With Russia facing defeat in the Kursk Offensive in Ukraine, Germany is set to cut military aid to its struggling ally by 94 percent over the next three years. The influential Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper reported, citing reliable sources, that German aid to Ukraine will fall from £6.8 billion now to £425 million by 2027, sparking accusations of betrayal in Germany. So far there has been no official denial from Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ruling centre-left coalition.
In Kiev, the report has been dismissed as a “manipulation” concocted by pro-Russian forces. But Germany is already planning to halve its financial aid to Ukraine next year, and this forecast follows the same trajectory. The usual excuses will be offered: Germany is required by law to balance its budget, the coalition government is hopelessly divided, war fatigue has eroded public support for Ukraine, etc.
All of this is true, but it does not quite explain why a country that has previously prided itself on being Europe's largest donor, and second only to the United States in the world, is now abdicating its responsibilities.
The official line is that Germany will commit its role to Europe as a whole, which is the path of least resistance. In practice, this means replacing real military equipment with vague promises that may never be delivered. At the G7 summit in June, a provisional agreement was reached to provide Ukraine with a €50 billion loan, secured by $300 billion (£230 billion) of frozen Russian assets. But from Kiev's point of view, the loan plan is just a pipe dream.
The success of Ukraine's invasion of Russia took Berlin by surprise. Zelensky's fighters, turning the tide against the Russian invaders, sent the Germans into a frenzy. For the Germans, the words “Kursk Offensive” evoke the ghosts of the past: in July 1943, on the same battlefield, Hitler lost the largest tank battle in history. Putin's propaganda machine denigrates the Zelensky regime as “Nazis.” Now German tanks may return to Kursk. In Washington, Germany's abandonment of Ukraine will strengthen isolationist sentiment and give impetus to Donald Trump's claims of a free ride in Europe. In Moscow, it signals that Putin is just waiting for Ukraine to run out of arms and ammunition.
Germany, the world's third-largest economy, can afford to increase its aid to Ukraine — less than 0.2 percent of its $5 trillion GDP — but Mr. Scholz is continuing the old Ostpolitik of appeasing Putin, begun under Gerhard Schröder and continued by Chancellor Angela Merkel. This could be Mr. Scholz's Munich moment.
Next year's federal elections, which likely see Scholz replaced as chancellor by his centre-right rival Friedrich Merz, could offer Germany a chance to rally together the Western alliance in the Cold War tradition of Adenauer, Schmidt and Kohl, but Merz seems hell-bent on returning to business as usual with Russia.
Germany is irreplaceable in Europe. France has no government, and both the far-left and the far-right are pro-Russian. Sir Keir Starmer seems more interested in Gaza and may quietly withdraw military support, following Germany's example. Zelensky will act alone if necessary, and is more confident of victory, especially with F-16 fighter jets soon to be deployed. But Germany is effectively telling Zelensky to sue for peace on Putin's terms, no matter how dire the consequences for Ukraine, Europe and the West.
