of issues against ground ball pitchers, but they'll at least come into this one strong, having ranked 12th in the major leagues in wRC+ over the past week with 112. They've also posted an impressive ISO of .203 over that time, in addition to a low 5% walk rate and more strikeouts.
Yankees vs Tigers Prediction: Bet on the Under
Unlike other neutral venues that have been handicapped in the past, Muncie Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport appears fairly normal in construction: 323 feet to left field, 331 feet to right field and 411 feet to center field. After two high-scoring Classic openers in 2017 and 2018, eight or fewer points were scored in each of the next four games, averaging just 6.5 points per game.
As a result, I'm going to play this one pretty straight forward and probably give it more credit if both pitchers are even. Given what I've said above, I think both pitchers are in great form. The Yankees have notoriously struggled against lefties and this year they need to find a way to break through against a pitcher who tormented them earlier this year and is coming off a Cy Young Award-caliber season.
Meanwhile, Detroit doesn't have the same caliber of teams that have dominated Stroman in recent starts, and the Tigers have a terrible record against groundball pitchers and can't even draw walks, so the right-hander should have an easy win.
As a result, I think we’ll see another under at Muncie Bank Ballpark.
Money Line
The Tigers were projected to be slight favorites in this game and some had them winning, but the big money is on the Yankees. 86% of the money is on New York, even though only 41% of bettors are on them. Still, the line is definitely leaning towards Detroit, even though it was initially expected.
Run Line (Spread)
Sure, the Tigers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, but the trend to know here is that the underdog Yankees have won the run line in 82.6% of their games and are an impressive 19-4 record.
Over/Under
In games where the Yankees have entered as underdogs, the under is 14-8-1 and has turned a profit in three of their last four games. The Tigers have also played four straight games as under, and we are tracking a smart bet to bet on the under in this one.
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About the Author
Kenny Ducey, a leading expert on tennis betting and MLB handicapping, has developed an online following through his work with the Tennis Channel and his experience covering baseball for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. With over a decade of experience that includes covering the New York Knicks and Yankees for Fordham University's WFUV Radio, Ducey writes betting previews for the Action Network and is a digital contributor to the Tennis Channel. He has also worked for NBC Sports and DraftKings.
Follow Kenny Ducey @kennyducey on Twitter/X.
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